Japan finds decade, realizes it was never lost

Started by Jacob, August 12, 2013, 11:25:26 AM

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The Minsky Moment

The BOJ never used QE during the entire lost decade.  In fact, it was the decision of BOJ to attempt QE that effectively brought the lost decade to a close.  The problem was that the program was not sustained to the point where deflation was eliminated, and by 06-07, BOJ was preversely reducing the monetary base.

As for fiscal policy, the number of separate packages illustrates the problem.  If you look year-to-year Japan was alternating periods of fiscal stimulus with occasional fiscal contractions, sometimes quite sharp.  In addition, the effectiveness of fiscal policy was vitiating by the zombie financing in the corporate sector.  Had Japan did what the US did after the S&L crisis, and resolved insolvent banks and firms, then fiscal policy might have played a role in jump-starting a recovery. 
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Sheilbh

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 13, 2013, 06:41:52 AM
There has been a strong vein of Germany worship in recent left-wing commentary here in the UK. It is bloody irritating because if a British Government implemented the same sort of policies to improve our economy the squeals would be deafening.
Not just on the left. The government's obsessed with 'rebalancing' our economy towards exports - or, more accurately, they talk about it a lot. It's one of those areas were Ed Miliband made a semi-interesting point, then dropped it.

Personally I think it's a fad. It's worth remembering that not only was Germany the sick man of Europe but that the proposed solution was to become more Anglo-Saxon. More flexibility of hiring and firing, more focus on the service sector, lots of deregulation - which wasn't actually the German path. Sadly that was the model Ireland and Cyprus followed, within the Euro.

So currently everyone's saying we need to become more German. We need to develop an industrial policy, start training our workforce and so on. I doubt we will, much like the Germans didn't adopt the Economist's routine list of Anglo-Saxon prescriptions. And when the German economy next hits a tough patch we'll start lecturing them again.

QuoteWhich is not to defend our current government of course, I have no idea who I can vote for in 2015  :(
You've got an interesting sounding MP:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Hendrick

I have Harriet Harman....:mellow:
Let's bomb Russia!

Josquius

But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....
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Richard Hakluyt

Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....

Depends on your timescale, if we take a lifespan of 80 years as our measure then Germany utterly sucks compared to the UK.

Neil

Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....
Maybe, maybe not.  After all, despite your whining and sniveling about how the government didn't transfer money out of London into Coalistan, but eastern Germany has been a shithole for the last 70 years.
I do not hate you, nor do I love you, but you are made out of atoms which I can use for something else.

Zanza

Quote from: Neil on August 25, 2013, 01:38:21 PM
Maybe, maybe not.  After all, despite your whining and sniveling about how the government didn't transfer money out of London into Coalistan, but eastern Germany has been a shithole for the last 70 years.
Maybe, but it is richer than regions of Northern England, which may be what Tyr compares it to.

Zanza

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 25, 2013, 01:23:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....

Depends on your timescale, if we take a lifespan of 80 years as our measure then Germany utterly sucks compared to the UK.
We won three world cups though.

Eddie Teach

I was going to make a smart alecky response, but it turns out England has only 2 between rugby, cricket and soccer. Why don't they invent games that they'd be good at?  :hmm:
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Peter Wiggin on August 25, 2013, 02:49:12 PM
I was going to make a smart alecky response, but it turns out England has only 2 between rugby, cricket and soccer. Why don't they invent games that they'd be good at?  :hmm:

From what I've seen they throw some fierce darts.

Josquius

#54
Quoteaybe, maybe not.  After all, despite your whining and sniveling about how the government didn't transfer money out of London into Coalistan, but eastern Germany has been a shithole for the last 70 years.
The western 2/3 is richer than the eastern 1/3 is a lot more equal than the south eastern 1/20 getting much more than the rest.
Plus even east Germans get decent education rights.

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 25, 2013, 01:23:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....

Depends on your timescale, if we take a lifespan of 80 years as our measure then Germany utterly sucks compared to the UK.

:lol:
True.
I'm thinking of life in the modern day, if picking where to be born in the 1930s, or practically any time up till the 80s really due to the risk of being born in the east, then hell yes I'm going to go with Britain
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Ideologue

Kinemalogue
Current reviews: The 'Burbs (9/10); Gremlins 2: The New Batch (9/10); John Wick: Chapter 2 (9/10); A Cure For Wellness (4/10)

Richard Hakluyt

Quote from: Zanza on August 25, 2013, 02:44:13 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on August 25, 2013, 01:23:31 PM
Quote from: Tyr on August 25, 2013, 12:20:58 PM
But through it all Germany is the better place for an average citizen so....

Depends on your timescale, if we take a lifespan of 80 years as our measure then Germany utterly sucks compared to the UK.
We won three world cups though.

:D

That supports my point though, if emulating Germany is such a simple matter we can start by having a decent national football team and win a few world cups. Then we can set about transforming Sunderland into Neue Stuttgart  :cool:

Zanza

Germany still has coal-mining (lignite):

I think we even have two or three coal mines active, but those will shut down by 2018.

The Brain

If only there was a better and safer way to generate power. :(
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Zanza

Quote from: The Brain on August 26, 2013, 11:11:16 AM
If only there was a better and safer way to generate power. :(
Gas, hydro, wind, solar - all better and safer.  :P