Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Queequeg]

Lviv is different, geographically and culturally. The Carpathians are the most obvious site for potential anti-Russian insurgency but Rusyns aren't reflexively hostile to Moscow in the same way.

Kiev is different. It is close to the border. Chernihiv-Kyiv isn't an odyssey.

I don't think Putin would go that far West. His schtick is to "protect Russians", and there's not many of them over there, so he'd have even less legitimacy. And as was noted, a force of 40,000 (plus possibly 25,000 in Crimea) isn't anywhere near enough to occupy the whole country. I'm guessing he's going for Donetsk/Lugansk/Kharkiv, minimum, up to Odessa/Transnistria maximum.

I'm not saying he is, I agree with you. I am just saying that if he wanted to it wouldn't be difficult.

[Queequeg]

Lviv is different, geographically and culturally. The Carpathians are the most obvious site for potential anti-Russian insurgency but Rusyns aren't reflexively hostile to Moscow in the same way.

Kiev is different. It is close to the border. Chernihiv-Kyiv isn't an odyssey.

It just boggles my mind the Ukrainians would be eager to join (and not resist at all) the country responsible, on multiple occasions, with the systematic massacre of their people.  I don't buy it.  People are hardcore in that part of the world, the Russians will have to mass murder again if they want to take the Ukraine.

Putin's administration would crack under the pressure of the counterinsurgency effort west of Kiev. That's why he's not going to do that I think.

[Syt]

Btw, it's rather interesting to see who little Putin says during all of this. There's been very few comments directly from him, and most of the talking is done by Lavrov. Putin saves himself up for the big announcements.

He has a public Q&A on TV scheduled for 17th April it seems, so it should be interesting to see what happens until then or what he announces in that forum.

[Tamas]

Btw, it's rather interesting to see who little Putin says during all of this. There's been very few comments directly from him, and most of the talking is done by Lavrov. Putin saves himself up for the big announcements.

He has a public Q&A on TV scheduled for 17th April it seems, so it should be interesting to see what happens until then or what he announces in that forum.

The Hungarian PM Orban has been operating the exact same way. If there is even a miniscule chance of some thing not being popular, he is nowhere to be seen around it. But if it is a surefire good thing popularity wise, he is there to take personal credit no matter what it was.

[Legbiter]

The only thing less surprising than all the usual Languish pro-Russian cocksuckery is the typical Euro-racism against Ukrainians.

Eh, Russia probably cashed out Rinat Akhmedov so why should the locals try to play the hero when the bossman sure as shit isn't going to.

[derspiess]

So how is UKIP fascist again?

[OttoVonBismarck]

I just am continually shocked at how toothless Ukraine is, I knew they were not on par with Russia but they literally have a military that is non-functional. I don't understand how a country that borders a Russia that has in the past invaded other enemies and even referred to Ukraine as "not a real country" could basically have a military force weaker than a big city police department in the United States.

That's one thing I do think Poland has going for it, they've spent a shit ton on their military and have been increasing that spending every year. Relative to the size of their country, they have a big military with advanced armor, anti-tank, anti-air and other equipment. I don't think Russia will actually try anything with Poland, because if Russian speaking dudes in unmarked uniforms started coming in I think the Poles would quite simply just kill them. If Russia wants to invade Poland it would have to do it the old fashioned way, and I suspect the losses in such an invasion would be enough to make it not worth it to Putin. It's possible it could even be repulsed given the high technological capacity of the Polish military.

But it will indeed be interesting to see how many countries Putin can just invade by sending special forces units over as "protesters" in organized actions. I think it can only realistically be done in countries with any kind of significant Russian minority, which probably also is something working in Poland's favor as they don't have any kind of major Russian population or Russian enclaves like the Baltics do.

[DGuller]

Oil wealth or no oil wealth, they're still heavily reliant on Soviet methodology, their first echelon units are few and far between, and geographically the Ukraine is not the phone booth that Georgia was.  40,000 cossacks arent going to be able to get the job done.

You people are talking like it's 1983 all over again.  The Russian bear has no real teeth.

Let's assume that Russia is all that.  Ukraine is still more dysfunctional than Russia, and by an order of magnitude.  Russia could prevail just by sending peasants with pitchforks.  Russia has been a poorly organized paper tiger for many centuries, and yet they brought grief to more than a few dominant advanced powers.

[Queequeg]

"Russia is never as weak as you'd hope or as strong as you'd fear."

[DGuller]

Kiev falls in weeks if Russia pushes. Less.

How long Kiev holds out is largely a question of math.  You just need to know the distance between Russian tanks and Kiev, and their average speed.

[Razgovory]

It appears that Ukraine can't even organize a crackdown.

[Tamas]

I just am continually shocked at how toothless Ukraine is, I knew they were not on par with Russia but they literally have a military that is non-functional. I don't understand how a country that borders a Russia that has in the past invaded other enemies and even referred to Ukraine as "not a real country" could basically have a military force weaker than a big city police department in the United States.

That's one thing I do think Poland has going for it, they've spent a shit ton on their military and have been increasing that spending every year. Relative to the size of their country, they have a big military with advanced armor, anti-tank, anti-air and other equipment. I don't think Russia will actually try anything with Poland, because if Russian speaking dudes in unmarked uniforms started coming in I think the Poles would quite simply just kill them. If Russia wants to invade Poland it would have to do it the old fashioned way, and I suspect the losses in such an invasion would be enough to make it not worth it to Putin. It's possible it could even be repulsed given the high technological capacity of the Polish military.

But it will indeed be interesting to see how many countries Putin can just invade by sending special forces units over as "protesters" in organized actions. I think it can only realistically be done in countries with any kind of significant Russian minority, which probably also is something working in Poland's favor as they don't have any kind of major Russian population or Russian enclaves like the Baltics do.

The problem isn't Poland. The problem are the Baltic States. They:
-have significant Russian minorities
-are former Russian/Soviet Empire territory
-are NATO members

[DGuller]

The only thing less surprising than all the usual Languish pro-Russian cocksuckery is the typical Euro-racism against Ukrainians.

I hope you all wake up with a Turk in your bed, buttfucking you Jose Ferrer-style.

Dreaming up scenarios where Russians get slaughtered by, err, someone, isn't going to get us anywhere either.

[mongers]

Oil wealth or no oil wealth, they're still heavily reliant on Soviet methodology, their first echelon units are few and far between, and geographically the Ukraine is not the phone booth that Georgia was.  40,000 cossacks arent going to be able to get the job done.

You people are talking like it's 1983 all over again.  The Russian bear has no real teeth.

Let's assume that Russia is all that.  Ukraine is still more dysfunctional than Russia, and by an order of magnitude.  Russia could prevail just by sending peasants with pitchforks.  Russia has been a poorly organized paper tiger for many centuries, and yet they brought grief to more than a few dominant advanced powers.

Indeed leaving aside how badly and corruptly Russia has been run over the last 25 years, the Ukraine must have been run even worse to be were it is economically. 

The Ukraine isn't without assets, it has large areas of some of the world's most naturally fertile land. With very little inputs, as compared to say some American Prairie states,  this farmland can produce significant crop yields. 

I've read about western agricultural firms buying into Ukrainian farm operations. Given the trend over the last 5-7 years of growing agricultural prices, the Ukraine could have been an agricultural powerhouse by now.

[derspiess]

I just am continually shocked at how toothless Ukraine is, I knew they were not on par with Russia but they literally have a military that is non-functional. I don't understand how a country that borders a Russia that has in the past invaded other enemies and even referred to Ukraine as "not a real country" could basically have a military force weaker than a big city police department in the United States.

They're dirt poor.