Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

The context was supplied by the post I responded to and quoted.  Sorry if that was not clear.

[Tamas]

The Guardian has rounded up some European health experts who think that the increased transmissibility of the new variant is not yet proven :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/european-experts-urge-caution-over-new-covid-mutation-uk

Let's hope their scepticism is not misplaced.

I suspect what happened was that Johnson or somebody else high enough spotted in the briefing that this strain may be more contagious, and since they were in a pickle with earlier doubling down politically on the Christmas party season a lot of people said from the beginning was a stupid idea, they put the new strain on their flag for what has to be about their 4th "ok, in the last second we admit we were wrong" moment.

This doesn't mean the the new strain isn't more dangerous, but the severity of this strain is claimed and declared by untrustworthy pricks who benefit politically from saying so.

The Europeans acting on this with the blockade is not necessarily proof because they can't really afford risking the assumption Johnson is being Johnson.

[Valmy]

The context was supplied by the post I responded to and quoted.  Sorry if that was not clear.

Yeah just specify what point you want me to reach based on what you are saying.

[Valmy]

I'm going to admit, I'm not that comfortable with direct payments like this.  I benefit more than most since I have so little money and I'm not a deficit hawk like Yi, but still...  I'm particularly worried that both Democrats and Republicans have the Senate race in Georgia in mind when they passed this bill.  I don't like even the hint that Congress is passing out free money to affect an election.


I know, this is an emergency, and I don't have any better ideas.  It just doesn't feel right.

I feel much better about it than all the billions that are going to institutions. Institutions should get their money from the people they serve. If that is not where they get their money what is their incentive to provide great services to people? It strikes me as far better, in a crisis, to give the stimulus to the people so then the institutions that need to still be around can be selected by the people who they serve.

And cash that addresses poverty and desperation also eases a lot of political tension by removing huge potential for radicalization in the face of desperation. And poverty is incredibly expensive for a society compared to just giving direct cash payments. It might also mean that small businesses that are shut down due to government orders might have their workers wages paid until they can open up again, which just seems reasonable to me. It is not that small businesses fault.

So that is my thinking on it. But that is also why I think a UBI in general is a good idea since the government cannot possibly keep up with the big economic upheavals and changes that are expected under rapid technological and climate change that we can expect in the coming decades. It is best to just ensure people can survive and can figure out a way to weather the storm then try to plug every hole in the dyke.

[Sheilbh]

I suspect what happened was that Johnson or somebody else high enough spotted in the briefing that this strain may be more contagious, and since they were in a pickle with earlier doubling down politically on the Christmas party season a lot of people said from the beginning was a stupid idea, they put the new strain on their flag for what has to be about their 4th "ok, in the last second we admit we were wrong" moment.

I don't know. I think the government have mishandled Christmas but I think they were absolutely hellbent on "not cancelling Christmas" and were desperate to avoid that even a few days before. The NERVTAG meeting on this new strain was on Friday and I think that scared them into action.

It feels like there's two options - either they're not very competent at managing or able to get ahead of the virus and there's a new strain which has forced them into this climbdown, or despite attacking Labour for wanting to "cancel Christmas" on Wednesday they actually wanted to change their plans all along and are using this as an excuse/justification. I just can't see the logic or the benefit behind the sort of conspiracy logic and even this government surely aren't stupid enough to attack the opposition on Wednesday for a policy they intend to announce on Saturday. Whereas I can well believe they've fucked up and one of the many things that could go wrong with their Christmas plans went wrong

This doesn't mean the the new strain isn't more dangerous, but the severity of this strain is claimed and declared by untrustworthy pricks who benefit politically from saying so.

This piece is really good:
https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-dangerous-is-the-covid-mutation/

There's no reason to think it's more dangerous, or that it doesn't respond to existing treatments or the vaccine. But it seems likely that it does spread more - for example there's evidence of increased transmission but hospitalisations are where you'd expect for that rate of transmission.

The Europeans acting on this with the blockade is not necessarily proof because they can't really afford risking the assumption Johnson is being Johnson.

Sure but I think there is an assumption I've seen from European experts and Americans that the UK scientists can't be trusted/are acting under pressure (largely, I think, because of Brexit and the Johnson=Trump view). I think that's wrong (and I'd note that both the EMA and FDA came under public pressure from politicians to approve the Pfizer vaccine more speedily - the MHRA didn't). There's no doubt scorn is deserved for Johnson - but I've not seen any evidence to think the scientists and regulators aren't acting independently.

[Valmy]

This whole new strain shit is a nightmare. I sure hope it is just alarmist nonsense because my country just cannot go on like this much longer.

[Razgovory]

The US lost 20,600 people in the Normandy campaign.  The campaign lasted nearly three months.  The US has lost 50,000 people in the month of December to covid.  I can't help but think that we aren't making a big enough deal about this.

[The Larch]

So, I've just received a message from my regional health system, communicating me that I've been selected for random Covid testing (they've been performing these tests in my city for the last few weeks), and turns out that this very same week I've developed a bit of a regular cold, which I'm currently "enjoying". Does anyone know if having a cold interferes with Covid testing in some way?

And I just got tested tonight. Got my appointment yesterday for today a bit later than 21h, in a drive-through system they've organized in one of the city's hospitals. Pretty long queue once you got there, ended up getting tested like 15 minutes later than my appointment, and they seemd to be in a bit of a hurry to be done with us all. I'll get my results in 24-48 hours.

[Sheilbh]

And I just got tested tonight. Got my appointment yesterday for today a bit later than 21h, in a drive-through system they've organized in one of the city's hospitals. Pretty long queue once you got there, ended up getting tested like 15 minutes later than my appointment, and they seemd to be in a bit of a hurry to be done with us all. I'll get my results in 24-48 hours.

Hope it's negative - or at least asymptomatic

Looks like this is the new data on this variant covid:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/947048/Technical_Briefing_VOC_SH_NJL2_SH2.pdf
Figure 2 is really striking showing this variant going from about 5% of tests run by the Milton Keynes Lighthouse Lab in mid-October to about 95% by the end of November.

The summary:

A novel variant has been identified which has spread rapidly within the UK. We have assessed this variant as having substantially increased transmissibility with high confidence. Further studies are underway to characterise the variant and updates will be provided.

The models show an increase in the number of 0.5 to 0.7 from normal/old covid mainly in Tier 2 conditions. But it feels like we need to lockdown and just race to get everyone vulnerable. vaccinated.

[mongers]

Might the UK have been under N.B.C. attack from a foreign power testing it's capabilities?
First we had the murder in London using the nuclear polonium isotope, then the Skripal's attack in Salisbury with the Novichok nerve agent

And now the channel ports/London hit by a significantly different variant of coronavirus, just at the time when those trade routes are under severe pressure from the looming brexit disruption.  

[HisMajestyBOB]

The US lost 20,600 people in the Normandy campaign.  The campaign lasted nearly three months.  The US has lost 50,000 people in the month of December to covid.  I can't help but think that we aren't making a big enough deal about this.

Maybe 60 years from now we'll have some kickass video games where you can fight off waves of viruses.

[Valmy]

The US lost 20,600 people in the Normandy campaign.  The campaign lasted nearly three months.  The US has lost 50,000 people in the month of December to covid.  I can't help but think that we aren't making a big enough deal about this.

Maybe 60 years from now we'll have some kickass video games where you can fight off waves of viruses.

The 80s are going to be so awesome!

[The Minsky Moment]

The US lost 20,600 people in the Normandy campaign.  The campaign lasted nearly three months.  The US has lost 50,000 people in the month of December to covid.  I can't help but think that we aren't making a big enough deal about this.

Clearly the PR problem is that the virus isn't killing off enough Germans.
Perhaps there's a Russian variant that will do the job?

[Zanza]

The Guardian has rounded up some European health experts who think that the increased transmissibility of the new variant is not yet proven :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/european-experts-urge-caution-over-new-covid-mutation-uk

Let's hope their scepticism is not misplaced.

Christian Drosten who is cited there and is the foremost German expert on the virus reviewed the latest data and now revised his view and said "it does not look good". 

[Sheilbh]

Thanks for that Sheilbh; looks like the government is in the clear on "keeping the variant secret".

Incidentally apparently the UK has been a good neighbour on this and the scientists were briefing initial findings before the NERVTAG meeting on Friday - the ECDC and WHO were briefed on Wednesday 16 December (when Johnson was attacking Starmer for wanting to "cancel Christmas") which was before the NERVTAG meeting that apparently flagged this to ministers. I think the government's failure to protect its citizens led to a situation where this mutation could happen, but at least from what I've seen they've behaved appropriately in informing others.

This is still happens - where we know people have travelled last week from London and South-East across the country. We need to go to Tier 4 everywhere I think. I think we need to go back to full lockdown (like last spring) and try to get everyone who is high risk vaccinated ASAP.

36 cases on a Chilean army base in Antarctica. So this has now officially spread to every continent in the world.

Edit:

Christian Drosten who is cited there and is the foremost German expert on the virus reviewed the latest data and now revised his view and said "it does not look good". 

Annoyingly I'm not seeing those comments being reported or shared much in the UK, but lots of people circulating yesterday's comments to show why people shouldn't take it seriously (I hate social media sometimes)

Edit: And current briefing by the scientists saying that they started looking into Kent during lockdown because cases were plateauing or falling everywhere in England except for Kent by 20 November. They initially sent in public health experts, but they couldn't find any behavioural differences so they looked at the genetics and basically noticed that covid's R was 0.8 but the R number for the new strain was 1.2. The new variant now accounts for 80% of cases in London so, like in Milton Keynes (and like happened with the European strain in the spring) this mutated version has basically taken over.