Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Tamas]

My thinking is that there does not evidence in public that this new strain is something to worry about (more so than current virus).

I see that we knew about the new strain at least as early as Monday as BBC had article then with health secretary speaking to new strain. That happens to be same day that education secretary threatened to sue London councils having school go virtual for week before Christmas.

It does feel like the UK government has now latched on to the strain as attempt at political cover rather than admit failure  given we all knew signs had pointed toward Christmas relaxation making no sense.

And then other countries? They are just acting out of an abundance of caution like what was done with Denmark. I don't think anyone can accuse the UK government of acting out of an abundance of caution.

Yes that's pretty much my point: it's not like everything was going fine and the Christmas grand opening was seeming like a reasonable risk and the PUFF new strain appeared and rapidly ruined everything. Things were getting worse even before we first heard of the new strain.

And I hate on people on general for being careless not just on London :p

[Sheilbh]

My thinking is that there does not evidence in public that this new strain is something to worry about (more so than current virus).

I see that we knew about the new strain at least as early as Monday as BBC had article then with health secretary speaking to new strain. That happens to be same day that education secretary threatened to sue London councils having school go virtual for week before Christmas.

It does feel like the UK government has now latched on to the strain as attempt at political cover rather than admit failure  given we all knew signs had pointed toward Christmas relaxation making no sense.

And then other countries? They are just acting out of an abundance of caution like what was done with Denmark. I don't think anyone can accuse the UK government of acting out of an abundance of caution.

Maybe. The PM was having a go at Starmer accusing him of wanting to cancel Christmas on Wednesday. It may be they're just not very competent - even at the politics bit of the job.

But as I say Italy have no joined in closing borders to the UK and Scotland is putting restrictions on travel from England. And my friend in the NHS sent a message round saying there's some evidence this may spread through surface transmission (which wasn't really true of normal covid) so to make sure we're all very strong on hand-washing, washing items coming into the house (either shopping or deliveries) and masks.

Edit: Benelux, Italy, Austria, Ireland and Kuwait banning flights from UK now and I saw Anthony Costello writing that actually if this new strain is spreading the UK (and it is) it probably means we need to change vaccine plans.

[Duque de Bragança]

From midnight on, all travel from the UK to France to be suspended, as well.

[Sheilbh]

I wonder if it might be too late - something I've been wondering about the UK is that new cases started climbing very quickly in late November/Early December which was before lockdown was lifted. It seemed odd/slightly inexplicable at the time. I think other countries have seen something similar in the numbers were going in the right direction and seem to have started accelerating againt - I think it's certainly the case in Belgium/Netherlands/France/Germany.

The new strain in the UK was found in a sample from September and analysed in October. It was in the last two weeks that it was reviewed by government committee:
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921

But the other thing that worries me is in the UK at least we got R down to 0.6 in the first lockdown. This strain - based on early analysis - has an R number about 0.4-0.5 higher than normal covid. So it's not even clear if full lockdown would work. It might just be a sort of race against time to vaccinate as many people as we can as quickly as we can?

Edit: And, incidentally, if that is the difference in transmission very much worth banning travel from the UK.

[Zanza]

From midnight on, all travel from the UK to France to be suspended, as well.

Working in supply chain management in Britain must truly suck right now. First the Brexit stock building, then this. And then in eleven days no deal.

[Sheilbh]

From midnight on, all travel from the UK to France to be suspended, as well.

Britain's closed Eurotunnel from 10pm tonight for at least 48 hours (for UK-outward travel). As I say travel in or out of Tier 4 areas isn't allowed but it feels like we need to actually extend Tier 4 to the country and we may need to take other steps to stop the spread of this to neighbours who are not banning travel yet (and I thought travel bans/ border closures would be pointless in the first wave but it's something all of East Asia did and I think it is actually key - so I think the rest of our neighbours should be banning travel from the UK).

This was the minutes of NERVTAG which is the government scientific advisors on this sort of thing from Friday:
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921

These are the bits that seem key:

Four analytic approaches were reviewed regarding the transmissibility of VUI-202012/01:
oGrowth rate from genomic data:which suggest a growth rate of VUI-202012/01that that is 71% (95%CI: 67%-75%) higher than other variants.
oStudies  of  correlation  between  R-values  and detection  of  the  variant: which suggest an absolute increase in the R-value of between 0.39 to 0.93.
oPCR ct values: which suggest a decrease of ct value of around 2 associated with the new variant.
oViral load inferred from number of unique genome reads: which suggests 0.5 increase in median log10inferred viral load in Y501 versus N501.
[...]
It was noted that whilst previous variants have successfully emerged in periods of low prevalencewithout clear evidence of having a selective advantage, the emergence and subsequent  dominance  ofVUI-202012/01in  a  period  of  relatively  high  prevalencesuggests VUI-202012/01does have a selective advantage over other variants.
It was noted that VUI-202012/01has demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place.
In summary, NERVTAG has moderate confidence that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates a substantialincrease in transmissibility compared to other variants.
[...]
The committee discussed the geographic extentof spread of the variant:
oWithin the UK, the variant is concentrated in the London, South East and East of England but has been detected in various parts of the UK.
oFew cases of this variant have been reportedinternationally but one confirmed export from the UK to Australia has been reported. It was noted that other countries have lower sequencing capability than the UK.

Hopefully we can restrict the spread here. But as I say if those R numbers are correct then it's just a race against time to get people vaccinated because even at the peak of the first lockdown the estimated R number only went down to 0.6. If there's an absolute increase to that of 0.4-0.9, then lockdown won't stop the spread.

Edit: As I wasn't going back for Christmas I was going to do quite a quiet one this year - but fuck that given all this news. I'll be doing full Christmas instead

[mongers]

....
Britain's closed Eurotunnel from 10pm tonight for at least 48 hours (for UK-outward travel). As I say travel in or out of Tier 4 areas isn't allowed but it feels like we need to actually extend Tier 4 to the country and we may need to take other steps to stop the spread of this to neighbours who are not banning travel yet (and I thought travel bans/ border closures would be pointless in the first wave but it's something all of East Asia did and I think it is actually key - so I think the rest of our neighbours should be banning travel from the UK).
....

Yes, there seems little point keeping tier 2 areas like mine largely open, but only 95 miles of motorway from central London, and with infection rates only a few days behind the capital.

This afternoon the two A roads around here were busy, like you'd expect on a typical last Sunday before Xmas; I presume a lot of people are dying to do some last minute shopping. 

[Admiral Yi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49sqkuxnsx8

Agreement reached on US covid relief stimulus 2.0.

$600 check.

$300/week unemployment boost.

Total cost 900 billion.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I have one more kid now than I did in the spring, so extra $ for us. 
I'll put the "kids'" stimulus in their college funds, and donate a good chunk of the remainder to the local food bank.

[Valmy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49sqkuxnsx8

Agreement reached on US covid relief stimulus 2.0.

$600 check.

$300/week unemployment boost.

Total cost 900 billion.

I hope it makes a difference for all those families struggling this year.

[garbon]

I wonder if it might be too late - something I've been wondering about the UK is that new cases started climbing very quickly in late November/Early December which was before lockdown was lifted. It seemed odd/slightly inexplicable at the time. I think other countries have seen something similar in the numbers were going in the right direction and seem to have started accelerating againt - I think it's certainly the case in Belgium/Netherlands/France/Germany.

The new strain in the UK was found in a sample from September and analysed in October. It was in the last two weeks that it was reviewed by government committee:
https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921

But the other thing that worries me is in the UK at least we got R down to 0.6 in the first lockdown. This strain - based on early analysis - has an R number about 0.4-0.5 higher than normal covid. So it's not even clear if full lockdown would work. It might just be a sort of race against time to vaccinate as many people as we can as quickly as we can?

Edit: And, incidentally, if that is the difference in transmission very much worth banning travel from the UK.

How could it not be too late if it has been freely traveling since September?

I see Italy has announced they have a patient with the new strain who had recently returned from the UK.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/belgium-italy-and-netherlands-ban-flights-from-uk-over-new-covid-strain

The WHO said it was in close contact with British officials, and that outside the UK nine cases of the new strain had been reported in Denmark, one in the Netherlands and one in Australia. "Across Europe, where transmission is intense and widespread, countries need to redouble their control and prevention approaches," a spokeswoman for WHO Europe said.

[jimmy olsen]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49sqkuxnsx8

Agreement reached on US covid relief stimulus 2.0.

$600 check.

$300/week unemployment boost.

Total cost 900 billion.

I hope it makes a difference for all those families struggling this year.

Lol. $600 is half a rent check in most places.

Meanwhile, we have crossed the 50,000 dead mark in this month already in America.

[Valmy]

Lol. $600 is half a rent check in most places.

Meanwhile, we have crossed the 50,000 dead mark in this month already in America.

Oh I am aware. I would want $1,000 a month for the duration of the crisis.

But it is some crumbs. Sometimes a few crumbs can make a difference.

[Richard Hakluyt]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/belgium-italy-and-netherlands-ban-flights-from-uk-over-new-covid-strain

The WHO said it was in close contact with British officials, and that outside the UK nine cases of the new strain had been reported in Denmark, one in the Netherlands and one in Australia. "Across Europe, where transmission is intense and widespread, countries need to redouble their control and prevention approaches," a spokeswoman for WHO Europe said.

The new strain is already out there and may explain at least some of the additional difficulties that various countries have faced with the second wave. Horse, stable door, bolted .... blah blah blah

The government should not have kept this secret for so long.