Japan finds decade, realizes it was never lost

[Jacob]

So yeah... apparently the "lost decade" was never really lost: http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2013/08/11/now-for-the-truth-the-story-of-japans-lost-decades-is-the-worlds-most-absurd-media-myth/

A quote from the article:

Under the headline "Japanese Optical Illusion: The 'Lost Decades' Theory Is A Myth," Cline records that whereas the U.S. labor force increased by 23 percent between 1991 and 2012, Japan's labor force increased by a mere 0.6 percent. Thus, adjusted to a per-worker basis, Japan's output rose respectably. Indeed Japan's growth was considerably faster than that of  Germany, which is the current poster child of economic success.

[Viking]

3650 days of tentacle porn? How can that possibly be a loss?

[Josquius]

Will read it now but from the summary I would reply - Except a key reason for the low birth rate was decreased salaries, financial instability, etc....

Reading  it-hmm, some good points but  some iffy ones.
It is certainly true that Japan has  an image it likes  to put across and does very good at this. That it could put across a negative economic image....yes. that  I would believe.
The debt point is also good and more people should realise that.
But it all reeks  too much of economics. On the ground in Japan, with real people, the effects can still be somewhat seen. Japan for the last 2 decades has somewhat been where the UK is now- little room for young people to get  a start on life.  Infrastructure behind the main points has been decaying quite horribly.... there's a cool blog called spike Japan which takes a pretty great look at the ground level side of Japan's decline.

[Admiral Yi]

The author misses several key points.  Japanese are phenomenal savers, and put their money in negative real interest rate postal savings accounts that get recycled into public debt *not* because they have made a sober, rational assessment of the risks of sovereign default but because they are not very bright. 

The lost decade is not about worker productivity, it's about the end of lifetime employment and rising wages.  Japanese industrial workers have always been among the most productive workers in the world, but white collar workers have been among the least.  Not hard to boost overall productivity when you have so much slack in the system.

I've read a couple articles about the plight of Japanese tweeters.  It used to mean slacker, but now it's used to refer to the huge numbers of 20-40 year olds that never managed to land a coveted lifetime employment gig and suffer through life working poorly paid contract jobs, barely able to afford a Big Mac at the end of the week.

[Admiral Yi]

Should be freeters, not tweeters.

I knew that didn't sound right.

[The Minsky Moment]

So yeah... apparently the "lost decade" was never really lost: http://www.forbes.com/sites/eamonnfingleton/2013/08/11/now-for-the-truth-the-story-of-japans-lost-decades-is-the-worlds-most-absurd-media-myth/

A quote from the article:

Under the headline "Japanese Optical Illusion: The 'Lost Decades' Theory Is A Myth," Cline records that whereas the U.S. labor force increased by 23 percent between 1991 and 2012, Japan's labor force increased by a mere 0.6 percent. Thus, adjusted to a per-worker basis, Japan's output rose respectably. Indeed Japan's growth was considerably faster than that of  Germany, which is the current poster child of economic success.

1991-2012 is not a decade.
The lost decade was 1991-2000. The Japanese economy did improve relatively after that point.
In the 1991-2000, growth in output per worker in Japan was considerably weaker than in the US. 
I don't think any economist or indeed any sensible person would point out Germany as a good story for strong post 1989 growth either.

[Jacob]

Thanks. It's (almost) always good to get the languish counter points 

[Zanza]

As mentioned before, Germany was the sick man of Europe up to about 2005. The brief phase of economic success afterwards only lasted until about 2012, with the terrible year 2009 in between. Right now, Germany is no longer a poster child but doing so-so, which is admittedly better than most of the rest of Europe.

[Neil]

3650 days of tentacle porn? How can that possibly be a loss?

Forgetting the leap days?  How unscientific.

[Richard Hakluyt]

As mentioned before, Germany was the sick man of Europe up to about 2005. The brief phase of economic success afterwards only lasted until about 2012, with the terrible year 2009 in between. Right now, Germany is no longer a poster child but doing so-so, which is admittedly better than most of the rest of Europe.

There has been a strong vein of Germany worship in recent left-wing commentary here in the UK. It is bloody irritating because if a British Government implemented the same sort of policies to improve our economy the squeals would be deafening.

Which is not to defend our current government of course, I have no idea who I can vote for in 2015 

[Ed Anger]

As mentioned before, Germany was the sick man of Europe up to about 2005. The brief phase of economic success afterwards only lasted until about 2012, with the terrible year 2009 in between. Right now, Germany is no longer a poster child but doing so-so, which is admittedly better than most of the rest of Europe.

There has been a strong vein of Germany worship in recent left-wing commentary here in the UK. It is bloody irritating because if a British Government implemented the same sort of policies to improve our economy the squeals would be deafening.

Which is not to defend our current government of course, I have no idea who I can vote for in 2015 

Vote UKIP. The comedy factor alone would be worth it.

[MadImmortalMan]

there's a cool blog called spike Japan which takes a pretty great look at the ground level side of Japan's decline.

Fascinating site.

It's the contrast between public-sector affluence and private-sector squalor, precisely the opposite of what prevails in the West, that's so mesmerizing.

[The Minsky Moment]

1992 GDP: 483 trillion
2012 GDP: 476 trillion

GDP figures are nominal.

1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million

This looks pretty damn lost to me.  Japan has more people than they did 20 years ago, but less GDP.  Any economic improvement they may have enjoyed in the past 20 years has been in the form of price decreases.

[jimmy olsen]

Yeah, there's a lot more run down older buildings in Japan. Everything in Korea looks shinny and new in comparison.

[DGuller]

1992 GDP: 483 trillion
2012 GDP: 476 trillion

GDP figures are nominal.

1992 pop: 124 million
2012 pop: 127 million

This looks pretty damn lost to me.  Japan has more people than they did 20 years ago, but less GDP.  Any economic improvement they may have enjoyed in the past 20 years has been in the form of price decreases.

Are things ever going to be good enough for the population to just kick back and relax, and not procreate too much? 

I see all too often people citing growth, but not often are people citing how much we already grew to.  Obviously there is a difference between steady state economies and growth economies, and a growth economy that stops growing is going to cause painful dislocations, but I am wondering were we're going with all that economic growth.  What's the end game, a new iPad every week?