The Mystery of Missing Malaysia Airlines 370

[dps]

Also, how do you use the mountains to avoid detection? Fly between them? That doesn't seem plausible for a 777,

Mountains return radar signals, and so create a lot of something called "ground return."  To get rid of it, operators disable returns from the lower lobes of the air search radar in that sector of the radar scan.  Anything flying low enough to stay in lose lower lobes won't be detected, even if they are (somewhat) above the height of the mountains.

The better argument against is the one you point out: how does the plane cross these densely-populated areas at altitudes low enough to avoid radar detection by civilian air traffic control radars and yet not be detected from the ground?  A commercial airliner at a coupla thousand feet is pretty noticeable, by noise if nothing else.

I figure that there are enough gaps in radar coverage that it's possible to avoid detection if you know what you're doing.  Just turning off the transponder wouldn't be sufficient, but it's a big part of that because without it, even if you show up on radar, you're simply an unknown aircraft at that point.  My question about it has been more along the lines of "where is there an airfield that something that size can land at without anybody noticing?"

[Iormlund]

Why does the NYT use maximum speed to plot max range? That makes no sense at all.

[grumbler]

I figure that there are enough gaps in radar coverage that it's possible to avoid detection if you know what you're doing.  Just turning off the transponder wouldn't be sufficient, but it's a big part of that because without it, even if you show up on radar, you're simply an unknown aircraft at that point.  My question about it has been more along the lines of "where is there an airfield that something that size can land at without anybody noticing?"

I cannot imagine that some yahoo stealing an airplane would know enough to bring radar detection apparatus onboard and install it, then know how to use it and how to change course to stay outside of detection range.  That is stuff that specialists have a hard time with.

Flying below the radar horizon is possible, but then you are so low as to be heard (and distinctly heard) from the ground, I would think.

You are correct to wonder about airfield sizes as well.  Even the minimum lengths listed are for rated pilots; someone stealing a plane might need much more, because they aren't going to land in the most efficient possible way.  Assuming that they were even going to try...

[grumbler]

Why does the NYT use maximum speed to plot max range? That makes no sense at all.

Because that's the information the Indonesian government gave them.  Agree it makes little sense (not "no sense at all") but that's the data the NYT people have.

[Razgovory]

I imagine that they were picked up radar but nobody thought it notable.  There is almost certainly a lot of planes flying over India at any given time.  They probably saw it on radar and assumed it was just a normal flight.

[Iormlund]

Wouldn't military ATC software automatically cross-check those contacts with transponder data, though? It would be a fairly trivial thing to program and would bring instant attention to an unidentified flight such as this one. Grumbler?

[grumbler]

Wouldn't military ATC software automatically cross-check those contacts with transponder data, though? It would be a fairly trivial thing to program and would bring instant attention to an unidentified flight such as this one. Grumbler?

Yes.  That's one of the things ATC has to worry about:  non-commercial aircraft intruding into the commercial aircraft system.  This wouldn't even be military ATC that would get an alert; commercial ATC would get an alert as well (within the range of their authority).

Planes that are below some altitude (I no longer remember what it is) are not subject to air traffic control rules unless in proximity of an airport, though.  Now that I think about it, it might well be possible for the pilots stealing this plane to mimic civil aviation and thus escape any real notice.  I don't know how common private aircraft are in Asia, but I know that in the US civil aviation is basically a matter of "stay low and slow and no one will care if you are in the air."

[Caliga]

My uncle used to have his own plane and commented once that he could do whatever he wanted (i.e. no need to file a flight plan), yeah.  He and my aunt used to fly down to Florida for the weekend on a whim sometimes.

[Jacob]

I imagine that they were picked up radar but nobody thought it notable.  There is almost certainly a lot of planes flying over India at any given time.  They probably saw it on radar and assumed it was just a normal flight.

I don't think that's likely. The Indians are pretty concerned about terrorism. Same with China.

EDIT: though I guess the "flying low" thing could make sense.

[CountDeMoney]

I find the laxness of the Indians in particular to be staggering!

I'm sure New Delhi has been notified.

[alfred russel]

The better argument against is the one you point out: how does the plane cross these densely-populated areas at altitudes low enough to avoid radar detection by civilian air traffic control radars and yet not be detected from the ground?  A commercial airliner at a coupla thousand feet is pretty noticeable, by noise if nothing else.

If you fly a 777 a few thousand feet over the ground through India, I think someone should notice. There are only about a billion people in the area.

[OttoVonBismarck]

My uncle used to have his own plane and commented once that he could do whatever he wanted (i.e. no need to file a flight plan), yeah.  He and my aunt used to fly down to Florida for the weekend on a whim sometimes.

I've done a decent bit of flying on private planes. Under visual flight rules you're never required to file a flight plan, you can only fly under VFR where both the conditions allow it and if you're under 18,000 ft. Anything above that you are required to fly under instrument flight rules, further if you're flying under IFR it doesn't matter what altitude you are flying at you have to fly a flight plan. But if you're flying over 18k feet you have to fly under IFR and you have to file a flight plan.

Many people that fly VFR still file a flight plan, though as it serves as a search and rescue tool. If you're flying from Tennessee to Florida, expected departure time of x and expected arrival time of y and you don't arrive then search and rescue knows the path you were supposed to take and can use that as a guide. Many pilots don't bother for short VFR flights but do bother for longer ones, just because it could in theory mean you get found and rescued if you crash and survive with injuries or at the very least it means your body will be found quicker in most cases and that can mean a lot for your family as just disappearing makes the legal issues around settling the estate and life insurance a lot more of a hassle.

[Razgovory]

I imagine that they were picked up radar but nobody thought it notable.  There is almost certainly a lot of planes flying over India at any given time.  They probably saw it on radar and assumed it was just a normal flight.

I don't think that's likely. The Indians are pretty concerned about terrorism. Same with China.

EDIT: though I guess the "flying low" thing could make sense.

Yeah, but India rarely has it's shit together.  Hell, during the Cold War some German guy flew all the way to Moscow and landed a plane in Red Square.  So even security conscious countries can screw up.

[The Larch]

[Admiral Yi]

he he