Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The Ukraine is losing the war in the east, and once Russia captures the Donbas, I believe there will be pressure on Zelynskyy to make a deal. As was said, in previous posts, Ukraine cannot carry this on for much longer. Question is is Z. getting good advice from the USA, who may want the war to go as long as possible because of the financial cost to Russia.

France kept this up for 4 years during ww1... industry heavy and resource rich regions occupied and around 600 to 700 dead a day on average for years on end.

[Josquius]

During WW1 there wasn't the constant risk of a supermarket hundreds of miles from the front suddenly blowing up.

Though I can't see it happening. Ukraine will keep fighting as long as the western support is there, time is on their side with this provision.

[Threviel]

Well, second world war Germany then. Constant risk of death for everyone and huge casualties for years on end.

What the world wars showed was that in a total war for national survival the people can generally stand a lot of shit. Just look at the Wehrmacht in '45, they fought like hell to save the civilians from the Soviets.

Bucha showed with extreme clarity what the cost of losing the war is and it would be worth almost everything to not let that happen to my family.

[The Larch]

Well Russia's "wrath of god" has been pretty feeble so far.

They promised all kinds of hell for Finland and Sweden applying to NATO. It's been pretty light so far.

Fiery rhetoric is something Russia has never been short of during this war.

I read somewhere that at this moment is when the more modern Western supplied artillery units are being deployed to the front and they're being really effective, and are being used mostly against Russian logistical capabilities, so a steady supply of new shells and rockets will be necessary to mantain their effectiveness.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And there's  been a blackout regarding cherson for the past week too so something is brewing.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally on Western support and who can last I think this intervention is important:

Marcel Dirsus
@marceldirsus
The Minister President of Saxony and Deputy Leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) says Germany's basis of prosperity will collapse without gas from Russia. He's calling for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations with Putin.

It isn't even winter yet when the effect of Russian sanctions and Russia likely cutting gas supplies to Europe will be really felt. It's also when the impact of Western sanctions will be really hitting Russia. I think it's right to worry about Trump in 2024 but I think the big moment when there might be pressure for a shift in policy and approach is going to be this autumn/winter and we need to prepare for that. I suspect it'll be ultimately an endurance contest about whether the West can keep going while they re-orient their economies/energy policy.

And I'm not sure if there's more Europe or other allies can do to help countries that are particularly vulnerable to this - I know gas reserves are filling up slowly at this point in Europe.

[crazy canuck]

The Ukraine is losing the war in the east, and once Russia captures the Donbas, I believe there will be pressure on Zelynskyy to make a deal. As was said, in previous posts, Ukraine cannot carry this on for much longer. Question is is Z. getting good advice from the USA, who may want the war to go as long as possible because of the financial cost to Russia.

France kept this up for 4 years during ww1... industry heavy and resource rich regions occupied and around 600 to 700 dead a day on average for years on end.

France and perhaps a few other nations who were also involved in the war.  That's why its got the "WW" in the name 

[The Minsky Moment]

Incidentally on Western support and who can last I think this intervention is important:

Marcel Dirsus
@marceldirsus
The Minister President of Saxony and Deputy Leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) says Germany's basis of prosperity will collapse without gas from Russia. He's calling for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations with Putin.

It isn't even winter yet when the effect of Russian sanctions and Russia likely cutting gas supplies to Europe will be really felt. It's also when the impact of Western sanctions will be really hitting Russia. I think it's right to worry about Trump in 2024 but I think the big moment when there might be pressure for a shift in policy and approach is going to be this autumn/winter and we need to prepare for that. I suspect it'll be ultimately an endurance contest about whether the West can keep going while they re-orient their economies/energy policy.

And I'm not sure if there's more Europe or other allies can do to help countries that are particularly vulnerable to this - I know gas reserves are filling up slowly at this point in Europe.

Kretschmer has been a notorious apologist for Putin going back years; this is just par for the course with him.  He is part of the problem; namely, why Germany finds itself in such a dangerous position of reliance on Russia.

[The Larch]

I'm tempted to say CDU gonna CDU...

[Sheilbh]

I'm tempted to say CDU gonna CDU...

Although the SPD have similar issues. I get MM's point but I think this is going to be an issue - especially by autumn/winter. It's going to really test the endurance of European voters because it will hit growth and also their own lives. I think leaders like Habeck are doing a good job in preparing the ground for that, but I think it's going to be a big challenge.

[Jacob]

So apparently Kazakhstan is telling Russia to fuck off. That's kind of cool. Hope it doesn't backfire too much on them.

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1545423984270999556

[Barrister]

There's been an interesting dynamic at work going on between Russia and Kazakhstan.

It of course didn't go without notice in Kazakhstan all the Russian talking points about historic Russia territory, and the invasion of Ukraine.  There was a joint meeting between Putin and Kazakh president Tokayev where Tokayev pointedly did not endorse the invasion.  Kazakhstan has stated it will not recognize the DPR/LPR.

Russia has now retaliated by shutting down a key oil pipeline for Kazakhstan's oil exports.

This is all complicated because in the midst of huge protests against Tokayev's regime Russian troops entered the country to help quell the unrest.  So it's unclear how much popular authority the current government has.

But still - just more evidence of the unintended consequences of Putin's invasion.


Edit: huh - ninja'd by Jacob.

[Barrister]

https://www.noscommunes.ca/Members/fr

I just emailed my MP to urge her not to give in to those demands from Germany.

Canadians, if you have a minute, please do the same.

Apparently Canada is going to hand over the turbine.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1545464020672679936

[DGuller]

I think Kazakhstan is not completely dependent on Russia like Belarus is.  I would think that they can play China against Russia.  China and Russia may be allies, but a cynically pragmatic country like China would not give up on the opportunity to create an oil-producing client state.

[Zoupa]

https://www.noscommunes.ca/Members/fr

I just emailed my MP to urge her not to give in to those demands from Germany.

Canadians, if you have a minute, please do the same.

Apparently Canada is going to hand over the turbine.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1545464020672679936

Canadian exports to Germany were worth $6.9 billion in 2021 while Canada's imports from Germany were $19.0 billion.

Canadian exports to Ukraine were worth $174 million in 2021 while Canada's imports from Ukraine were $181 million.

Write your MPs folks, else money talks.