[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Neil]

The shit is going to hit the fan in Alberta next year, and they are well positioned to capitalize on it.

I have been hearing Wild Rose types say that for that last few years.

Yeah, but this time there's a crash in oil prices that is going to crater provincial revenues and put some people out of work, as well as possibly affecting the housing market.  And the damage is going to be worst in southern Alberta, which is more sympathetic to the Wildrose than the more level-headed central and northern areas.  Still, I doubt that the Wildrose can form a government, since they'll never win Edmonton and they'll have a very difficult time in Calgary.

[Barrister]

The shit is going to hit the fan in Alberta next year, and they are well positioned to capitalize on it.

I have been hearing Wild Rose types say that for that last few years.

And now it's happening.  With the price of oil where it is the government apparently will lose something like seven billion dollars in revenue.  This is in a province whose total debt is $12 billion dollars.We can't just borrow that kind of money and just hope that $100 oil comes back.  The price will come back, but who knows when?

Plus of course the overall effects on the economy.  Oil companies are slashing their drilling plans for next year.  People won't be working.  Less money to spend.  Housing prices seem set to fall (they're already falling in Fort Mac).

It's not as if the province is going to disappear, but it is going to be ugly.

[crazy canuck]

BB, you are old enough to know about the boom bust cycle of Alberta's economy.  20 years from now we will be having the exact same discussion.

[Barrister]

BB, you are old enough to know about the boom bust cycle of Alberta's economy.  20 years from now we will be having the exact same discussion.

Of course.

The problem is the government finances assume we'll perpetually be in boom times.  The savings fund is exhausted, and nobody ever paid it back.

You also forget that as a government employee, I am more than a little worried about what continued low oil prices will mean to my job.  I'm not unionized, so they could always fire me tomorrow if they wanted to.

Yes, in 5-10 years we'll be back to boom times, but that doesn't make the current bust any less painful to live through.

[crazy canuck]

A couple points that might set your mind at ease BB.

When it comes to downsizing it is cheaper to terminate a unionized employee  - they just have to do so in preference to seniority.

The Province will always need prosecutors.  But in the event the Province needs less, because you are non unionized you will not necessarily be the first to go even though you may have the least seniority.

The people I am most concerned about are the folks that picked up stakes recently to move to Alberta take jobs related to the oil patch.

[Barrister]

A couple points that might set your mind at ease BB.

When it comes to downsizing it is cheaper to terminate a unionized employee  - they just have to do so in preference to seniority.

The Province will always need prosecutors.  But in the event the Province needs less, because you are non unionized you will not necessarily be the first to go even though you may have the least seniority.

The people I am most concerned about are the folks that picked up stakes recently to move to Alberta take jobs related to the oil patch.

Seniority might be preferable though - I now have 6 years in (they count my prior service).

Trying to think back to the cutbacks of the 80s and 90s, I don't think they so much did mass layoffs.  Instead it was hiring freezes and wage rollbacks.  I don't really want to have a forced 10% wage cut (or whatever).

And of course, the person I'm most concerned about is me.

[dps]

A couple points that might set your mind at ease BB.

When it comes to downsizing it is cheaper to terminate a unionized employee  - they just have to do so in preference to seniority.

The Province will always need prosecutors.  But in the event the Province needs less, because you are non unionized you will not necessarily be the first to go even though you may have the least seniority.

The people I am most concerned about are the folks that picked up stakes recently to move to Alberta take jobs related to the oil patch.

Seniority might be preferable though - I now have 6 years in (they count my prior service).

Trying to think back to the cutbacks of the 80s and 90s, I don't think they so much did mass layoffs.  Instead it was hiring freezes and wage rollbacks.  I don't really want to have a forced 10% wage cut (or whatever).

And of course, the person I'm most concerned about is me.

Then look on the bright side.  If poverty really does cause crime, then a lot of people losing their jobs will lead to more crime, so the providence will need more prosecutors, not fewer.

[Josephus]

Have they ever laid off prosecutors? I could see hiring freezes/ wage increase freezes. But lay offs? Really?

[Barrister]

Have they ever laid off prosecutors? I could see hiring freezes/ wage increase freezes. But lay offs? Really?

As part of a 5 or 10 per cent across the board cut in personnel?  Why not?

[crazy canuck]

Have they ever laid off prosecutors? I could see hiring freezes/ wage increase freezes. But lay offs? Really?

As part of a 5 or 10 per cent across the board cut in personnel?  Why not?

Because not everyone thinks like a Reformer - even in Alberta 

But joking aside BB, this is a stressful time in Alberta and for you but I think you are over reacting a bit.  a lot of cost savings can be had with bringing public sector wages back in line with what they are in the rest of Canada.  The premiums the Province was paying in certain sectors (I know particular examples are in health care and education) was very generous compared to the rest of the country. 

Alberta had to pay those premiums to attract workers in a booming economy.  Now I suspect wage rates in both the private and public sectors will come back down to earth.  The main job cuts will come in jobs where the work is no longer needed - the oil patch and all those who serviced it in one way or another.  The risk I see for prosecutors is with less workers in the patch there will be less crime - but, sadly, the coming economic crunch will probably provide the prosecutorial service with more than enough off setting cases.

[Barrister]

Have they ever laid off prosecutors? I could see hiring freezes/ wage increase freezes. But lay offs? Really?

As part of a 5 or 10 per cent across the board cut in personnel?  Why not?

Because not everyone thinks like a Reformer - even in Alberta 

But joking aside BB, this is a stressful time in Alberta and for you but I think you are over reacting a bit.  a lot of cost savings can be had with bringing public sector wages back in line with what they are in the rest of Canada.  The premiums the Province was paying in certain sectors (I know particular examples are in health care and education) was very generous compared to the rest of the country. 

Alberta had to pay those premiums to attract workers in a booming economy.  Now I suspect wage rates in both the private and public sectors will come back down to earth.  The main job cuts will come in jobs where the work is no longer needed - the oil patch and all those who serviced it in one way or another.  The risk I see for prosecutors is with less workers in the patch there will be less crime - but, sadly, the coming economic crunch will probably provide the prosecutorial service with more than enough off setting cases.

But since those wages are collectively bargained they aren't easily reduced.  And in particular it's politically impossible for a government to go "you know - we're going to cut nurses salaries by 15%, but not going to touch other areas".

If the government is going to cross public sector unions (which is unclear they will - Redford certainly wouldn't) the most politically saleable message is across the board cuts.

Besides, if I was being honest, Alberta government lawyer's salaries are higher than most other jurisdictions.

[Monoriu]

The way HK did it was to pass a law on civil service salary cuts.  No need to worry about contracts, judicial reviews, unions etc.

[Grey Fox]

This is in a province whose total debt is $12 billion dollars.We can't just borrow that kind of money and just hope that $100 oil comes back.  The price will come back, but who knows when?

That's funny. Of course you can. For about 15 years.

[Josephus]

I'm saving $30-$40 a week on my weekly commute.

[Jacob]

Seems like quite a number of politically related trials this year: Mike Duffy and Patrick Brazeau of the Senate not to mention Mac Harb; Manon Perrault of the House of Commons; Bruce Carson formerly of the PMO; and of course Michael Sona's appeal (both his and the Crown's) as well as Dean and David Del Mastro. And Pamela Wallin is still being investigated.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mike-duffy-dean-del-mastro-and-other-political-figures-go-to-court-in-2015-1.2874878