Deal with Iran?

[The Brain]

Islamist Nutplace Iran signed the deal because they think it's better for them than not signing it. It is not obvious that we should celebrate things that benefit Iran.

[Berkut]

If you cannot accept even the possibility that diplomacy could be a more than zero sum game, there really isn't any reason to engage in it at all, is there?

[The Brain]

See how this works?

[Legbiter]

I think it's a good deal with a possibility of an even better one some months down the road. Very well worth a shot.

Netanyahu might need to have his leash yanked meanwhile.

[Razgovory]

Unfortunately like so many Languishites, Minsky's buying into the revisionist hype.  Iran may not be as big on promoting the Revolution as it was 30 years ago, but it is most definitely in the Aspiring Regional Hegemon business as both a conventional power and a proxy daddy, and that is not going to go away anytime soon.

Of course this agreement is a great deal for Iran:  it gets to buy positive international PR by signing, it gets to buy shampoo with the loosening of sanctions, it gets to buy time for its weapons program.  IAEA inspections and verification processes are time-consuming, easily challenged, blocked and obfuscated and the enforcement and appeals process is an international bureaucratic paper pile heaven if you want to drag your feet.  It's designed to be useless.

The HMIC and the IRG don't give a shit about sanctions anyway.  Just like the North Korean elite they're immune to them, and Iran's sanctions are much more porous.

I agree that they wish to be a power in the region, but that's nothing special.  Most countries in the region want to be the big dog.  I think the Elite are very conscious of the sanctions.  First off, they can't be a big dog with the sanctions hobbling growth and secondly, unlike North Korea they aren't a Stalinist dictatorship.  While not a free democracy, they elites lack the control over the country that that the North Korean Government has.

I also think that Iran is a natural ally of the US.  The Islamic Revolution is sort of an aberration, I think we have an opportunity to shift Iran back our way.

[Barrister]

Unfortunately like so many Languishites, Minsky's buying into the revisionist hype.  Iran may not be as big on promoting the Revolution as it was 30 years ago, but it is most definitely in the Aspiring Regional Hegemon business as both a conventional power and a proxy daddy, and that is not going to go away anytime soon.

Of course this agreement is a great deal for Iran:  it gets to buy positive international PR by signing, it gets to buy shampoo with the loosening of sanctions, it gets to buy time for its weapons program.  IAEA inspections and verification processes are time-consuming, easily challenged, blocked and obfuscated and the enforcement and appeals process is an international bureaucratic paper pile heaven if you want to drag your feet.  It's designed to be useless.

The HMIC and the IRG don't give a shit about sanctions anyway.  Just like the North Korean elite they're immune to them, and Iran's sanctions are much more porous.

I agree that they wish to be a power in the region, but that's nothing special.  Most countries in the region want to be the big dog.  I think the Elite are very conscious of the sanctions.  First off, they can't be a big dog with the sanctions hobbling growth and secondly, unlike North Korea they aren't a Stalinist dictatorship.  While not a free democracy, they elites lack the control over the country that that the North Korean Government has.

I also think that Iran is a natural ally of the US.  The Islamic Revolution is sort of an aberration, I think we have an opportunity to shift Iran back our way.

I was with you till the last sentence.  Iran might be a natural US ally (and of course they were an ally pre '79), but the Islamic Republic is never going to be remotely pro-US without "regime change" of one sort or another.

[Admiral Yi]

What Beeb said.  We have no common enemies with Iran.  I think we tend to overstate the relative importance of educated, urban, long haired booze guzzling Iranians and their hot sisters.

[grumbler]

The world has lived with Saudi Arabia being "most definitely in the Aspiring Regional Hegemon business as both a conventional power and a proxy daddy, and that is not going to go away anytime soon," and with Russia being "most definitely in the Aspiring Regional Hegemon business as both a conventional power and a proxy daddy, and that is not going to go away anytime soon," and with China being "most definitely in the Aspiring Regional Hegemon business as both a conventional power and a proxy daddy, and that is not going to go away anytime soon," and with pakistan being "most definitely in the Aspiring Regional Hegemon business as both a conventional power and a proxy daddy, and that is not going to go away anytime soon." I can see Turkey going down that road, as well. We can live with Iran in that state as well, so long as it has something to lose by pushing that line too far and/or allowing the extremists too much influence, like the others.

I think the way you defang extremists is by giving the non-extremists a stake in an upright apple cart.  The deal has the potential to do that with Iran.  If it doesn't work, little is lost.  Israel isn't going to defang the extremists, nor is it going to do much more than inconvenience the nuclear by bombing.  Hell, the Iranian extremists probably pray daily for Israel to attack Iran.  It's funny to imagine the look on Binky's face when he gets prayers from CdM that are identical to those of Mohammad Ali Jafari.

[grumbler]

What Beeb said.  We have no common enemies with Iran. 

Saudi Arabia?

[garbon]

Who is Binky?

[Admiral Yi]

Saudi Arabia?

No.

[Barrister]

What Beeb said.  We have no common enemies with Iran. 

Saudi Arabia?

More precisely: radical Sunni extremists, often Saudi-funded.

[Admiral Yi]

Iran cares about jihadists killing Alawites in Syria.  We're indifferent. 

We care about jihadists blowing up Americans.  Iran is indifferent.

[Barrister]

Iran cares about jihadists killing Alawites in Syria.  We're indifferent. 

We care about jihadists blowing up Americans.  Iran is indifferent.

But since they're the same jihadists doing both, there is a common enemy.

Iran was surprisingly co-operative with the US in Afghanistan for precisely that reason - both wanted the taliban out of power.

[frunk]

Iran cares about jihadists killing Alawites in Syria.  We're indifferent. 

We care about jihadists blowing up Americans.  Iran is indifferent.

But since they're the same jihadists doing both, there is a common enemy.

Iran was surprisingly co-operative with the US in Afghanistan for precisely that reason - both wanted the taliban out of power.

In fact an impartial observer might be rather confused that we are enemies, considering we've attacked Afghanistan (Taliban, Iranian enemy), Iraq (Hussein, Iranian enemy) and refrained from attacking Syria (Assad, Iranian friend).