Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

I have no idea.

[Syt]

https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1082996064179970053

In short, the whole Seaborne malarkey - minister is asked why this contract was awarded directly citing a clause for "unforeseen circumstances" and "extreme urgency." Opposition politician asks how this can be when there's been a dedicated person to consider a no deal scenario and prepare contingencies for 2 years.

She asks, repeatedly, "What were the unforeseen circumstances?"

Minister's reply, repeatedly, "We've done everything correctly." Nothing else.

Stuff like this is normally a political suicide for a minister, but I guess we're past that point.

[grumbler]

That's an astonishing video, Syt.  Thanks for sharing.

The government awarding an "emergency" contract for ferry services to a company that doesn't have any ferries?  That has never run a ferry service and has no people, facilities, or procedures to do so?  Unreal.  It's pretty clear why the government didn't want to subject Seaborne to a competition it could not possibly have won.

[Zanza]

Grayling seems to have a long history of staggering incompetence in office. But I would also ot be surprised if this was straight corruption and someone close to party or person has a stake in this venture. 

[Tamas]

Yes it has straight corruption written all over it. This whole preparation budget is a sweet honey pot - nobody actually wants to get to the point where it will be real but the money still has to be spent so the chance of getting busted, or so they thought, was very slim.

[Josquius]

In other news, yesterday someone made a mistake of mentioning brexit and turns out one of my dad's friends is a leaver.
Quite a smart guy or so I thought. Yet he just repeats the same old brainwashing. Project fear, we have to leave or people will turn to the far right, etc...
Facebook servers need bringing down.

[Tamas]

Summary of what to expect next week: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/13/what-does-the-week-ahead-hold-for-the-brexit-debate

Showdown will be between 7-9PM on Tuesday. After that? All bets are off.

[Richard Hakluyt]

When do you get your citizenship Tamas? Before or after the second referendum?

[Tamas]

Who knows 

I can't apply until mid-August

[Josquius]

There's an interesting thought. How many Europeans who previously saw little point have grabbed their voting rights in recent years?

[Richard Hakluyt]

It will also be important to make sure that UK citizens resident in other EU countries get to vote.

[Tamas]

While I would much, much prefer the UK staying in the EU, which I think a second referendum would deliver, I do think that referendum would be very damaging. Putting such a momentous decision on a simple majority referendum was the dumbest political move of this century, and a mockery of what representative democracy is supposed to be. But it was called, and the voters delivered a result, and it was promised Parliament would deliver on it.

After all that to go back and say, "right folks, we can't really make up our mind, plus we suspect you have changed your minds about this whole ordeal, so let's have another go" could possibly be very damaging to democracry in Britain.


At this juncture, May's deal would have been the least damaging alternative but by now too many people have spent too much effort deriding it for how awful it is. But the thing is, apart from leaving in the EU's hand to end the backstop period, said backstop period would deliver the kind of "common market without free movement" arrengement that a lot of people would prefer I think - all the economic pluses without all the unwashed Eastern Europeans and their smelly pickled cabbage.  All the while the Rees-Moggs of the country could work on their future trade deals, and after a few years everyone would realise  that they'd be giving up a whole lot of things for the benefit of a few % less tariffs with the US and India, and uncontrolled immigration from the latter. And the UK would thus quietly become a Norway.

But I think it's too late for that. Tomorrow the vote will fail, May will resign, Article 50 will be postponed to the autumn, there will be new elections, and the new Labour majority will vote on what will be essentiall May's deal.

[garbon]

While I would much, much prefer the UK staying in the EU, which I think a second referendum would deliver, I do think that referendum would be very damaging. Putting such a momentous decision on a simple majority referendum was the dumbest political move of this century, and a mockery of what representative democracy is supposed to be. But it was called, and the voters delivered a result, and it was promised Parliament would deliver on it.

After all that to go back and say, "right folks, we can't really make up our mind, plus we suspect you have changed your minds about this whole ordeal, so let's have another go" could possibly be very damaging to democracry in Britain.

I'm not sure I can entirely agree with that. I mean it isn't usually the case in a democracy that something is voted on and that puts the matter to bed forever. Many times over referrenda or legislation reversing previously held stances can occur.

[Maladict]

While I would much, much prefer the UK staying in the EU, which I think a second referendum would deliver.

I don't think it will. The people who voted Leave will feel betrayed by having a second referendum, and not without reason. They'll vote no again.

Tomorrow the vote will fail, May will resign, Article 50 will be postponed to the autumn,

I'm not sure this can be done unilaterally. The EU has little reason to expect 6 more months to produce more results than the past two years of incompetence has.

[celedhring]

I don't think there would be that big a resistance to extend article 50 a few months. Fwiw our foreign minister is in favor of it, although not indefinitely.

I think the biggest issue against postponement is that in 4 months we are voting for an European Parliament that won't have UK MPs in it. That will be an odd situation if the UK remains a member for a significant period. And if in the interim the UK retains their representation and thus have to hold an European election in May it will be even odder.