Spitzer and Weiner Lead in New Poll Because Scandal Brought Name Recognition

[The Minsky Moment]

The only thing required for it to work is that the NPV of future tax revenues under the BD regime is greater than that under a BD-free regime.

That is so if and only if the sole determinant of success is maximizing the tax haul.  A questionable sole criterion.
As a matter of fact I also think it unlikely to satisfied in many cases.

[garbon]

New York mag devoted all of next week's issue to articles on Bloomberg and what New York is like now compared to before him.  I haven't read much of it yet but one thing that stood out is that homeless population has gone from 30k to 50k.

Cover is a pic of Bloomberg close up so you only see part of his suit coat and up to about his nose with the words "His Town."

[Savonarola]

Ugh, I didn't know that de Blasio's campaign slogan was Tale of Two Cities. Time to get excited about Lhota.

You would think Jacobins would not use that as a slogan.

[garbon]

From NYT:

Lhota Hopes to Capitalize on Elite Dismay Over a Liberal Tilt

They are startled and unsure how to react. "Terrifying," is how one banker put it.

Many in New York's business and financial elite, stung by the abrupt ascent of Bill de Blasio, an unapologetic tax-the-rich liberal, are fixated on a single question: What are we going to do?

The angst, emanating from charity galas and Park Avenue dinner tables, has created an unexpected political opening for Joseph J. Lhota, the Republican nominee, whose once-sleepy candidacy is now viewed by players in both parties as their last, best hope for salvaging the business-friendly government of the Bloomberg era.

Even before his victory speech on Tuesday night, Mr. Lhota was moving quickly to exploit his newfound role. He planned to speak on primary night with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, whose blessing could confer credibility with the Manhattan establishment.

His fund-raisers are wooing real estate and business moguls turned off by the leftist tenor of the Democratic primary campaign, and some Democratic officials have already quietly approached him to offer help.

"I've heard from people who would usually be inclined to support the Democratic candidate," said an upbeat James S. Tisch, the chief executive of the Loews Corporation and a finance chairman of Mr. Lhota's campaign, as he greeted well-wishers at a breakfast fund-raiser that attracted 200 guests — both Democrats and Republicans — on Monday.

Even if Democrats hold a runoff election, Mr. de Blasio's commanding finish in the primary Tuesday night means that his liberal message could well dominate that intraparty contest, leaving Mr. Lhota likely to face a left-leaning opponent in November.

Mr. Lhota knows he has to make a convincing case: he has struggled to connect on the campaign trail, where his semi-ironic humor does not always translate, and he occasionally needs to be reminded to talk to people at parades.

But he brings an easy charm and a commanding knowledge of municipal government, having served as a chief lieutenant to Rudolph W. Giuliani and overseen the region's sprawling transportation network.

Fund-raising is an immediate priority, after a lackluster effort in the primary. But Mr. Lhota believes a matchup with a left-leaning Democrat will provide him with the starkest possible contrast between his brand of no-nonsense, Bloomberg-style management and a liberal who can be depicted as more focused on ideology than competence.

"Over the next two months, New Yorkers will see two completely different visions for the future of our city," Mr. Lhota told cheering supporters on Tuesday evening, before launching into a searing criticism of Mr. de Blasio's "tale of two cities" mantra.

"This tale is nothing more than class warfare," Mr. Lhota said. "It's this kind of thinking that brought our city to the brink of bankruptcy and rampant civic decay."

In the days ahead, Mr. Lhota will seek to exploit weaknesses that he believes were rarely revealed during the Democratic contest, when the like-minded candidates often differed on tactics rather than substance. He plans to cast his opponent as a naïve ideologue who would send the city back to the ruinous days of the last Democratic administration, that of David N. Dinkins, where Mr. de Blasio got his start in government. And Mr. Lhota will emphasize his support of the stop-and-frisk police tactic.

But as Mr. Lhota seeks to secure support, Mr. de Blasio, aware that his rhetoric has unsettled powerful people, has quietly been in touch with several establishment figures recently, including Rob Speyer, the chairman of the Real Estate Board of New York, and the financier Steven Rattner. Both men have close ties to Mr. Bloomberg, and supported the campaign of Christine C. Quinn in the Democratic primary.

In some of these conversations, Mr. de Blasio has played down his unabashedly liberal positions, pointing out that no public-sector union has endorsed him, and saying that he would represent the wealthy as well as the 99 percent if elected mayor, according to people familiar with the discussions.

But the outreach by Mr. de Blasio has not kept Mr. Lhota's team from receiving a deluge of calls in recent weeks.

Disaffected Democrats have reached out, Mr. Tisch said, expressing concerns that Mr. de Blasio would be a "destructive" figure in a city accustomed to a business-friendly mayor.

"My phone has been ringing," said Mr. Tisch, a Democrat who has backed such party stalwarts as Senators Charles E. Schumer and Kirsten E. Gillibrand.

Still, he noted, Mr. Lhota has work to do.

"The first question they ask is, 'Can Lhota win?' " Mr. Tisch said. "When they hear 'yes,' then they're interested."

More in link.

[DGuller]

My heart breaks for the concerned fat cats.     This is making me very conflicted:  on one side you have lemon socialists, on the other side you have regular socialists.

[garbon]

Which side needs actuaries?

[DGuller]

Which side needs actuaries?

Real socialists do need someone to sign off on a 20.75% assumed annual growth rate for the public pension funds.    

[garbon]

Ah because you love to lie?

[Razgovory]

Ah because you love to lie?

Only in his off time.  He's not in Market Research after all.

[The Minsky Moment]

From NYT:

Lhota Hopes to Capitalize on Elite Dismay Over a Liberal Tilt

They are startled and unsure how to react. "Terrifying," is how one banker put it.

Really, a 0.5% tax increase is cause for terror?  I thought terror was like suicide bombs or the Comite de Salut Public or the Cheka.
The over-the-top hysteria is revealing of the degree to which certain people have become so out of touch with reality.

[DGuller]

Really, a 0.5% tax increase is cause for terror?  I thought terror was like suicide bombs or the Comite de Salut Public or the Cheka.
The over-the-top hysteria is revealing of the degree to which certain people have become so out of touch with reality.

On top of the taxes already in place?  Definitely a sign of destructive policies to come. 

[Admiral Yi]

What is the current top rate on the city income tax?

[The Minsky Moment]

The highest income bracket starts at 500K.  The tax proposal is to go from 3.876 percent to 4.41 percent.
Keep in mind that real estate taxes in NYC are significantly lower than for the surrounding areas, because of the income tax.  So a $5 million townhouse in NYC carries an annual tax bill in the 8000-10,000 range, whereas a 1.5 million house in Westchester or Long Island may carry a $30,000 tax bill.  That is a very significant benefit for wealthy people that own property in the City.

[Admiral Yi]

I agree that terrifying does not objectively describe an increase of that magnitude.

What i think is cause for concern however, is the thought that there is nothing protecting the sheep against the two wolves who are voting on what to have for lunch.

[garbon]

What i think is cause for concern however, is the thought that there is nothing protecting the sheep against the two wolves who are voting on what to have for lunch.

Yep and I think that's really what people are reacting too and not simply the .5% tax hike as Joan puts it.