News:

And we're back!

Main Menu

Which Venezuelan President is Legitimate?

Started by derspiess, February 05, 2019, 12:09:42 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Based on your understanding of the current situation in Venezuela, which Venezuelan President is Legitimate?

Nicolas Maduro
2 (6.7%)
Juan Guaidó
14 (46.7%)
Comandante Jarón
14 (46.7%)

Total Members Voted: 30

derspiess

Just wanted to get the pulse of Languish on this one.  I haven't heard anyone speak favorably of Maduro, per se, but I get the feeling some folks are dubious of Guaidó's claim.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Habbaku

Weird options, but obviously Maduro isn't legitimate. That doesn't mean Guaido is by default, though.
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.

-J. R. R. Tolkien

Valmy

By the standards of a western democracy, neither. But I think Guaido is more likely to conduct a free and fair election that is likely to result in a legitimate President.

Anyway I do think I can say that if a free and fair election was held, Jaron would win in a landslide.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

derspiess

Quote from: Habbaku on February 05, 2019, 12:11:34 PM
Weird options, but obviously Maduro isn't legitimate. That doesn't mean Guaido is by default, though.

Not by default, no.  By the 1999 constitution, yes.
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

The Minsky Moment

#4
I have no expertise in Venezuelan constitutional law, but Guaido's case seems plausible:

1) Maduro's presidential term ended January 10, 2019.
2) Under the constitution, the National Electoral Council is given the authority to organize new presidential elections as the "Electoral Power"
3) Maduro did not convene the National Electoral Council to organize the presidential election
4) Instead he called a "National Constituent Assembly" and that body then organized Presidential elections
5) However, under the constitution a National Constituent Asssembly is formed for the purpose of amending the constitution.  It is like a constitutional convention in the US.  It can draft a new constitution; however, until a new constitution is adopted, it has no authority to organize presidential elections.
6) Thus, the last Venezuelan presidential election was not conducted in accordance with the Constitution.  (in addition it suffered from many other infirmities and defects, well covered in the press).
7)  Thus, as of Janunary 10, 2019, there is no constitutionally and duly elected President of Venezuela.
8) Thus, as of Janunary 10, 2019, , the office of the President of Venezula is vacant.
9) Under the constitution if there a vacancy in the office of President, new elections have to be held.  In the interim, the President of the National Assembly serves as acting President.
10) Guiado is the President of the National Assembly.

Not every step in the chain is iron clad but it's a decent argument.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

celedhring

Was the case forwarded to their Constitutional Court? I presume it's all made up by Maduro stooges, but I'd like to hear if they ever ruled on the legality of Maduro's term.

DGuller

At some point it doesn't matter what some piece of paper says.  If you mismanage your country into starvation, you lose your legitimacy to rule over it.  If established order is incompatible with basic survival needs, survival needs prevail.

mongers

The one that's responsible for the least number of dead fellow citizens, be that via political violence, stoking the embers of civil war or indirectly starving them.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Maximus

False equivalence IMO. Guaidó is only claiming to be acting president until one can be duly elected.

Iormlund

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 05, 2019, 01:05:57 PM
I have no expertise in Venezuelan constitutional law, but Guaido's case seems plausible:

1) Maduro's presidential term ended January 10, 2019.
2) Under the constitution, the National Electoral Council is given the authority to organize new presidential elections as the "Electoral Power"
3) Maduro did not convene the National Electoral Council to organize the presidential election
4) Instead he called a "National Constituent Assembly" and that body then organized Presidential elections
5) However, under the constitution a National Constituent Asssembly is formed for the purpose of amending the constitution.  It is like a constitutional convention in the US.  It can draft a new constitution; however, until a new constitution is adopted, it has no authority to organize presidential elections.
6) Thus, the last Venezuelan presidential election was not conducted in accordance with the Constitution.  (in addition it suffered from many other infirmities and defects, well covered in the press).
7)  Thus, as of Janunary 10, 2019, there is no constitutionally and duly elected President of Venezuela.
8) Thus, as of Janunary 10, 2019, , the office of the President of Venezula is vacant.
9) Under the constitution if there a vacancy in the office of President, new elections have to be held.  In the interim, the President of the National Assembly serves as acting President.
10) Guiado is the President of the National Assembly.

Not every step in the chain is iron clad but it's a decent argument.

This. Notice he is not President, but Acting President until new elections take place.

Threviel


derspiess

Splitting hairs.  Nobody is saying Guaidó is president for a full term or for life. 
"If you can play a guitar and harmonica at the same time, like Bob Dylan or Neil Young, you're a genius. But make that extra bit of effort and strap some cymbals to your knees, suddenly people want to get the hell away from you."  --Rich Hall

Barrister

I just wonder how Guaido hasn't been arrested yet.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Delirium

Maybe the strongest evidence that this is for real I think. If just another coup and Maduro had a free rein, then G would be gone already. Or there may be a deal in place?
Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen, and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again; but don't speak too soon for the wheel's still in spin, and there's no telling who that it's naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changin'. -- B Dylan

Habbaku

Quote from: Barrister on February 05, 2019, 04:49:05 PM
I just wonder how Guaido hasn't been arrested yet.

I imagine he surrounds himself with supporters at the moment. Any attempt to arrest him might result in a shooting match with the security forces, and that won't exactly look good for Maduro, will it?
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.

-J. R. R. Tolkien