Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Including regional and national referendums we've had about 10 referendums in the UK since 1997. I think they're now part of our politics and I don't think people just use them to protest vote (the Lib Dems continue to exist), they know how they work and I think they vote for what they want.

In the brexit vote they definitely protest voted
. Loads of quotes out there from people who voted in this way. I know more than a few who did too.

The interesting thing is that on the big issues like Brexit or Scottish independence turnout shoots up as people who don't engage with the Westminster/Holyrood democracy do turn out in referendums. I don't think that's because they want to stick their fingers up, I think it's because they feel that what they say in a referendum matters in a way that what they say in representative democracy mediated through parties doesn't.

Again though thats a argument for living in a Swiss style system rather than a representative democracy. Which we don't have.

But as you point out. That wasn't the question - that stuff was settled by politicians and elections afterwards. But the remain campaign certainly talked about it.

Yes. So we had a sham referendum to vote for a blank page that the government would fill in however they fancied afterwards.

I'm reading a really interesting book called Ruling the Void at the minute on Western, particularly European politics. The author died in 2011 while writing it so we, sadly, don't have his take on what happened after, though I think he would have not been surprised. I think this comment/attitude is part of the problem.

I have never heard of this book and a google doesn't give much of a summary.
But suffice to say I think what I said is the key problem with the world today. People are forgetting that specialisation is the way the world is meant to work. Everyone thinks they're an expert in everything, that they, a random person in a job that has nothing to do with medicine, are the one who is completely right about vaccines being bad and not 99.99% of trained medical experts.

Norway - it doesn't sit in the Council, it doesn't appoint Commissioners, it doesn't assume the Presidency at any point, it doesn't have MEPs.

Member of not is really fundamental.

All things which are virtually invisible in everyday life.
Norway is in Schengen, the UK wasn't.

But how would that be clear from something like "should we downgrade our relations with the EU" - that is less clear and more carte blanche than leaving. Separately this gets into unicorn/cherry-picking territory. The EU was pretty clear all the way through that they weren't keen on a Swiss-style solution for a variety of reasons. So there's a very real chance you're going to the people with one option that isn't possible politically for the EU to agree.

So then we'd be forced to shift another step or two.
At least however we'd know what the government was aiming for. If you vote for a 3 and get a 4 then...well its a failure to meet exactly what was promised but its pretty close. You can't say they didn't try.
On the other hand if you get a 9....then that's not what you wanted at all.

Separately - re. the Millenium Dome I fully expected a million think pieces to launch on its roof being torn apart in a storm as a metaphor for the end of the long 1990s/the neo-liberal consensus/the Blairite settlement etc. But a columnist's already just tweeted it out

Laura McInerney
@miss_mcinerney
Nooooooo. My beloved Millennium Dome. 😥
Ugh. The last vestige of the optimistic 90s is truly destroyed. What a bleak symbol of our times.
https://metro.co.uk/2022/02/18/sto

Yes. We are living in dark times. Ever since 2016 there's been a sense of malaise that hope was over and it was just a matter of time for the UK. Its firmly a country on the way out. The only hope is it doesn't suffer.

[garbon]

Tyr, why are you such a fan of complicated referrenda?

On a side note, if the ugly as Millenium Dome was a sign of the optimistic 90s in Britain, your stuff has been rough for a long time.

[Josquius]

Tyr, why are you such a fan of complicated referrenda?:

I'm not? My whole point is they shouldn't take place?

[Sheilbh]

On a side note, if the ugly as Millenium Dome was a sign of the optimistic 90s in Britain, your stuff has been rough for a long time.

Peak New Labour glory days


Of course it was an absolute disaster and had to be turned into a concert venue to have any use - and the roof was only meant to last 20 years so I suppose we're just seeing that happen But I was one of the few million who went to the Millenium Dome in 2000 before the exhibitions shut down and it was very weird, but also very of its moment.

Again though thats a argument for living in a Swiss style system rather than a representative democracy. Which we don't have.

I disagree. I don't think we should use referendums for detailed policy questions - I think it's absolutely right to use them for core constitutional questions like in the EU or not, in the union or not, FPTP or PR, devolution or government from Westminster. Politicians should decide the detailed policy stuff but when it comes to deciding which politicians and how we choose them, I think that should go to the people who are governed by those politicians, not the politicians marking their own homework.

But suffice to say I think what I said is the key problem with the world today. People are forgetting that specialisation is the way the world is meant to work. Everyone thinks they're an expert in everything, that they, a random person in a job that has nothing to do with medicine, are the one who is completely right about vaccines being bad and not 99.99% of trained medical experts.

How is this not an argument against democracy in general? And it's not a new one to the world today - it's as old as the idea. Plato attacks democracy because it undermines the expertise required to govern a society. There's always been a pluralist-elitist debate about democracy. And there are the two sides of democracy the government for the people which is constitutional and legal, but also government by the people which is about popular sovereignty. I think the last 30 years has been far too much constitutional/legalist democracy and not enough popular sovereignty - there's been too little politics and a consequence of that is that everything is political. I don't fully buy his argument which is basically around party democracy and the shift in the roles/power of political parties as key but I think it is part of the picture.

Yes. We are living in dark times. Ever since 2016 there's been a sense of malaise that hope was over and it was just a matter of time for the UK. Its firmly a country on the way out. The only hope is it doesn't suffer.

It's worth noting that satisfaction with democracy in Britain is now at its highest level in decades and there's polling on various things about things like whether your country needs to change its system utterly, is it on the brink, does it work etc. The UK has moved from fairly unsatisfied and wanting lots of change, to broadly similar levels as Germany - relatively satisfied with how democracy and the system works.

People like us have maybe gone on the opposite journey, but there's a big chunk of people who haven't done that. Turnout in the Brexit referendum was the highest in 25 years (basically the highest since the 90s decline kicked in - which happened everywhere in Europe) and elections since then have been back to turn out in the high 60s rather than low 60s/high 50s. I think that's a good thing even if I'm not exactly happy with the decisions voters have made.

Basically what you're feeling now is what a large(r) chunk of people felt for the last 25 years.

[garbon]

It also is an outlet mall.

[Josquius]

I disagree. I don't think we should use referendums for detailed policy questions - I think it's absolutely right to use them for core constitutional questions like in the EU or not, in the union or not, FPTP or PR, devolution or government from Westminster. Politicians should decide the detailed policy stuff but when it comes to deciding which politicians and how we choose them, I think that should go to the people who are governed by those politicians, not the politicians marking their own homework.

These issues should be handled in elections just like every other.
To be in the EU or not was not the issue, it was a complete distraction, both in terms of the overall problems in the country and our relations with Europe.

How is this not an argument against democracy in general? And it's not a new one to the world today - it's as old as the idea. Plato attacks democracy because it undermines the expertise required to govern a society. There's always been a pluralist-elitist debate about democracy. And there are the two sides of democracy the government for the people which is constitutional and legal, but also government by the people which is about popular sovereignty. I think the last 30 years has been far too much constitutional/legalist democracy and not enough popular sovereignty - there's been too little politics and a consequence of that is that everything is political. I don't fully buy his argument which is basically around party democracy and the shift in the roles/power of political parties as key but I think it is part of the picture.

Its kind of like computer programming.
Ultimately its all 1s and 0s, on top of that there's machine code which abstracts this to e.g. hex, moving up you've second generation abstractions of assembly language, then things get more and more abstract as you move upwards, the languages get simpler and the level of actual engagement the 'programmer' has with the machine lessens.
This isn't to say someone with a drag and drop builder isn't actually creating something machine readable. Its just they don't have to actually know about the actual 1s and 0s to get the end result they want.

In a working democracy politicians are the programmers, their teams are in the place of the system actually piecing together the 1s and 0s, and members of the public are external stake holders asking for end results.

Following a JTBD framework actual policy decisions such as hard brexit are not end results. They're means to an end.
End results are less crime, higher wages, more jobs, etc... and the decisions used to get towards this can only work as part of a whole rather than taken in isolation.
In having a referendum you're effectively asking the entire company whether the new product should be made in C++ or Java despite only a small number of them having the slightest clue how to make that decision. This should be left to the programmers- with (this is where the analogy breaks) the decision of which programmer to hire being up to everyone.

It's worth noting that satisfaction with democracy in Britain is now at its highest level in decades and there's polling on various things about things like whether your country needs to change its system utterly, is it on the brink, does it work etc. The UK has moved from fairly unsatisfied and wanting lots of change, to broadly similar levels as Germany - relatively satisfied with how democracy and the system works.

People like us have maybe gone on the opposite journey, but there's a big chunk of people who haven't done that. Turnout in the Brexit referendum was the highest in 25 years (basically the highest since the 90s decline kicked in - which happened everywhere in Europe) and elections since then have been back to turn out in the high 60s rather than low 60s/high 50s. I think that's a good thing even if I'm not exactly happy with the decisions voters have made.

Basically what you're feeling now is what a large(r) chunk of people felt for the last 25 years.

Thats not what I've read.
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-51281722

[Sheilbh]

Just on sanctions from a purely UK/politics angle - it looks like Johnson has been outflanked on foreign policy by Labour and Lib Dems ( ), but also facing a lot of criticism that the sanctions he's announced are far too weak by a string of Tory MPs:

Iain Duncan Smith says Russia should be hit "hard" + "now". "They need to feel the pain"

Crispin Blunt: Putin "has already committed the crimes that deserve the most severest punishment from the free world"
Tory MP John Baron notes the "strong cross-party support for tougher sanctions now, because that is what is needed".

Tory MP Peter Bone: "I think both sides of the House were expecting stronger sanctions to be announced today."

He's looking very weak and defensive as the mood of the house seems to be for stronger sanctions, more defence spending and stronger action on Russian money in the City. I get positioning this as a first "tranche" but I wouldn't be surprised if they get pushed back more.

Edit: Totally separate but really interested in this chart on where the public perceives themselves v all the parties on covid. Basically the Tories are the only ones perceived to be out of line with public opinion - although even then not wildly so and not as polarised as I think has happened in some other countries like the US:

[Sheilbh]

Yep. Apparently government's been taken aback at the scale of cross-party anger over how tepid their announced sanctions are and are working on a new package now. This is separate from tranches/incrementally increasing sanctions for new Russian actors and an entirely predictable fuck-up

[mongers]

Yep. Apparently government's been taken aback at the scale of cross-party anger over how tepid their announced sanctions are and are working on a new package now. This is separate from tranches/incrementally increasing sanctions for new Russian actors and an entirely predictable fuck-up

How could they have read the situation so badly and amongst MPs, a small group of people they have daily contact with?

[Sheilbh]

How could they have read the situation so badly and amongst MPs, a small group of people they have daily contact with?

Over-promising and not adequately delivering is perhaps a recurring theme in this premiership

[mongers]

How could they have read the situation so badly and amongst MPs, a small group of people they have daily contact with?

Over-promising and not adequately delivering is perhaps a recurring theme in this premiership

That's the story of my life.

[Jacob]

That's the story of my life.

You should for leadership of the Tories once Boris gets the knife.

[mongers]

That's the story of my life.

You should for leadership of the Tories once Boris gets the knife.

And lead them to electoral disaster, yes I could get behind that. 

[Sheilbh]

And lead them to electoral disaster, yes I could get behind that. 

I feel like there's an Ealing film where you accidentally provoke a wave of support and win a landslide

[The Larch]

The Producers, but in a political campaign?