2016 elections - because it's never too early

[frunk]

I have a pretty simple metric on how I evaluate the relative merits of these groups.

I think "What would the Israelis do if they had complete control of a group of Arabs?" That is an easy question to answer, because they do in fact have direct control of such a group. While there are certainly questionable actions, by and large the Israelis go to radical lengths to avoid harming them more than is necessary, and expend huge amounts of effort to avoid collateral damage. They could probably do more, but by an large the gap between their capability for atrocity and what actually happens is *generally* as large as one would demand from a Western nation under the circumstances they find themselves.

Then I think "What would Hamas or Hezbollah do if they controlled Israel and the Jews who lived their?" That is somewhat harder to answer, since they do not, but we can simply ask them what they would do, and their stated answer is very clear. And further, their actions to the extent that they can in fact express their desires through the power they do have is also clear - they would eradicate them. They state that as their goal, they avow it as what they want, they preach it daily to their followers, and when they have any kind of power, it is expressed in exactly the manner one would expect from their stated goals and intentions. They go out of their way to kill as many Jews as they can, and not only do they make no effort to avoid civilian targets, they go to the other extreme and actually avoid military targets in favor of civilian.

Further, if one looks at how each side treats their own people, it is even more alarming. To the great extent that the Israelis attempt to avoid Arab/Muslim civilians casualties, they obviously expend vast effort to protect their own civlians, including Arabs and Muslims that live in Israel.

Conversely, Hezbollah and Hamas and such not only make no effort to protect their own civilians, they in fact use their own civilians routinely to protect their own fighters. As a matter of course, you can see examples where their fighters use civilians as shields from Israeli military action. The only reason that can actually work is BECAUSE Israeli is hesitant to incur that collateral damage. Could anyone imagine the ridiculousness of an IDF member using an Israeli civilians as a human shield while they shoot at some Hamas "soldiers"?

I find it kind of amazing that people can engage in the cognitive dissonance necessary to decide that the side that actually cares more about their enemies civilians than their enemy cares about their own civilians is the moral "bad guy" in the conflict.

I mostly agree with this, although I think the current government of Israel and its policy of continued settlement of the West Bank weakens the argument.  They are deliberately provoking the situation and making it a worse and more violent situation for both Israelis and Palestinians.  If they continue doing this I'm not sure how it can end in anything other than wholesale removal of Palestinians from the West Bank or mass killings.

[derspiess]

I know there's not much to go on yet, but news coverage sucks so far today.  I was tuned to Fox News for about three minutes before they cut to Hulk Hogan trial coverage.  Then MSNBC for a short while before Andrea Mitchell in HD scared the poop out of me. 

Btw I just learned that MSNBC shitcanned Melitha Harrith Perry.  Wonder what took so long.

[CountDeMoney]

Apparently urban sass and attitude only works for Oprah. 

[Capetan Mihali]

Apparently urban sass and attitude only works for Oprah.

What it'd take her to develop that, 25 years?  Definitely after Montel went down circa 2006.

[Malthus]

Hey, that psycho Malthus took it off track, not me.  I was talking pure US presidential politics.

Huh? I was just challenging your assertion that all US presidents following Eisenhower have been in thrall to the Zionist lobby - by pointing out it wasn't, in fact, historically accurate. Which it isn't.

Why that should lead to a multi-page diatribe about Israel, not to mention you making personal attacks on me, I have no idea. I suggested taking that to a different thread, presumably after you had some sleep. 

[CountDeMoney]

As I recall, Poppy Bush caught a ration of shit for withholding the processing of loan guarantees as to make a point over West Bank settlement construction.

Oh, and the fact he managed to talk them down from DEFCON: Costanza over the Iraqi SCUD attacks and stay their hand was nothing short of miraculous.

[derspiess]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/273012-clinton-we-didnt-lose-a-single-person-in-libya

[CountDeMoney]

Melitha Harrith Perry.

I saw what you did there. Rathith.

[Valmy]

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/273012-clinton-we-didnt-lose-a-single-person-in-libya

She was obviously talking about the intervention.

[Berkut]

I have a pretty simple metric on how I evaluate the relative merits of these groups.

I think "What would the Israelis do if they had complete control of a group of Arabs?" That is an easy question to answer, because they do in fact have direct control of such a group. While there are certainly questionable actions, by and large the Israelis go to radical lengths to avoid harming them more than is necessary, and expend huge amounts of effort to avoid collateral damage. They could probably do more, but by an large the gap between their capability for atrocity and what actually happens is *generally* as large as one would demand from a Western nation under the circumstances they find themselves.

Then I think "What would Hamas or Hezbollah do if they controlled Israel and the Jews who lived their?" That is somewhat harder to answer, since they do not, but we can simply ask them what they would do, and their stated answer is very clear. And further, their actions to the extent that they can in fact express their desires through the power they do have is also clear - they would eradicate them. They state that as their goal, they avow it as what they want, they preach it daily to their followers, and when they have any kind of power, it is expressed in exactly the manner one would expect from their stated goals and intentions. They go out of their way to kill as many Jews as they can, and not only do they make no effort to avoid civilian targets, they go to the other extreme and actually avoid military targets in favor of civilian.

Further, if one looks at how each side treats their own people, it is even more alarming. To the great extent that the Israelis attempt to avoid Arab/Muslim civilians casualties, they obviously expend vast effort to protect their own civlians, including Arabs and Muslims that live in Israel.

Conversely, Hezbollah and Hamas and such not only make no effort to protect their own civilians, they in fact use their own civilians routinely to protect their own fighters. As a matter of course, you can see examples where their fighters use civilians as shields from Israeli military action. The only reason that can actually work is BECAUSE Israeli is hesitant to incur that collateral damage. Could anyone imagine the ridiculousness of an IDF member using an Israeli civilians as a human shield while they shoot at some Hamas "soldiers"?

I find it kind of amazing that people can engage in the cognitive dissonance necessary to decide that the side that actually cares more about their enemies civilians than their enemy cares about their own civilians is the moral "bad guy" in the conflict.

I mostly agree with this, although I think the current government of Israel and its policy of continued settlement of the West Bank weakens the argument.  They are deliberately provoking the situation and making it a worse and more violent situation for both Israelis and Palestinians.  If they continue doing this I'm not sure how it can end in anything other than wholesale removal of Palestinians from the West Bank or mass killings.

I agree completely. While the overall calculus is pretty trivial to evaluate, that doesn't excuse Israel from particular criticism about particular policies.

But even then, one has to understand the context that those policy decisions are made in - I think the "settlement" policies are terrible, but on the other hand...I totally understand why the political situation within Israel is such that they are going forward with them anyway. This is overly simplistic I am sure, but when you have a situation where reason and moderation consistently fail, the extremists inevitably come to power. The examples of this are everywhere, and it is why I despair at people who savage the moderates because they lack the "purity" if their (usually) partisan positions. It simply leads to the further polarization and demonization of the groups.

We see this in the extreme of the rampant violence in the Middle East, and we see it in the less violent but no less radical polarization of the political parties in the US.

[Razgovory]

You think you know a guy, and then he starts defending Trump's hooligans and going on about the Jews.

[Valmy]

This is overly simplistic I am sure, but when you have a situation where reason and moderation consistently fail, the extremists inevitably come to power.

I think this is basically how it has gone. It does not take many extremists to defeat moderation efforts. That is what makes the situation so intractable.

[Capetan Mihali]

My last* comment:  I've always known plenty of American Jews, 99/100 good Zionists, and I've known a good number of Israelis over here in the US; but I've only recently been meeting some Palestinians, from kids who grew up taking for granted the humiliation of the checkpoints to older ladies who remember the naqba and the childhood homes and the lemon trees that became Jewish Israeli property in 1948, and it has made me a little more passionate on the issue. 

It was really the 2008 Gaza attacks that fundamentally changed my perspective, since I was listening to NPR all day at work in disbelief at what I was hearing, but I suggest you all go take a look at what your money's paying for in Greater Israel (Gaza, "Judea and Samaria," the Golan) and what the effect your money's having on real people.

*Maybe.

EDIT:  Got around that last post thing with an edit.   I will say this also:  I know there is a silent majority of Languishites out there, especially among the Euros, who agree with me but who are rightfully afraid of being dogpiled for your antisemitism.

[garbon]

I pretty much stand behind what Berk has said on this issue.

[Valmy]

EDIT:  Got around that last post thing with an edit.   I will say this also:  I know there is a silent majority of Languishites out there, especially among the Euros, who agree with me but who are rightfully afraid of being dogpiled for your antisemitism.

Don't go full Siege on us. Next you will be saying how the ones who know the truth about the Climate Conspiracy are being arrested by Obama.