CSI Venezuela

[Queequeg]

I try to read quality sources from as far across the ideological spectrum as I can. 

[derspiess]

Well, that one was pretty far.

[Queequeg]

Meh.  It's interesting.  Given the current fucked-up nature of the entire American economy I think there's a place for actual Leftists, if American Leftists didn't have all the political genius of Russian Liberals and all the practical good sense of Maoists. 

[Admiral Yi]

It's only interesting as an exercise in spin.

[Queequeg]

Meh.  What was interesting to me was that they were coping to the complete failure of Chavismo.

[The Brain]

I thought Chavismo was a British thing?

[MadImmortalMan]

It's on youtube-- search "Venezuela 2014".  Also a couple clips have been posted here.  In one of them you hear the dude's mom yelling at him to get away from the window.

OK.  But that still doesn't change the fact that if it's not shown on CNN it's not really happening.

I think they've effectively kicked CNN out of the country.

[derspiess]

Meh.  What was interesting to me was that they were coping to the complete failure of Chavismo.

But it's the same tired "that wasn't true socialism/communism-- let's give it another shot.  It just has to work this time" line.

Hell, even our own Venezuelan Marxist* disavowed Chavez early on. 


*PS did not seem like quite as much a Marxist as he claimed to be.

[garbon]

Meh.  What was interesting to me was that they were coping to the complete failure of Chavismo.

But it's the same tired "that wasn't true socialism/communism-- let's give it another shot.  It just has to work this time" line.

Hell, even our own Venezuelan Marxist* disavowed Chavez early on. 


*PS did not seem like quite as much a Marxist as he claimed to be.

Josephus did give us some Chavez apologism in response to people "crowing" about his death.

[Barrister]

Meh.  What was interesting to me was that they were coping to the complete failure of Chavismo.

But it's the same tired "that wasn't true socialism/communism-- let's give it another shot.  It just has to work this time" line.

Hell, even our own Venezuelan Marxist* disavowed Chavez early on. 


*PS did not seem like quite as much a Marxist as he claimed to be.

Indeed.  Here was his summation:

Chavez promised popular power and the investment of the country's oil wealth in new social programs. Quite rightly, his new health and education programs were a source of great pride and a guarantee of continued support for him among the majority of Venezuelans. Today, those funds are drying up as Venezuela's oil income is diverted to paying for increasingly expensive imports.

What has emerged in Venezuela is a new bureaucratic class who are themselves the speculators and owners of this new and failing economy. Today, as the violence increases, they are to be seen delivering fierce speeches against corruption and wearing the obligatory red shirt and cap of Chavismo.

But the literally billions of dollars that have "disappeared" in recent years, and the extraordinary wealth accumulated by leading Chavistas, are the clearest signs that their interests have prevailed. At the same time, the institutions of popular power have largely withered on the vine. The promises of community control, of control from below, of a socialism that benefited the whole population, have proved to be hollow.

The Right has hoped to trade on that disillusionment. That it has not yet managed to mobilize significant numbers of working class people is testimony to their intense loyalty to the Chavista project, if not to his self-appointed successors — though they are unimpressed by those successors' overnight conversion to transparency and honesty in government.

The solution is not in unprincipled alliances with the opponents of Chavismo, nor in inviting in multinationals like Samsung to enjoy cheap Venezuelan labour in assembling their equipment. What can save the Bolivarian project, and the hope it inspired in so many, is for the speculators and bureaucrats to be removed, and for popular power to be built, from the ground up, on the basis of a genuine socialism — participatory, democratic, and exemplary in refusing to reproduce the values and methods of a capitalism which has been unmasked by the revolutionary youth of Greece, Spain and the Middle East.

He seems to not ask himself the question of why, in every single instance where socialism has been attempted, does it inevitably lead to "a new bureaucratic class who are themselves the speculators and owners of this new and failing economy".

[The Minsky Moment]

He seems to not ask himself the question of why, in every single instance where socialism has been attempted, does it inevitably lead to "a new bureaucratic class who are themselves the speculators and owners of this new and failing economy".

There are exceptions - the Cultural Revolution and the Cambodian Year Zero leap to mind.
Overall I think the "new bureaucratic class" is preferable . . .

[KRonn]

I figure this may likely go the way of Ukraine, the President forced to flee, government making huge changes and concessions. But Maduro may have enough support among the Chavez-istas to be able to remain in power,but with so much anger and dissent it gets hard to run the government, so he would need to make some serious changes. I have to think also about these kinds of dissent happening in other countries which have caused governments to resign, topple or change that it emboldens protesters who have strong feelings for change elsewhere. Ukraine being the best most current example.

[derspiess]

I figure this may likely go the way of Ukraine, the President forced to flee, government making huge changes and concessions.

I have my doubts, but that would be very nice-- preferably though without as many dead as in Ukraine.

But Maduro may have enough support among the Chavez-istas to be able to remain in power,but with so much anger and dissent it gets hard to run the government, so he would need to make some serious changes. I have to think also about these kinds of dissent happening in other countries which have caused governments to resign, topple or change that it emboldens protesters who have strong feelings for change elsewhere.

It's tough to speculate how the Venezuela situation will resolve itself.  I'm not as hopeful as I was with the Ukraine uprising, because the Maduro regime holds too many cards (i.e., too many supportive groups with guns) and I don't see signs of any of those groups switching sides.  And there are so many other structural advantages for his regime that Yanu did not seem to have.

That's not to say that Maduro has unwavering support.  One of his longtime supporters, a governor of the province where the protests started, has spoken in favor of the opposition.  Others have been oddly silent. 

Ultimately it will come down to how Maduro is able to hold things together.  Chavez knew when to heat things up with the opposition and when to back off-- in fact he was a genius at it.  Maduro appeals for peace and dialogue, but only after branding all his opponents "fascists" that must be crushed by his "iron fist"-- he possesses none of the Chavez finesse.

A couple days ago my gut feeling was that the protests were about to lose momentum, but people are hungry & can't get a hold of basic necessities.  That, plus crime, inflation, and being shot at tends to keep them pissed off. 

And the sad fact is that Venezuela has become very difficult to govern (even for the current regime-- look at the obscene murder rate)-- it's such a mess that it may already be a failed state.  I could easily see a bloody civil war taking place in the near future. 

Ukraine being the best most current example.

Now comes the tricky part for the Ukraine opposition.  They hold the power now and need to make some difficult decisions.  But I'm sure the Venezuelan opposition would welcome that burden

[jimmy olsen]

Marx was a little off on Latin America.
When history repeats itself there, it is first as farce, then as really bad farce.  After that point it goes downhill.

Yep.  It is pretty absurd how predictable it all is.  I mean was there anybody who knew anything about Latin American history not predicting this is exactly how this would turn out?

Brazil has been relatively okay for the last decade. If that continues, then maybe it's influence help stabilize the rest of the continent.

[Eddie Teach]

Brazil has been relatively okay for the last decade. If that continues, then maybe it's influence help stabilize the rest of the continent.

The US has been pretty stable for the last century and a half, hasn't helped Mexico much.