Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[The Minsky Moment]

The solution to climate change in this century will be patient work ...

There won't be a solution to climate change in this century, we blew our chance for that.  It's now a matter of damage control and mitigation.

We don't lack solid science or policy options.  We do seem to lack is political will and sufficient popular pressure to generate meaningful and decisive action in the political sphere.  If Greta Thunberg is succeeding in mobilizing public opinion, I'm for that.

[Syt]

Let's face it, any grassroots movement has much better chances to persist if there's a public face or figure of identification to attach to. In this case Greta was the one who was at the right place at the right time (or wrong place at the wrong time, depending on how you look at it) to fall into that position.

[Syt]

Personally, I think historians in 40, 50 years will look at the period 1990-2030 or so, and shake their heads how we got caught up for decades on unimportant little things instead of tackling the key topics that ensure maintaining a livable environment.

[Malthus]

and all that effort would amount to nothing if wee keep increasing our GHG emissions from all sources.  Carbon capture has its limit.  Nuclear is a great source of power for now, but lots of people have fears, and it won't be easy to have them accept a nuclear plant in their backyard.

I be;ieve that it is far too late to count on nuclear to provide anything more than a tiny fillip of power human civilization will need in the next critical thirty years or so.  It just takes too long to deploy.

The key to stopping catastrophic change will be the education of the average joes and janes in India, Burma, Zaire, etc that they need to change their plans to emulate the current first-world way of getting to the first world into a new way that is less environmentally damaging but still allows them to have hope that their children will have increased opportunity.

There is some actual good news on that score.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/experts-cautiously-welcome-pm-modis-pledge-to-double-renewable-energy-target/article29493015.ece

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-can-renewable-energy-power-the-world/

The point: renewable energy sources are increasingly inexpensive, countries such as India are indeed alert to climate change (as they will be hard hit by it), and they are doing things about it - the relative cheapness of the renewables technology is giving them the ability to actually carry out these plans. Hopefully.

While this is good, of course it is only mitigation. We will see problems. The issue is how severe they will be and whether we will actually carry out mitigation. A situation not helped by the head in the sand attitude of certain of our leaders. 

[The Larch]

and all that effort would amount to nothing if wee keep increasing our GHG emissions from all sources.  Carbon capture has its limit.  Nuclear is a great source of power for now, but lots of people have fears, and it won't be easy to have them accept a nuclear plant in their backyard.

I be;ieve that it is far too late to count on nuclear to provide anything more than a tiny fillip of power human civilization will need in the next critical thirty years or so.  It just takes too long to deploy.

The key to stopping catastrophic change will be the education of the average joes and janes in India, Burma, Zaire, etc that they need to change their plans to emulate the current first-world way of getting to the first world into a new way that is less environmentally damaging but still allows them to have hope that their children will have increased opportunity.

There is some actual good news on that score.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/experts-cautiously-welcome-pm-modis-pledge-to-double-renewable-energy-target/article29493015.ece

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-can-renewable-energy-power-the-world/

The point: renewable energy sources are increasingly inexpensive, countries such as India are indeed alert to climate change (as they will be hard hit by it), and they are doing things about it - the relative cheapness of the renewables technology is giving them the ability to actually carry out these plans. Hopefully.

While this is good, of course it is only mitigation. We will see problems. The issue is how severe they will be and whether we will actually carry out mitigation. A situation not helped by the head in the sand attitude of certain of our leaders.

The main investor worldwide in renewable energies in the last 5 years or so has been China.

[Valmy]

The main investor worldwide in renewable energies in the last 5 years or so has been China.

Yep, they have been doing vital work despite what Mono would have you believe.

[crazy canuck]

The main investor worldwide in renewable energies in the last 5 years or so has been China.

Yep, they have been doing vital work despite what Mono would have you believe.

At home but abroad they are building record numbers of coal electric plants

[Valmy]

The main investor worldwide in renewable energies in the last 5 years or so has been China.

Yep, they have been doing vital work despite what Mono would have you believe.

At home but abroad they are building record numbers of coal electric plants

Both of those things are true.

[crazy canuck]

For the don't worry everything will work out in time crowd, the IPCC report on oceans summary.  Read it and please stop suggesting we have time.

Also stop supporting politicians that are ignoring this.  Looking at you BB, since you are going to be the first of that group to vote.

https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/3/2019/09/SROCC_SPM_HeadlineStatements.pdf

[Admiral Yi]

The main investor worldwide in renewable energies in the last 5 years or so has been China.

They also burn half the world's coal.

[The Larch]

The main investor worldwide in renewable energies in the last 5 years or so has been China.

They also burn half the world's coal.

And promote coal energy relentlessly abroad through the belt & road thingie. I didn't meant to say they were paragons of sustainability, only that they've been a huge actor in renewables lately.

[Valmy]

China has been a big factor in why renewables are so cheap and effective now, but yeah it is not true that we should all be praising Beijing for saving the day.

The day is far from being saved.

[Sheilbh]

I'm not too comfortable with the lionisation of this girl, it could well damage her badly further down the road. However, she is diagnosed as autistic and hence the lack of nuance in her approach to climate change. That is the best thing though, the lack of nuance, she is correct and unless we go all out to prevent climate change we are buggered.

Yep. And I actually like that her scorn is for all the left-wing and liberal leaders who have spent many years "acting" on climate change.

She's said there's no point talking to Trump. Her message is for (and about) the Macrons and Trudeaus of the world.

[Valmy]

I mean Macron tried to take a firm stand on that topic and had everybody putting on yellow vests. France is over 90% on using low or no emission energy. Kind of a weird target to pick out on that point.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm not too comfortable with the lionisation of this girl, it could well damage her badly further down the road. However, she is diagnosed as autistic and hence the lack of nuance in her approach to climate change. That is the best thing though, the lack of nuance, she is correct and unless we go all out to prevent climate change we are buggered.

Yep. And I actually like that her scorn is for all the left-wing and liberal leaders who have spent many years "acting" on climate change.

She's said there's no point talking to Trump. Her message is for (and about) the Macrons and Trudeaus of the world.

It is important to remember that emissions are still going up. That, and the time lag between increased CO2 levels and the new equilibrium, mean that things are going to very bad as we move forward.

But don't worry, we have recyclable drinking straws