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Israel-Hamas War 2023

Started by Zanza, October 07, 2023, 04:56:14 AM

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viper37

I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

crazy canuck

Quote from: viper37 on October 16, 2024, 12:16:17 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 16, 2024, 07:35:35 AM
Quote from: viper37 on October 15, 2024, 09:22:49 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 15, 2024, 11:59:57 AM
Quote from: viper37 on October 15, 2024, 08:47:39 AMU.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon pledge not to give in to Israeli demands to 'get out of harm's way'

Who's left to attack in the area?  Civilians, check.  Humanitarians, check.  UN Peackeepers, check.  Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Yemen, check.  At least, they haven't targeted the US this time around.

The Peacekeepers are just creating safe zones for Hezbollah. They have never once tried to enforce the UN Resolution that justifies their presence (which was actually to keep Hezbollah out of the southern border region of the country), they need removed.
I knew you'd say that.

Israel never fully retired from Lebanon either (and as usual, Israel does not really recognize the border and regularly operates in Lebanon, it's just a matter of time before parts of it are also annexed and the people are deported elsewhere) and the UN Peacekeepers are not equipped for heavy fighting.

The resolution called for Israel withdrawal and a gradual take over by the Lebanese army and the peacekeeper.  However, neither of these group are equipped to fight against the IDF and push them back while also fighting the Hezbollah.

10 000 soldiers and sailors, including the doctors, administrators and other support staff, all lightly armed, except for a few tanks and light vehicles against 100 000 armed to the teeth Hezbollah fighters and IDF soldiers ready to shoot them in the back as soon as Hezbollah is weakened.

Great deal you got there.  You must be a genius of military strategy.  I'm sure Donald Trump will name you Sec Def.

The issue is that Hezbollah did not vacate the area, which was another key goal of the UN resolution, and in fact increased its use of the area to attack Israel. 

So it's not clear what purpose the UN observers actually served.
Their presence was a mere 2000 soldiers in 2006.  It increased briefly to 15 000 for a few years than got reduced back to 15 000.  It includes a couple of warships to help prevent smuggling, in assistance to the Lebanase navy, administrative staff, support staff.  As of this conflict they are around 10 000.  No artillery, no aviation, no heavy tanks.  The Hezbollah is well entranched, so was the IDF in the villages it controlled.

Their mandates does not allow them to attack anyone, only to defend.  They can't force the Hezbollah out of their lair, nor can't they push back Israel.  Even if the mandate had been changed, with the number of troops they have, as soon as they would attack Hezbollah, the IDF would use the vacuum and launch its own attack as it's doing now and has been doing in the past.  They'd get slaughtered if they tried to resist.

Peacekeepers can only enforce a cease-fire, they're not equipped to wage a war on two fronts.




All of which is entirely correct, and is also entirely consistent with wondering why they are still there.  As you correctly point out, they cannot carry out their mandate of observing whether a UN resolution is being observed, when neither side (and arguably especially the Lebanese side) never did, or could, comply with the resolution.

Razgovory

Quote from: viper37 on October 16, 2024, 12:08:47 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on October 15, 2024, 11:40:32 PMWait, you think the UNIFIL is there to fight the Israelis?
What do UN Peacekeepers do, usually?  Fight for one side?

Usually?  Not much.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Razgovory

Standing around letting one side shoot at the other is not enforcing a cease fire.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Admiral Yi

When the IDF invaded Lebanon the first time Gurkha peacekeepers laid down in from of Israeli tanks.

crazy canuck

Quote from: Admiral Yi on October 16, 2024, 12:22:43 PMWhen the IDF invaded Lebanon the first time Gurkha peacekeepers laid down in from of Israeli tanks.

The UN troops took over the positions from the Israelis as the Israelis withdrew.

The Minsky Moment

Quote from: viper37 on October 16, 2024, 12:06:37 PMI suppose you could call what is happening in the West Bank and Gaza peaceful integration.

I could call it that, but it wouldn't be accurate.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Tamas


viper37

Quote from: crazy canuck on October 16, 2024, 12:20:15 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 16, 2024, 12:16:17 PM
Quote from: crazy canuck on October 16, 2024, 07:35:35 AM
Quote from: viper37 on October 15, 2024, 09:22:49 PM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 15, 2024, 11:59:57 AM
Quote from: viper37 on October 15, 2024, 08:47:39 AMU.N. peacekeepers in Lebanon pledge not to give in to Israeli demands to 'get out of harm's way'

Who's left to attack in the area?  Civilians, check.  Humanitarians, check.  UN Peackeepers, check.  Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Yemen, check.  At least, they haven't targeted the US this time around.

The Peacekeepers are just creating safe zones for Hezbollah. They have never once tried to enforce the UN Resolution that justifies their presence (which was actually to keep Hezbollah out of the southern border region of the country), they need removed.
I knew you'd say that.

Israel never fully retired from Lebanon either (and as usual, Israel does not really recognize the border and regularly operates in Lebanon, it's just a matter of time before parts of it are also annexed and the people are deported elsewhere) and the UN Peacekeepers are not equipped for heavy fighting.

The resolution called for Israel withdrawal and a gradual take over by the Lebanese army and the peacekeeper.  However, neither of these group are equipped to fight against the IDF and push them back while also fighting the Hezbollah.

10 000 soldiers and sailors, including the doctors, administrators and other support staff, all lightly armed, except for a few tanks and light vehicles against 100 000 armed to the teeth Hezbollah fighters and IDF soldiers ready to shoot them in the back as soon as Hezbollah is weakened.

Great deal you got there.  You must be a genius of military strategy.  I'm sure Donald Trump will name you Sec Def.

The issue is that Hezbollah did not vacate the area, which was another key goal of the UN resolution, and in fact increased its use of the area to attack Israel. 

So it's not clear what purpose the UN observers actually served.
Their presence was a mere 2000 soldiers in 2006.  It increased briefly to 15 000 for a few years than got reduced back to 15 000.  It includes a couple of warships to help prevent smuggling, in assistance to the Lebanase navy, administrative staff, support staff.  As of this conflict they are around 10 000.  No artillery, no aviation, no heavy tanks.  The Hezbollah is well entranched, so was the IDF in the villages it controlled.

Their mandates does not allow them to attack anyone, only to defend.  They can't force the Hezbollah out of their lair, nor can't they push back Israel.  Even if the mandate had been changed, with the number of troops they have, as soon as they would attack Hezbollah, the IDF would use the vacuum and launch its own attack as it's doing now and has been doing in the past.  They'd get slaughtered if they tried to resist.

Peacekeepers can only enforce a cease-fire, they're not equipped to wage a war on two fronts.




All of which is entirely correct, and is also entirely consistent with wondering why they are still there.  As you correctly point out, they cannot carry out their mandate of observing whether a UN resolution is being observed, when neither side (and arguably especially the Lebanese side) never did, or could, comply with the resolution.
It's a question for the security council, of which the US is a permanent member.

We have a few Americans here.  Maybe they can enlighten us.  Otto, Raz, why does the US not want the UN Peacekeepers to have a meaningful role in Lebanon?
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

viper37

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on October 16, 2024, 12:33:07 PM
Quote from: viper37 on October 16, 2024, 12:06:37 PMI suppose you could call what is happening in the West Bank and Gaza peaceful integration.

I could call it that, but it wouldn't be accurate.
So, we are making progress.

But you're still not unwilling to talk about a settler dynamic.

How would you describe it, in your own words?
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

OttoVonBismarck

Sad day for the Hamastans of Languish--high probability Sinwar was killed.

Tamas

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 17, 2024, 09:32:43 AMSad day for the Hamastans of Languish--high probability Sinwar was killed.

Give it a break with accusing people here of supporting Hamas, mate. Go and watch a Trump dance video to calm down.

Valmy

Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 17, 2024, 09:32:43 AMSad day for the Hamastans of Languish--high probability Sinwar was killed.

That fucker is largely responsible for this whole mess. Definitely a justified killing.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Barrister

Quote from: Valmy on October 17, 2024, 11:32:17 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 17, 2024, 09:32:43 AMSad day for the Hamastans of Languish--high probability Sinwar was killed.

That fucker is largely responsible for this whole mess. Definitely a justified killing.

BY the way we had a bit of a discussion in the Canada - redux thread about when is a country justified in military-style killing versus seeking extradition and working through the judicial process.

There's no question here.  There's a de facto state of war between Israel and Hamas (I would argue commenced by Hamas, but doesn't matter), so Sinwar as its leader is definitely a valid military target
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

crazy canuck

Quote from: Valmy on October 17, 2024, 11:32:17 AM
Quote from: OttoVonBismarck on October 17, 2024, 09:32:43 AMSad day for the Hamastans of Languish--high probability Sinwar was killed.

That fucker is largely responsible for this whole mess. Definitely a justified killing.

Yeah, its the main reason I have so much sympathy for the civilians caught up in this.  He was willing the sacrifice all of them to obtain his political objectives.