Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[OttoVonBismarck]

It seems like a decent number of the concessions rely on technology to sort of maintaining the EU's interests but smooth the procedural side of it, which is a good thing. I actually think some issues around customs (not just here, but globally) are getting easier all the time due to newer logistics / tracking etc technology on products.

[Tamas]

Frost today did not sound like he was getting ready to declare victory on those terms offered, quite the contrary.

[Tamas]

For me, most importantly, the British complaint over the role of the ECJ, pulled out of a hat suddenly as the EU signalled they were giving way on British sausages, indicate that there is little to no desire for a compromise from the British government.

[Sheilbh]

For me, most importantly, the British complaint over the role of the ECJ, pulled out of a hat suddenly as the EU signalled they were giving way on British sausages, indicate that there is little to no desire for a compromise from the British government.

I'm not so sure - it was flagged a few months ago that he'd raise it.

And the point isn't accurate. It says the CJEU polices the protocol which isn't right - the CJEU's role is on matters of European law that apply in Northern Ireland. What's more there are two easy solutions the EU has agreed or proposed in other contexts. One is international arbitration on the operation of the protocol - with reference to the CJEU on matters of European law  - the other flagged by Anton Spisak is the EU proposal to Switzerland of arbitration by default but if clearly an issue of European law then it goes to the CJEU.

Neither of those solutions materially change anything about the CJEU's role - the substance is exactly the same: on matters of EU law it goes to the CJEU. It would just fiddle the formalities around it. Both of those solutions are things the EU has accepted or proposed elsewhere and I think they'd probably meet Frost's objection to the CJEU's role (which doesn't exist) in policing the protocol.

I could be totally wrong - but I just think if I wanted to scupper the protocol entirely I would have chosen something more difficult to resolve than sausages and an objection to the CJEU that the EU has two off the shelf solutions to.

Frost didn't - contrary to expectations - set out why Article 16 should be triggered or anything like that. My suspicion is Frost will huff and puff and make heavy work of it (not helpful given the need to convince in Northern Ireland, though the UK government's word is mud there), but Johnson will overrule him to dramatically declare a deal/victory in the sausage war (literally - there were headlines to that effect last week) and some bluster about how it removes the jurisdiction of the CJEU so it just covers minutiae like defining European law (as it already does). And I suspect he'll do it (again) regardless of unionist opinion.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Johnson will be desperate to say "build back bangers" apart from anything else 

[Sheilbh]

Johnson will be desperate to say "build back bangers" apart from anything else 

Oh God - I hadn't even thought of that but I think you're absolutely right

Anyway I expect the next round of disputes with an EU member will be France. I think it's twice now their Europe Minister has threatened to cut power supplies (needless to say that isn't a remedy in the TCA) and I've seen several comments from him about the failings/issues of Barnier's deal. Barnier is, of course, a no hope Presidential candidate but I get the feeling Macron's leaving nothing to chance. Plus France is the only country in Europe (including the UK) that thinks the UK did better out of the Brexit deal than the EU and the French far-right is more ambivalent about Brexit than most European politics. Then there's Aukus So I think for the next 12-8 months there'll be a fair amount of fights over fishing, energy and basically anything with the French who, I imagine, will try to Europeanise that.

Separately a decade of austerity visualised - I would suggest, tentatively, that a really good start to levelling up would be to massively increase spending on Transport and MHCLG (now LUHC):

Yet again I'm reminded why I hate Osborne so much

[celedhring]

Killing that alpaca surely must have been expensive.

[Josquius]

As I have been saying for the past, what, 20 years? Yes. Transport spending is the key to fixing the country.

Nice graphs. Really illustrate the tories tricks when they claim to have increased spending; they're merely I doing a little of their cuts.

[Tamas]

ex-PM Cummings state the blindingly obvious:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/13/dominic-cummings-says-uk-always-intended-to-ditch-ni-protocol-brexit

The UK government always intended to "ditch" the Northern Ireland protocol, Boris Johnson's former adviser Dominic Cummings has claimed.

In a string of tweets, Cummings said the flawed Brexit deal had been a way to get out of the electoral doldrums and "whack [Jeremy] Corbyn", and "of course" the government should be allowed to "sometimes break deals... like every other state does".


His remarks have caused alarm in Dublin, where the former taoiseach Leo Varadkar, who negotiated the Northern Ireland protocol with Johnson at a meeting in Wirral in October 2019, said that, if true, they showed the government could not be trusted.

Having said that though, their backstabbing scum approach is being proven right by the EU who bend over backwards to make sure the UK is not inconvenienced by their own shortsighted stupidity.

[The Brain]

Yeah. The EU appears less and less to be fit for purpose.

[Sheilbh]

ex-PM Cummings state the blindingly obvious:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/13/dominic-cummings-says-uk-always-intended-to-ditch-ni-protocol-brexit

"The reason for your fascination with this self-declared unrecognised genius former PM Cummings continues to elude me"

Interesting-ish tweets with some back and forth. Although I'd note the "we" in this sounds like Cummings and the Vote Leave advisers (like Lee Cain) managing Johnson (the "fkd shopping trolley"):

Dominic Cummings
@Dominic2306
We took over a party on ~10%, worst constitutional crisis in century, much of deep state angling for BINO or 2REF. So we wriggled thro with best option we cd & intended to get the shopping trolley to ditch bits we didn't like after whacking Corbyn. We prioritised. Now time for IM2 #Frosty
For all the cant about international law, a/ states break it every week, b/ the idea it's the epitome of morality is low grade student politics pushed by lawyers/officials to constrain politics they oppose. Govt shd focus on solving problems & chill viz "i/n law" viz NI #IMBill2
Shd we generally stick to deals? Of course. Sometimes break them? Of course. Just like the EU, US, China and every other state does. International diplomacy cannot be judged by the standards of a student duel, and lawyers are hired help not the masters
For all those whining, you try solving a once-a-century constit crisis starting on 10% in polls with totally fkd negotiating situation, SW1 hysterical, joke Cabinet, mutinous GLS & a fkd shopping trolley for PM who only understood even vaguely WTF the Customs Union was in 11/20 - not easy!
No what Ive said does NOT mean 'the PM was  lying in GE2019', he never had a scoobydoo what the deal he signed meant. He never understood what leaving Customs Union meant until 11/20. In 1/20 he was babbling 'Id never have signed it if Id understood it' (but that WAS a lie)
We had clear goals & prioritised. Our priorities meant e.g getting Brexit done is 10000x more important than lawyers yapping re international law in negotiations with people who break i/n law all the time. EU membership infantilised SW1 as yapping re 'i/n law' clearly shows
1 of many great ironies re elite Remain's hysterical mental breakdown is - *I* suggested 2REFs in 2015 & *they*, assuming theyd win, said 'no way Cummings, no tricks, just ONE & it's for keeps'. Then after all the 'serious people' totally blew it 'err rematch please'
Elite Remain are 100% sure Brexit = the risky option. I think Remain = the risky option & getting riskier as €zone stagnates/fails. VL failed to communicate this & what to do after Brexit cos of ERG clowns disrupting campaign. This difference partly why so much misunderstanding now

Tom Peck
@tompeck
The vote was five and a half years ago now, which is longer than democracies are ordinarily given to be asked again about something. Have you got a date in mind when this 'risk' of remaining expires? Otherwise it's completely unfalsifiable and therefore meaningless.

Alan Beattie
@alanbeattie
I'm no great fan of the way the eurozone was constructed (though is getting better with joint debt issuance) but hard to see how it's stagnating/failing relative to UK. UK likely to catch up a bit this year but still hardly impressive.

The Columnist
@Sime0nStylites
It's all very well to prioritize but (i) the prioritisation might not be correct (and, if correct, for who?) (ii) the current mark to market doesn't look great. Re (ii) it's worth asking why...a view...the prioritisation failed to understand the deep complexity of the situation.
Or putting it slightly differently, the prioritisation caused huge instability to a very complex and very fragile system. Now. All bets are off re what happens next.
That doesn't mean to say that Brexit was inherently more risky. I don't think it necessarily was. But I do think the manner of it had made it a much more risky (short to medium term) proposition to no Brexit.

Alan Beattie
@alanbeattie
I think you've got to have a very pessimistic view of the future of the EU & specific way in which it would have affected the UK *plus* huge optimism about the Brexit gains (& no, a 6-week advantage on vaccine procurement isn't it) to regard any form of it as anything but risky.

Dominic Cummings
@Dominic2306
A reasonable point of view I disagree with. Im writing something re this Q of risk/longterm cos it's crucial & farce REF ignored almost all important issues. For me the 1930s looms v large & swerving anything like it a big motive, even at some short-term cost

The Columnist
@Sime0nStylites
Oh and I've yet another point...I think your historical comparison is off by twenty years - I prefer 1900-1915.

Aside from everything else - I've said it before but it is very weird having Cummings as the first big government adviser who is very online (he used to be a blogger for fucks sake). John McTernan and Alastair Campbell from Blair's time have become big Twitter people but they're generally commenting about politics now. It is novel to have someone who was in government until a year ago tweeting their takes and, apparently, their strategy at the time plus engaging with the commenters. It's the type of thing you would expect to see in the inevitable memoir of the Brexit years (of which there will be many ) rather than Twitter.

See also Cummings posting WhatsApp's and emails from the pandemic.

Having said that though, their backstabbing scum approach is being proven right by the EU who bend over backwards to make sure the UK is not inconvenienced by their own shortsighted stupidity.

They're the British government that is in office so it's who the EU have to deal with. But there were and are genuine issues in Northern Ireland which needed to be dealt with. I think Barnier got Northern Ireland very wrong. From excerpts of his books I think he clearly didn't get on with or really undertand (or try to understand) unionist views. I think Sefcovic understands Northern Ireland a lot better, has engaged really well with various stakeholders (including getting gratuitously insulted by unionist MLAs when he's at Stormont) and is hopefully fixing that.

As I say I think the key figure now for me is Doug Beattie and the UUP - they're still in wait and see mode and want to look at the text from the EU.

[mongers]

The continuing HGV crisis:

The Port of Felixstowe, which handles 36% of the UK's freight container traffic, told the BBC that it currently has 50,000 containers which are waiting to be collected, due to a shortage of HGV lorry drivers.

If laid end to end that's over 1 million feet of containers, though given the large majority will be 40ft TEU's (twins) you could double that.

If loaded onto HGV lorries it would create a traffic jam at least 380* miles long.


*making no allowance for the tractor units/cabs or a couple of feet of road between each lorry.

[Tamas]

The continuing HGV crisis:

The Port of Felixstowe, which handles 36% of the UK's freight container traffic, told the BBC that it currently has 50,000 containers which are waiting to be collected, due to a shortage of HGV lorry drivers.

If laid end to end that's over 1 million feet of containers, though given the large majority will be 40ft TEU's (twins) you could double that.

If loaded onto HGV lorries it would create a traffic jam at least 380* miles long.


*making no allowance for the tractor units/cabs or a couple of feet of road between each lorry.

Which is why we'll probably see no resolution to the NI issues - that's a far more convenient distraction than the electorate only having the supply issues to talk about.

[Sheilbh]

Which is why we'll probably see no resolution to the NI issues - that's a far more convenient distraction than the electorate only having the supply issues to talk about.

Because there's nothing the people of Nuneaton talk about more than Northern Irish issues. If the last five years teach us nothing else it's that there's no issue the people of Britain care about or closely follow more than Northern Ireland

I've said it before but more people in GB think there should be a border poll than not and over half say it wouldn't bother them one way or the other if Northern Ireland chose to stay or unite with Ireland. I mean I've met people who didn't even know Northern Ireland was part of the UK. I mean I wish people cared but I've seen no indication of it.

On HGVs - I'd popssibly carve out ports from the wider internal HGV shortage in the UK just because this is something other countries are experiencing. I read a really good piece on the Washington Post about this particularly around the Port of LA. They have unprecedented numbers of cargo ships waiting to dock because there's a huge bottleneck in unloading - so there's now 40-75 cargo ships lining up waiting at any given time. There's issues with distribution by road but also by rail so it said that key cargo distribution centres on the railways were for the first time ever closing down for periods to new containers because they have such huge backlogs to clear.

Part of that is domestic - underinvestment in port infrastructure, industry not working together - but part of it, which I think is global, is that people stopped spending money going out but ordered lots of products during the pandemic and that is still, apparently, happening at very high levels and now the wider economy is re-opening and (in the US) expanding rapidly there's huge demand and bottlenecks like ports are really struggling. So I read that the cost of shipping from Asia to Europe has increased by $14,000 (and there's a Brexit cost for the UK where it's $16,000 now).

And I've no idea what's going to happen when the slumps in production from Chinese power rationing hits that global supply chain with this massive pent-up demand. There's going to be a huge mismatch at some point - which is driving the other factor that apparently companies (this was from the US article) have been trying to stock up all summer and still are because they anticipate more issues in the near future

Combined with the energy crisis (which I suspect for Europe may last 2-3 years - really good piece on this in the FT) there's some big issues in the global economy that are not going to be quickly or easily resolved and will have a real impact on growth and individuals.

[Richard Hakluyt]

They can distract as much as they want (and NI is not a great distraction), but if there are shortages at Christmas it will probably be Johnson's poll tax moment.