In wake of teen deaths, Israel vows to crush Hamas

[grumbler]

Agreed, but not applicable.  The Hamas rockets have hit things and killed people.  The Israelis are not required to play tit-for-tat.  They have a right to self-defense, within reason.  If the hostage takers only kill bystanders at a rate of one per six hours, that doesn't mean the police have to conclude that this rate is tolerable.

Exactly, they have a right to self defense within reason.

The effectiveness of the rocket attacks is nearly zero. The odds of a rocket killing or injuring someone are about as likely as the spear chucker killing a SWAT team member. Possible, but damn unlikely.[/quote]

I am afraid that i cannot accept your word for how effective rockets would be in the absence of counterfire.   In the presence of counterfire, the odds are low, I will grant you that. But, again, that doesn't mean that the Israeli's are obliged to find out how effective they are in the absence of counterfire.

I think overall Israel has done a reasonable job, most of the time. If the reports that they've killed some 300 people and injured 1300 in air strikes, almost all of which are civlians, then I think that is not reasonable, given the threat posed by the rockets...which is, as Malthus data shows, about as dangerous (odds wise) as being hit by lightning in your lifetime.

You are, of course, entitled to your opinion.  But that's what it is:  an opinion, and you haven't articulated any good reasons for it other than that you think it is "reasonable" and contrary opinions unreasonable.

[crazy canuck]

Berkut,

I think it is unreasonable to expect that Isreal should not respond to attacks unless and until the enemy is able to mount a lethal strike.  Surely one of the objectives of a defence force is to prevent its citizens from being attacked with lethal force.  Your position seems to rest on the dubious assumption that the Israeli countermeasures are being carried out for some other purpose.  That is a serious allegation to make in the absence of any evidence. 

[Berkut]

I am afraid that i cannot accept your word for how effective rockets would be in the absence of counterfire.   In the presence of counterfire, the odds are low, I will grant you that. But, again, that doesn't mean that the Israeli's are obliged to find out how effective they are in the absence of counterfire.

Obliged? I don't suppose they are "obliged" to, but that doesn't mean I think it is reasonable that they kill hundreds with counterfire because not doing so *might* result in something more than almost nothing, nor do I have to accept that those who are ok with hundreds dieing have any empathy for those dieing by the hundreds.

And again, the issue is not NO counterfire, it is more restrained counter fire.

Like maybe they didn't really have to drop a couple bombs on a beach today, killing 4 little kids.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/17/world/middleeast/gaza-strip-beach-explosion-kills-children.html

Alon Ben-David, a well-sourced Israeli military affairs analyst, said on Israeli television that the first beach blast targeted a structure that Israel believed was used by Hamas. He said the second blast might have been aimed at the running children, perhaps mistaken for militants. He added that given the military's technologically advanced surveillance equipment, "it is a little hard for me to understand this, because the images show that the figures are children."

Now I don't look at a story like that and think that Israel is trying to blow away little kids - I am sure they hate it as much or more than any of us. But I do think that when you operate at a certain tempo, there is going to be accidents like this, and they are going to continue. Is that tempo really necessary? So far Hamas has fired over 1000 rockets since the 8th, and there has been one Israeli fatality as a result.

I don't find it credible to presume that given a current 0.1% success rate given current counterfire tempo, that that success rate is going to increase enough if they scale back their pre-emotive attacks on "suspected" positions to outweigh the very high current rate of civilian casualties we are seeing.

BTW, in regards to the actual numbers, the UN is saying there has been more than 150 civilian deaths, 40 of which have been children. So apparently the numbers aren't that far off, if they are off at all.

More than 150 civilians, including more than 40 children, have been killed in Israel's air assaults in Gaza to curb militant rocket fire. Civilians make up about 75 percent of the Palestinian deaths, according to a running count by the United Nations.

[Berkut]

Berkut,

I think it is unreasonable to expect that Isreal should not respond to attacks unless and until the enemy is able to mount a lethal strike.

That would certainly be very unreasonable.

But we aren't talking about "not responding" we are talking about responding by massive airstrikes into urban areas that result in mostly killing civilians, and not stopping rocket attacks anyway.

Surely one of the objectives of a defence force is to prevent its citizens from being attacked with lethal force.  Your position seems to rest on the dubious assumption that the Israeli countermeasures are being carried out for some other purpose.

My position is that *these* particular Israeli counter measures don't seem to be working to stop rocket attacks, result in massive collateral damage, and I don't think the Israelis, in this case, have come down on the right side of the "reasonable" response line.

  That is a serious allegation to make in the absence of any evidence. 

It seems odd to me that the person calling for restraint and consideration for the lives of civilians is the one being asked to provide all the evidence for their position. But those advocating for a policy that has resulted in some large number of dead civilians insist that we should simply presume that it is necessary, despite a complete lack of evidence that the rocket attacks are effective.

[Sheilbh]

Israel certainly is not carpet bombing Gaza.

However, their bombing of Gaza that is ongoing does seem well out of proportion to the threat posed by the rocket attacks.

I'd rephrase that, but I don't know how. I think Israel's response in general is disproportionate to the gains they can expect.

For example there was the four children on the beach in front of the journalists' hotel who Israel killed. The Israeli defence is that they thought they were straggling fighters. My view is that the action that if they weren't sure and couldn't identify them, then the action that killed them was disproportionate. The risk, given that they only thought they were stragglers, that they were actually children or elderly men, or just innocent men, in my view was too high.

Similarly when they bombed the care home for the disabled. I literally cannot think of a high value enough target to justify the optics of actually bombing a care home, far less the actual suffering caused.

But I don't think the Israeli escalation is driven by a military response or need. I think it's political. Parts of Bibi's cabinet support re-occupying Gaza, from day one parts of his cabinet have been publicly saying that should be the politics and other ministers have openly criticised his policy (some of whom have been fired). I think the reason Israel's moving in now is because while Bibi maybe Obama-ish and love drones, bombs and special forces, a larger part of his coalition wants more full-scale military action and he's had to bend.

Especially after the Egyptians embarrassed themselves (incidentally, a question, raised by this conflict: what is the point of Egypt now?) and the Turks disqualified themselves with the ceasefire talks.

[Sheilbh]

I tend to side with the Berkut side of the debate in the sense that the Israeli offensive really is pointless and why heap even more suffering on this population for no end.  But really there is no good policy here.  Hamas' strategy revolves around  getting the people they are supposed to protect killed in the most media-attracting gruesome way possible, and one way or another they are going to get that job done.

I agree.

I'd add that Israel also has an interest in keeping Hamas going in some way because they do provide a structure and a reasonable level of order in Gaza most of the time, I mean Hamas have largely been trying to stop rockets launching into Israel since 2012. If Hamas were destroyed there'd be a civil war with, probably, far more severe consequences for Israel. They're radical in comparison to Fatah and Abbas, but the truth is that in Gaza there's Islamic Jihad, numerous al-Qaeda affiliates and probably soon there'll be a few ISIS affiliates.

I think Bibi, though perhaps not his cabinet, want to balance stopping Hamas's rocket capability with maintaining them in some way as the force in charge of Gaza as, short of Fatah, they're the best option.

[Valmy]

I think Bibi, though perhaps not his cabinet, want to balance stopping Hamas's rocket capability with maintaining them in some way as the force in charge of Gaza as, short of Fatah, they're the best option.

Hamas is an organization whose entire raison d'etre is struggle with Israel, they are incapable of ever coming to a deal with Israel.  And, frankly, vice versa.  Fatah is a non-entity.  They are corrupt and have no legitimacy.  I guess there could conceivably be a worse organizations running the Palestinians but it is hard for me to conceive what they might look like.  I mean sure there could be ISIS but what would they do besides get killed by the Israelis?

[Sheilbh]

Hamas is an organization whose entire raison d'etre is struggle with Israel, they are incapable of ever coming to a deal with Israel.  And, frankly, vice versa.  Fatah is a non-entity.  They are corrupt and have no legitimacy.  I guess there could conceivably be a worse organizations running the Palestinians but it is hard for me to conceive what they might look like.  I mean sure there could be ISIS but what would they do besides get killed by the Israelis?

I think saying Hamas is an organisation is putting a bit strongly. They're several organisations in a not very coherent or often terribly clear structure. Which is part of the problem. At the minute it looks like the military wing within Gaza are in the driving seat. Of course the other fact is that things change whether it's the PLO, the IRA (in various incarnations), Menachem Begin or Ariel Sharon, situations drive people and organisations to seek unthinkable settlements with alarming regularity.

Fatah isn't strong in Gaza. But let's remember that there was an election, which Hamas won, and Fatah tried to seize control in Gaza. But they run the West Bank. So it's a bit mad to say they're a non-entity. They're as much of an entity as Hamas, despite not getting attention through violence.

However my point isn't that Israel and Hamas can negotiate a peace. All I'm saying is the best situation for Israel would be if Fatah were in control of Gaza. After that I think the best situation is that Hamas is in charge - yes, there are circumstances like now, but they have been stopping other groups from attacking Israel since 2012 and they have reached deals on peripheral issues - I think the dirty secret of both sides is that they can kind of live with each other, doing the same old things. I mean since Hamas took over in 2007 this is only the second big conflict. Most of the time they're able to talk through back channels and pull back.

I don't think any of that's a given in a situation of Gazan anarchy with it inevitably becoming the most important site for international jihadis.

I could be wrong but my suspicion is that the part of the Israeli government (including Bibi) that doesn't want to reoccupy Gaza doesn't want to crush Hamas. They want to, as far as possible, remove their rocket capability but not destroy them.

[Fireblade]

Do you guys think that Israel is secretly controlled by the Jews?

[Josephus]

Didn't know Calgary had Jews.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi1IqwKFAxA&feature=share

[Syt]

11,000 people at yesterday's protests according to police (organizers say 30,000). The whole thing was peaceful, though a few people collapsed, with temperatures going up to the mid-30s, and a lot of the participants observing the Ramadan fasting during the day.

The organizers say they're not antisemites but pro-human, calling for an end to the slaughter of thousands of innocents in Gaza.

[Syt]

Meanwhile, in Paris:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/19/us-palestinians-israel-france-idUSKBN0FO0OY20140719

Pro-Palestinian protesters clash with police in Paris

(Reuters) - Pro-Palestinian protesters clashed with police in Paris on Saturday as they defied a ban on a planned rally against violence in the Gaza strip.

A Reuters photographer said demonstrators in northern Paris launched projectiles at riot police, who responded by firing teargas canisters and stun grenades.

Demonstrators also climbed on top of a building and burned an Israeli flag. At least one car was set on fire.

A police spokesman said that 38 demonstrators had been arrested by early evening and that the clashes were dying down.

However, dozens of police trucks were seen rolling into the narrow streets of the historically Jewish Marais neighborhood where French media said groups of protesters had assembled.

President Francois Hollande earlier said he had asked his interior minister to ban protests that could turn violent after demonstrators marched on two synagogues in Paris last weekend and clashed with riot police.

"That's why I asked the interior minister, after an investigation, to ensure that such protests would not take place," he told journalists during a visit to Chad.

In defiance of the ban, large crowds gathered in northern Paris chanting "Israel, assassin" until they were dispersed by tear gas.

Peaceful rallies were also held in more than a dozen other cities, from Lille in the north to Marseille in the south.

"This ban on demonstrations, which was decided at the last minute, actually increases the risk of public disorder," the Greens Party said in a statement. "It's a first in Europe."

Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve justified bans in Paris and the Mediterranean city of Nice by saying the security risk was too great, prompting outrage from left-wing and pro-Palestinian groups.

Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius responded to criticism France was biased in favor of Israel, which sent ground forces in on Thursday after 10 days of air and naval barrages failed to stop rocket fire from Gaza.

"In no way does this mean that the French government has taken a position against the Palestinians," he told journalists during a visit to Jordan.

TENSIONS HIGH

Elsewhere in Europe, a man set off a security alert in Geneva when he stopped a tram to retrieve bags that included a book with a radical Islamist image in it, police said.

The alert coincided with a demonstration against Israel's assault on Gaza that drew some 300 protesters to the front of the U.N. European headquarters in the Swiss city.

In London, thousands of pro-Palestinian demonstrators marched peacefully clutching Palestinian flags and banners reading "Stop the bombing" and "Free Palestine" before congregating outside of the Israeli embassy.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has contributed to growing tensions between France's Muslim and Jewish populations, both of which are the largest in Europe.

In the first three months of 2014 more Jews left France for Israel than at any other time since the Jewish state was created in 1948, with many citing rising anti-Semitism as a factor.

[Tamas]

Yeah I am reading a short summary of the We Are Not Antisemites protests around Europe and North Africa this past few days:

Allegedly:
-a synagogue in Paris was surrounded and an a good-old fashioned European pogrom almost took place
-another synagogue was Molotoved near Paris
-lotsa' protests in France in general, allegedly yelling for the destruction of Jews in Arabic
-in German cities the far-left and far-right united in protest against "cionist aggression"
-in Gelsenkirchen, they wanted to "gas the Jews"
-in Frankfurt, protesters had the opportunity to use a police car's loud speaker: http://jungle-world.com/jungleblog/2841/
-in Turkey, a pro-government newspaper said that the Jewish community in Turkey supports the murder of children: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0%2C7340%2CL-4545097%2C00.html
-in Marocco a rabbi was beaten up for "what happens in Gaza"
-in Australia a former Israeli soldier was stabbed for the same

People always talk about the identity crisis of the EU. The solution is quite evident from that list: put the Endlosung on official EU agenda, and the people will rally under the blue flag.

[Duque de Bragança]

Yeah I am reading a short summary of the We Are Not Antisemites protests around Europe and North Africa this past few days:

Allegedly:
-a synagogue in Paris was surrounded and an a good-old fashioned European pogrom almost took place
-another synagogue was Molotoved near Paris
-lotsa' protests in France in general, allegedly yelling for the destruction of Jews in Arabic

People always talk about the identity crisis of the EU. The solution is quite evident from that list: put the Endlosung on official EU agenda, and the people will rally under the blue flag.

That should tell you how French are these anti-jew people. Most of them are thugs which benefit from the lax immigration and justice policies of left-wing governments. But then, even a football game with Algeria involved was enough for good old-fashioned rioting...
As for yelling in Arabic, I guess some people could twist it into see at last they are speaking a language, a real one, not just some illiterate delinquent sociolect, but I don't see the point.
As for France, the Jewish Defense League (Jewish Extreme right-wing too extreme for the official French Jewish umbrella org called CRIF) is still not banned. The current troubles will no doubt boost their membership.
FN will benefit as well, as they have always been under a PS government. They are quite quiet right now and are not showing up on Pro-Palestine rallies (sorry Tamas).
Soral and Dieudonné followers will claim this is the result of Louis Alliot's "zionist" line. Louis Alliot is the companion of Marine Le Pen.

Lots of Muslims voted for Hollande (90%). However, in view of his perceived pro-Israeli attitude, homosexual marriage and focus on gender theories at school but not basic skills, they are regretting it.
They are probably missing Sarkozy right now  who was once described as "pro-zionist" but had a falling out with Netanyahu. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/09/world/middleeast/in-overheard-comments-nicolas-sarkozy-calls-benjamin-netanyahu-a-liar.html
However, rioting under the cover of a protest of the Gaza operation, even if "criminal", is unacceptable. The conflict ought to say localised in the Near East.


PS: Missed the one in Frankfurt, on the Zeil means it's not like it happened in an ethnic enclave as in Paris but in a smaller-scale Champs-Élysées.
The synagog near Paris was the one in Sarcelles? That's Strauss-Kahn city. There used to be lots of Sefaradi there. They are going the Siege way, as well trying to move out of this suburb, gentrifying even more Paris.

Syt

The accidents you mentioned happened in the 10. Bezirk equivalent of Paris. Recently, an arthouse cinema opened there but it's not enough for boboisation.

[Syt]

10th District isn't the most multicultural, that'd be 15th or 16th. Or perhaps 20th.