What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[viper37]

Trump has backed down on his 50% steel & aluminum tariffs, so Ford has back down on his electricity export tariffs.  They're supposed to meet on March 13th.

Still keep on the original 25% so Ford blinked first?

I can't follow...

Sorry, was asking if trumps keeping the original 25% tariff. And if so then Ford gave up first.

I mean, I can't follow anymore what's left, what's added, what's retired...
I can't follow what's going on... I think my head is spinning...

[The Minsky Moment]

None of that applies to Canada.The very first thing you would see if Trump ordered an invasion would be a mass resignation on the part of officers who had no obligated service left, and the second would be a refusal of many soldiers to leave the barracks.  Yeah, the most MAGA of the MAGAts might be gun ho, but even they would think twice before risking their lives on a such a stupid mission.  The number of excuses for non-action would clog the communications channels.

In addition - as servile as the GOP Congress is, I don't think Trump can get a proper declaration of war.  That wouldn't stop him for issuing orders to generals, but it would fuel the mass of resignations and lower morale further.  The US would also be hit by sanctions from the EU.

If the political goal is to incorporate Canada into the United States, it's not enough to simply roll the Rangers into Toronto and Montreal.  Proper administrations would need to be set up with lots of civil servant types to do the bureaucratic work.  Assuming only a limited number of native quislings are available to cooperate in that work, it's a real problem (Trump and MAGA are not extremely popular now with the kinds of people with experience in running a proper US style civil administration). 

A Canadian government in exile or operating from the interior could continue to issue administrative orders and direct tax payments etc. and the invading forces would need a strong civil and miliary presence throughout the country to counteract that.  It would require a massive, continuing and ruinously expensive deployment with no natural base of domestic support.  Because occupying forces would need to be spread out, they would be vulnerable to hit and run tactics, insurgent efforts, and simple civil disobedience.  It would be a shit show.

[DGuller]

Just how fucked up is this that we're even discussing the logistics of administering occupied Canada? 

[Bauer]

What could have caused this decoupling of US aluminium prices from the world market?  Huge win!

Of all the incomprehensible tariffs, the aluminum one is the one I understand the least.

It's my understanding that aluminum production requires cheap electricity in addition to the ore, which is why Quebec and BC produce so much with abundant hydroelectric power.

Meanwhile isn't Trump also trying to secure aluminum shortages with deals with Ukraine and Russia?

The level of madness is frightening because it shows there's little hope of real negotiation.

[crazy canuck]

Just how fucked up is this that we're even discussing the logistics of administering occupied Canada? 

It's what Languish was made for 

[Grey Fox]

Just how fucked up is this that we're even discussing the logistics of administering occupied Canada? 

Killing Arambe threw us into the stupidest time line.

[Grey Fox]

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lk4wnkihzp2r

Vilainization continues. At the hand of Canada's #1 enemy, Peter Navarro.

[Razgovory]

Just how fucked up is this that we're even discussing the logistics of administering occupied Canada? 

Things aren't exactly going well.

[grumbler]

Just how fucked up is this that we're even discussing the logistics of administering occupied Canada? 

It's what Languish was made for 

Can I be: Ottoman Empire?

[grumbler]

[Syt]

The UN had a vote on introducing an "International Day of Hope," a vague "let's all be nicer to each other" initiative.

https://press.un.org/en/2025/ga12676.doc.htm#:~:text=International%20Day%20of%20Peaceful%20Coexistence%20and%20International%20Day%20of%20Hope

International Day of Peaceful Coexistence and International Day of Hope
The Assembly also considered the draft resolution titled "International Day of Peaceful Coexistence" (document A/79/L.53).  Abdulla bin Ahmed Al Khalifa, Minister for Transportation and Telecommunications of Bahrain, introducing that text, said that it reaffirms the role of Member States and other stakeholders in promoting tolerance, respect for religious and cultural diversity and human rights.

The representative of the United States again said that his delegation will call for a recorded vote on this text — and vote no — expressing concern that the resolution "advances a programme of soft global governance that is inconsistent with US sovereignty".  He added:  "Simply put, globalist endeavours like Agenda 2030 and the SDGs lost at the ballot box; therefore, the US rejects and denounces the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development and the SDGs."

He also expressed concern that the resolution's titular reference to "peaceful coexistence" could be "co-opted to imply the United Nations' endorsement of China's 'Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence'".  Speaking in exercise of the right of reply, China's representative said that such principles are "widely recognized by the international community and contained in many international instruments".

Adopting the resolution by a recorded vote of 162 in favour to 3 against (Argentina, Israel, United States), with 2 abstentions (Paraguay, Peru), the Assembly decided to proclaim 28 January as the International Day of Peaceful Coexistence, to be observed annually.

The Assembly then turned to the draft resolution titled "International Day of Hope" (document A/79/L.54).  Introducing it, Kiribati's representative said that hope is "a force that has carried humanity through the darkest of times and propelled us towards a future of possibility, resilience and renewal".  However, he expressed disappointment over the decision by the United States to force a vote.

On that, the delegate of the United States said that the text "contains references to diversity, equity and inclusion that conflict with US policies that seek to eliminate all forms of discrimination and create equal opportunities for all".  He added: "In a world that faces many challenges, funding and effort should be allocated to critical causes and crises, rather than International Days."

The Assembly then adopted the text by a recorded vote of 161 in favour to 1 against (United States), with 4 abstentions (India, Paraguay, Peru, Türkiye), through which it decided to declare 12 July the International Day of Hope.

"What we've just seen this morning is a clear example of the lack of commitment by the United States to a culture of peace, to the United Nations as a whole and to multilateralism in general," stressed the representative of Cuba, after the vote.

[dist]

The United States of Trolling... 

Anyway, the recap of the day is out. Most of it is known, but it's interesting to have some discussions about economic actors reactions.

March 11, 2025 (Tuesday)

The stock market continued to fall today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell another 478 points, or 1.14%; the S&P 500 fell almost 0.8%; and the Nasdaq Composite fell almost 0.2%. The S&P 500 briefly held its own in trading today, but then Trump announced on his social media platform that he was going to double the tariffs on steel and aluminum from the new 25% rates to a 50% rate on Canada and might increase tariffs to "permanently shut down the automobile manufacturing business in Canada."

Stocks fell again.

Unable to admit that he might be wrong, President Donald Trump is doubling down on the policies that are crashing the economy. In addition to his tariff threats, he also reiterated that "the only thing that makes sense is for Canada to become our cherished Fifty First State," an outrageous position that he suddenly began to advance after the 2024 presidential election and which has Canadians so furious they are boycotting U.S. goods and booing the Star-Spangled Banner.

More than 100 top business leaders met with Trump today to urge him to stop destabilizing what had been a booming economy with his on-again-off-again tariffs. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told Jeff Stein and Isaac Arnsdorf of the Washington Post that in private, "business leaders, CEOs and COOs are nervous, bordering on unnerved, by the policies that are being implemented, how they're being implemented and what the fallout is. There's overwhelming uncertainty and increasing discomfort with how policy is being implemented."

The extreme unpredictability means that no one knows where or how to invest. Market strategist Art Hogan told CNN's Matt Egan, "This market is just blatantly sick and tired of the back and forth on trade policy." Yesterday, Delta Air Lines cut its forecasts for its first-quarter revenue and profits by half, a sign of weakening corporate and consumer confidence and concerns about the safety of air travel. Today, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines cut their forecasts, and American Airlines forecast a first-quarter loss.

When he talked to reporters, Trump reasserted that he intends to do what he wants regardless of the business leaders' input. "Markets are going to go up and they're going to go down, but you know what, we have to rebuild our country. Long-term what I'm doing is making our country strong again." White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt advised, "If people are looking for certainty, they should look at the record of this president."

Not everyone will find that suggestion comforting.

Trump backed off on his threat to raise the tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50%, but went ahead with his threat to place 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum products. Those tariffs took effect at midnight.

In the face of his own troubles, Trump's sidekick billionaire Elon Musk is also escalating his destructive behavior. Yesterday Musk's social media platform X underwent three separate outages that spanned more than six hours. Lily Jamali and Liv McMahon of the BBC reported that Oxford professor Ciaran Martin, former head of the United Kingdom's National Cyber Security Center, said that the outages appear to have been an attack called a "distributed denial of service," or DDoS, attack. This is an old technique in which hackers flood a server to prevent authentic users from reaching a website.

"I can't think of a company of the size and standing internationally of X that's fallen over to a DDoS attack for a very long time," Martin said. The outage "doesn't reflect well on their cyber security." Without any evidence, Musk blamed hackers in Ukraine for the outages, an accusation Martin called "pretty much garbage."

Four days ago, another of Musk's SpaceX rockets exploded after takeoff, and now SpaceX's Starlink internet service is facing headwinds. In February, Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim canceled his collaborations with Starlink after growing tensions with Musk culminated with Musk alleging on X that Slim is tied to organized crime. The loss of that deal cost Musk about $7 billion in the short term, but more in the long term as Slim will work with European and Chinese companies in 25 Latin American countries rather than Starlink. Slim has said he would invest $22 billion in those projects over the next three years.

Also in February, after U.S. negotiators threatened to cut Ukraine's access to the 42,000 Starlink terminals that supply information to the front lines, the European Commission began to look for either government or commercial alternatives. The European Commission is made up of a college of commissioners from each of the 27 European Union countries. It acts as the main executive branch of the European Union.

On Sunday, Musk posted: "[M]y Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian army. Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off." Poland pays for about half the Starlink terminals in Ukraine, about $50 million a year. Poland's minister of foreign affairs, Radosław Sikorski, responded that "if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider we will be forced to look for other suppliers." "Be quiet, small man," Musk replied. "You pay a tiny fraction of the cost. And there is no substitute for Starlink."

After all the tariff drama with Canada, last week Ontario also cancelled a deal it had with Starlink.
But perhaps the biggest hit Musk has taken lately is over his Tesla car brand. On February 6, Musk's younger brother Kimbal, who sits on Tesla's board, sold more than $27 million worth of shares in the company. Tesla chair Robyn Denholm sold about $43 million worth of Tesla stock in February and recently sold another $33 million. Tesla CFO Vaibhav Taneja has sold $8 million worth over the past 90 days. Yesterday, board member James Murdoch sold just over $13 million worth of stock.

Fred Lambert of Electrek, which follows the news about electric vehicles and Tesla, noted that Tesla stock dropped 15% yesterday, "down more than 50% from its all-time high just a few months ago." "Tesla insiders are unloading," he concluded.

Tesla sales are dropping across the globe owing to the unpopularity of Musk's antics, along with the cuts and data breaches from his "Department of Government Efficiency." Protesters have been gathering at Tesla dealerships to express their dismay. While the protests have been peaceful, as Chris Isidore of CNN reports, there have also been reports of vandalism. Tesla owners are facing ridicule as protesters take out their anger toward Musk on his customers, and at least one competitor is working to lure consumers away from Musk's brand by offering a discount to Tesla owners.

Trump has jumped to Musk's defense, posting just after midnight this morning that "Elon Musk is 'putting it on the line' in order to help our Nation, and he is doing a FANTASTIC JOB! But the Radical Left Lunatics, as they often do, are trying to illegally and collusively boycott Tesla, one of the World's great automakers, and Elon's 'baby,' in order to attack and do harm to Elon, and everything he stands for. They tried to do it to me at the 2024 Presidential Ballot Box, but how did that work out? In any event, I'm going to buy a brand new Tesla tomorrow morning as a show of confidence and support for Elon Musk, a truly great American."

Indeed, today Trump used the office of the presidency to bolster Musk's business. Teslas were lined up at the White House, where Trump read from a Tesla sales pitch—photographer Andrew Harnik caught an image of his notes. And then the same man who gave a blanket pardon to those convicted of violent crimes related to the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol called those protesting at Tesla dealerships "domestic terrorists" and promised that the government would make sure they "go through hell."

Trump and Musk appear to have taken the downturn in their fortunes by becoming more aggressive. Martin Pengelly of The Guardian noted that in the middle of Monday's stock market plunge, Trump posted or reposted more than 100 messages on his social media channel. All of them showed him in a positive light, including reminders of the 2004 first season of the television show The Apprentice, in which Trump starred: a golden moment in Trump's past when his ratings were high and the audience seemed to believe he was a brilliant and powerful businessman.

Today, egged on by Musk, Trump pushed again to take over other countries. He told reporters: "When you take away that artificial line that looks like it was done with a ruler...and you look at that beautiful formation of Canada and the United States, there is no place anywhere in the world that looks like that.... And then if you add Greenland...that's pretty good."

The Trump administration also announced today it was cutting about half the employees in the Department of Education. The Senate confirmed Linda McMahon, who has little experience with education, to head the department on March 3 by a party-line vote. Shutting down the department "was the president's mandate—his directive to me," McMahon told Fox News Channel host Laura Ingraham. McMahon assured Ingraham that existing grants and programs would not "fall through the cracks."

But when Ingraham asked her what IDEA stood for—the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act—she wasn't sure, although she knew it was "the programs for disabled and needs." Ingraham knew what the acronym meant but assured McMahon that after 30 years on the job, she still didn't know all the acronyms. McMahon replied: "This is my fifth day on the job and I'm really trying to learn them very quickly."

Musk lashed out at Arizona senator Mark Kelly on social media yesterday, after Kelly posted pictures of his recent trip to Ukraine and discussed the history of Russia's invasion, concluding "it's important we stand with Ukraine." Musk responded: "You are a traitor."
 
Kelly, who was in the Navy for 25 years and flew 39 combat missions in the Gulf War before becoming an astronaut, responded: "Traitor? Elon, if you don't understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do."

[Syt]

Apparently Trump is also taking aim at the CHIPS act which made available $50B for investment in the semiconductor industry. The bill was signed with bipartisan support. Of course he hates it (because Biden). Meanwhile he still wants to fight Taiwan over their chip manufacturing. Guy is a complete idiot.

Two things - tanking the markets allows him and his cronies/puppets/puppeteers to buy stocks cheap, increasing their control of economy.

Secondly, the tariffs income that he keeps boasting about - what's he gonna do with it? Put it into the Federal Bitcoin Reserve?

[Syt]

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/11/politics/opm-spokesperson-fashion-influencer-videos-invs/index.html

As the Office of Personnel Management oversaw the layoffs of thousands of federal workers and pressed others to justify their positions, the agency's chief spokesperson repeatedly used her office for a side hustle: aspiring Instagram fashion influencer.

In at least a dozen videos filmed in her OPM office, political appointee McLaurine Pinover modeled her outfit choices for the day, while directing followers from her Instagram account to a website that could earn her commissions on clothing sales.

On the same day OPM sent a government-wide memo pressing federal officials to identify barriers they faced in their work to "swiftly terminate poor performing employees," Pinover posted a video blowing a kiss to the camera with the caption "work look" and the hashtag #dcinfluencer. Her Instagram account linked to a site where viewers could buy the $475 purple skirt she wore in the video.

One watchdog group said her videos could run afoul of rules restricting the use of government property for personal benefit because, while in the workplace, she was using a website that pays content creators commissions from the clothing brands they promote.

Former OPM staffers during the Biden administration also told CNN that they were offended by Pinover posting as a fashion influencer on government property while defending mass layoffs of federal workers – at a time when top Trump administration officials have accused career employees of being lazy and wasteful.

[...]

[Richard Hakluyt]

You say that, but how many grunts are MAGA? I mean how much animosity did soldiers have against the viets and they oppressed them just fine. Serious question, did America have a grudge against Vietnam? I mean the elites hated the communists, but the actual viet people? Soldiers are soldiers, and have always been soldiers. Get shot at a few times and the good will dries up fast.

There was a lot of animosity against the Viet Cong among the Americans generally and the army specifically. The VC were no angels.  Terrorist attacks were a specialty of theirs. Add that to the known brutality of Communism and you get a lot of people thinking that they are on the side of the angels.

None of that applies to Canada.The very first thing you would see if Trump ordered an invasion would be a mass resignation on the part of officers who had no obligated service left, and the second would be a refusal of many soldiers to leave the barracks.  Yeah, the most MAGA of the MAGAts might be gun ho, but even they would think twice before risking their lives on a such a stupid mission.  The number of excuses for non-action would clog the communications channels.

I think that an invasion of Canada would be a disaster for the US army. They would lose their best officers from the start and I would imagine that many ordinary soldiers might go awol or suddenly become ill. Even if MAGA types are gung ho for the fighting they would be without sensible leadership and rapidly become a Russia-style rabble and commit the usual war crimes. This would permit the enemies of the USA to get up to all kinds of shenanigans elsewhere in the world.

There are other problems with invading Canada of course, but I don't think we even have to deploy morality, self interest on the part of the USA is more than enough to scotch the idea.