Ukraine's European Revolution?

[Ed Anger]

No blood for feet

[DGuller]

I don't understand. Ukraine must die so that Poland may live?

Pretty much.  The West is growing soft, and losing the capability to engage determined and dangerous enemies.  Seeing the example of what happens when you forget that peace can only come from strength will be very helpful, and I'd rather have a useless country die to make that point, rather than a country whose loss would really hurt.

[Valmy]

Pretty much.  The West is growing soft, and losing the capability to engage determined and dangerous enemies.

We always do that.  Who the hell wants to fight a war?  I just don't get why the Russians want to.

[CountDeMoney]

Who the hell wants to fight a war?  I just don't get why the Russians want to.

You're not from that dirtball side of the planet, where ethnicity is everything.

[DGuller]

Pretty much.  The West is growing soft, and losing the capability to engage determined and dangerous enemies.

We always do that.  Who the hell wants to fight a war?  I just don't get why the Russians want to.

You don't need to want to, but you need to be ready to do so when the situation warrants it.  That's where we fail.  Whether it's wise to get involved in Ukraine or not is mostly beside the point;  we will not get involved regardless of what the answer is.

As for why the Russians want to, that's how they function.  We in the west satisfy ourselves with conspicuous consumption;  Russians satisfy themselves by moral values, such as knowing that they live in the country that can fuck other countries up.

[Syt]

Depending on Putin's goals there, I doubt this would be a long conflict. The Crimea scenario seems to repeat (well organized "self defense militias" taking over key points), while the Ukrainian interim government can do little but watch.

They gave the occupiers a deadline last week, which passed without result. The government offered adjusting legislation so that there could be local referendums, as demanded by the occupiers. As response more security and administrative buildings are occupied.

Then the government wanted to take Slavyansk back, but got halted by civilians and a firefight that left one dead and some wounded.

Given this, I doubt that the Ukrainian security forces are in any shape to deal with this situation - not to mention that there might be an unknown number of pro-Russian sympathizers in their ranks. If there is going to be fighting, it's going to be short and end very badly for the Ukraine.

This all plays into the hands of Putin - he makes the "illegal fascist junta" look inept and helpless, while threatening them to not use force in order to avoid escalation.

The real question for me is how much he wants to bite off - just the East? The South East down to Odessa? All of it? Or does he want to create client states like South Ossetia? And after that? Will he go after other Russian minorities abroad?

[Queequeg]

I really doubted Putin's logic initially-I figured that he'd get Eastern and Southern Ukraine after a failed series of economic reforms anyway-but right now I think Ukraine looks so incredibly weak, and the West so incredibly feckless, that I am questioning my initial assessment.  He's gained a huge amount of support back home while giving himself an excuse to clean house, taken however large a bite out of Ukraine, and it looks like the EU will be too chickenshit to do anything.   

[Syt]

Someone on EUOT posted this summary:

[CountDeMoney]

Given this, I doubt that the Ukrainian security forces are in any shape to deal with this situation - not to mention that there might be an unknown number of pro-Russian sympathizers in their ranks. If there is going to be fighting, it's going to be short and end very badly for the Ukraine.

I disagree.  I think the Russians cross the frontier, they get smacked in the face.  Operationally, they're not up to the task.

[11B4V]

War in the East?  WTF?  Ukraine isn't in the East.  It is in Europe.  If there is a war, it would be "War in Ukraine."

So you're not heard about the 101st getting ready to jump over Volgograd?

Silly man, it would be the 82nd.

[Syt]

Given this, I doubt that the Ukrainian security forces are in any shape to deal with this situation - not to mention that there might be an unknown number of pro-Russian sympathizers in their ranks. If there is going to be fighting, it's going to be short and end very badly for the Ukraine.

I disagree.  I think the Russians cross the frontier, they get smacked in the face.  Operationally, they're not up to the task.

With any half way competent country I would agree, but not in Ukraine's case. I think a much bigger deterrent might be the local population. There'll be, percentage wise, much fewer people than in Crimea who'd welcome the Russians with open arms.

[alfred russel]

Given this, I doubt that the Ukrainian security forces are in any shape to deal with this situation - not to mention that there might be an unknown number of pro-Russian sympathizers in their ranks. If there is going to be fighting, it's going to be short and end very badly for the Ukraine.

I disagree.  I think the Russians cross the frontier, they get smacked in the face.  Operationally, they're not up to the task.

Are the Ukrainians in better shape than the Russians? In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.

[Valmy]

Are the Ukrainians in better shape than the Russians? In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.

It takes more competence to attack.

[alfred russel]

Are the Ukrainians in better shape than the Russians? In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.

It takes more competence to attack.

Judging by the control the Ukrainian military seems to have over the east at the moment, it isn't clear they would really be defending either.

[Razgovory]

Given this, I doubt that the Ukrainian security forces are in any shape to deal with this situation - not to mention that there might be an unknown number of pro-Russian sympathizers in their ranks. If there is going to be fighting, it's going to be short and end very badly for the Ukraine.

I disagree.  I think the Russians cross the frontier, they get smacked in the face.  Operationally, they're not up to the task.

So far do you think they'll push into Ukraine before being stopped cold?