Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

When news is the R is back above 1 in the Northwest, this was Manchester:



I am sorry, I am fully aware that racism is an issue in the UK as well, but we are not the USA just yet, and there's no point in doing this when we are probably the worst-off country in Europe with the pandemic at the moment.

[celedhring]

I went shopping and stumbled upon an anti-racism demo, too, which was not particularly keeping safe distances between participants. I found myself quite torn...   

[Josquius]

I blame Cummings. :p

But seriously, the lockdown has been going on a while now, its not surprising these protests would have a big turn out. The lockdown has been steadily falling apart for some time and people have been really looking for any excuse to get out. The clear as mud rules and regulations and the lack of arrests for breaking the lockdown likely leads many to not even realise they shouldn't be doing this.

[Sheilbh]

I went shopping and stumbled upon an anti-racism demo, too, which was not particularly keeping safe distances between participants. I found myself quite torn...   

Yeah same.

I mean the flipside is there's been no examples of outdoor transmission yet - and we have an incredible international experiment going on at the minute.

When news is the R is back above 1 in the Northwest, this was Manchester:

Two thoughts on this. One - this is why we need regional control and measures over this.

Two - there's been a very recent and interesting divergence that no-one can explain yet on the R number. Basically all of the models (and the PHE/Cambridge model is the lowest) have shown R trending up and between 0.9-1 in most regions, but over 1 in some regions. On the other hand there's the ONS infection survey where they are testing thousands every week to determine prevalence and then with Oxford and the Wellcome Institute, they also try to determine an R - theirs is still 0.7-0.9 in all regions.

Until now the ONS and the models were basically in sync. But now with the Cambridge/PHE model you'd expect around 17k new cases a day, based on the random testing by the ONS it's about 5.5-6k. So now the ONS survey is way outside the confidence intervals of the models. No-one knows why - and the fact that all the models have moved in the same direction makes me think they're probably correct, but then I'm not sure why or how the ONS random survey wouldn't pick up an increase.

It's a bit of a mystery at the minute.

But seriously, the lockdown has been going on a while now, its not surprising these protests would have a big turn out. The lockdown has been steadily falling apart for some time and people have been really looking for any excuse to get out. The clear as mud rules and regulations and the lack of arrests for breaking the lockdown likely leads many to not even realise they shouldn't be doing this.

I'm not sure in the current climate lots of lockdown arrests would be particularly helpful (not least because police stations or jails are probably far more dangerous for transmission), especially given that so far, unsurprisingly, the fines that have been issued and the police stopping people for lockdown have, I understand, disproportionately affected BAME communities.

[Tamas]

I am not really torn on it. There's evidence that Covid-19 is more lethal to BAME people, then you invite thousands of them to get together and call it "Black Lives Matter". Well, don't matter that much to the organisers. And then the police and the government are too afraid of being controversial by banning it. And all of this because what's going in an other country.

And sure its harder to transmit outside but I doubt how much the data on that includes such mass demos people piling together. When you have people breathing down your neck, I have a hard time believing it matters whether its in an office or a park.

It's just bloody stupid and irresponsible, even if the key message of the protest is 100% valid.

[Sheilbh]

Of course that sort of points to the other possible end of coronavirus - we stop caring, the world moves on even as the virus continues and eventually there's a vaccine.

People knew about Spanish flu happening, but decided there were other things happening. Similarly Asian flu in the 50s - which globally killed around 1-4 million people and locally cost the UK millions in shutting down workplaces and sickness benefits, in some parts of France over half the workforce were bedridden. But it didn't become the dominant issue of our politics and our lives. Same with Hong Kong flu in 67-68 which killed over a million.

It feels like at some point people will just move on, but I'd always suspected it would be the economy that caused that.

[The Brain]

I mean the flipside is there's been no examples of outdoor transmission yet - and we have an incredible international experiment going on at the minute.

Do we know if anyone used public transport to get to the demonstration?

[Sheilbh]

On being too soon hospitalisations are starting to tick back up in Texas. And this scene in Las Vegas is extraordinary
https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1269169419998990336?s=20

Protests will be off in London for a while - huge storm breaking and lots of rain.

[Tamas]

On being too soon hospitalisations are starting to tick back up in Texas. And this scene in Las Vegas is extraordinary
https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1269169419998990336?s=20

Protests will be off in London for a while - huge storm breaking and lots of rain.

Well, if a global pandemic won't make people stay home, getting their hair wet sure will!

[Barrister]

On being too soon hospitalisations are starting to tick back up in Texas. And this scene in Las Vegas is extraordinary
https://twitter.com/ArashMarkazi/status/1269169419998990336?s=20

Protests will be off in London for a while - huge storm breaking and lots of rain.

Oh dear Lord.

[Josquius]

I am not really torn on it. There's evidence that Covid-19 is more lethal to BAME people, then you invite thousands of them to get together and call it "Black Lives Matter". Well, don't matter that much to the organisers. And then the police and the government are too afraid of being controversial by banning it. And all of this because what's going in an other country.

And sure its harder to transmit outside but I doubt how much the data on that includes such mass demos people piling together. When you have people breathing down your neck, I have a hard time believing it matters whether its in an office or a park.

It's just bloody stupid and irresponsible, even if the key message of the protest is 100% valid.

Is there evidence of it being worse for BAME people?
I thought the genetic link had been looked into but nothing found. It hitting minorities disproportionately is down to other reasons

[Tamas]

I am not really torn on it. There's evidence that Covid-19 is more lethal to BAME people, then you invite thousands of them to get together and call it "Black Lives Matter". Well, don't matter that much to the organisers. And then the police and the government are too afraid of being controversial by banning it. And all of this because what's going in an other country.

And sure its harder to transmit outside but I doubt how much the data on that includes such mass demos people piling together. When you have people breathing down your neck, I have a hard time believing it matters whether its in an office or a park.

It's just bloody stupid and irresponsible, even if the key message of the protest is 100% valid.

Is there evidence of it being worse for BAME people?
I thought the genetic link had been looked into but nothing found. It hitting minorities disproportionately is down to other reasons

Well I agree it's not a genetic thing almost certainly, but statistically they are disproportionally affected by it in this country.

[viper37]

I am not really torn on it. There's evidence that Covid-19 is more lethal to BAME people, then you invite thousands of them to get together and call it "Black Lives Matter". Well, don't matter that much to the organisers. And then the police and the government are too afraid of being controversial by banning it. And all of this because what's going in an other country.

And sure its harder to transmit outside but I doubt how much the data on that includes such mass demos people piling together. When you have people breathing down your neck, I have a hard time believing it matters whether its in an office or a park.

It's just bloody stupid and irresponsible, even if the key message of the protest is 100% valid.

Is there evidence of it being worse for BAME people?
I thought the genetic link had been looked into but nothing found. It hitting minorities disproportionately is down to other reasons

poorer communities are worstly affected, in the US at least.  In Montreal, one poorer 'hood was badly effected, and it was because many women there worked in ltc homes and got it from there, or from someone else who got it there.

[Valmy]

Well I agree it's not a genetic thing almost certainly, but statistically they are disproportionally affected by it in this country.

Because they are more likely to work essential industries right?

[Zoupa]

Well I agree it's not a genetic thing almost certainly, but statistically they are disproportionally affected by it in this country.

Because they are more likely to work essential industries right?

Yes, and more likely to get shittier treatment when hospitalized.