Deal with Iran?

[Admiral Yi]

But since they're the same jihadists doing both, there is a common enemy.

Iran was surprisingly co-operative with the US in Afghanistan for precisely that reason - both wanted the taliban out of power.

Fair enough, but where is the room for common policy, or a quid pro quo?  Iran has no leverage over Gulf funding or recruitment of terrorists.

[Jacob]

I think the way you defang extremists is by giving the non-extremists a stake in an upright apple cart.  The deal has the potential to do that with Iran.  If it doesn't work, little is lost.  Israel isn't going to defang the extremists, nor is it going to do much more than inconvenience the nuclear by bombing.

Concur.

[Admiral Yi]

Sure hope Lurch didn't give them too much free stuff they can welch on later.

He gave them $7 billion in unfrozen assets.

We're getting hustled again.

[DGuller]

As skeptical as I am of this deal, what's the alternative if not some kind of an agreement?  War isn't really the answer, is it?

[Jacob]

He gave them $7 billion in unfrozen assets.

We're getting hustled again.

You think so? Is $7 billion in unfrozen assets really that big a deal?

[Ed Anger]

At least they'll never see those 4 Spruance destroyers they ordered.

[Admiral Yi]

You think so? Is $7 billion in unfrozen assets really that big a deal?

A big enough deal to Iran so they go through the motions of making a deal and halt enrichment for a bit?  I would think so.

[Jacob]

A big enough deal to Iran so they go through the motions of making a deal and halt enrichment for a bit?  I would think so.

... and the Iranians for whom these $7B are a big deal, how will they feel when that money's done and there's a choice between getting even more assets unfrozen and trade normalized in return for proper de-escalation of their nuclear program on one hand, and going back to being deep frozen out of the international economy for a tenuous attempt to keep building the bomb?

It seems to me that you are analyzing the Iranians' motivations and actions as if they're North Korea; going for a hustle here and a shell-game there to keep a trickle of hard currency going. Personally, I don't think that's the Iranians are after.

[Admiral Yi]

What it should seem like is another front-loaded deal that the US has made with a country that has a track record of lying and cheating.

Everything Iran has promised to do is reversible.  They can switch back on their centrifuges at any time.  The unfrozen assets are not reversible.

[Jacob]

What it should seem like is another front-loaded deal that the US has made with a country that has a track record of lying and cheating.

Everything Iran has promised to do is reversible.  They can switch back on their centrifuges at any time.  The unfrozen assets are not reversible.

I was under the impression that there was some unprecedented inspection and decommissioning involved.

Though you do bring up a good point: what possible steps could Iran take that are not reversible, and thus acceptable (and specifically acceptable to you)? In particular, I'm interested in the kind of confidence-building part-way steps that are on the table right now.

[DGuller]

They could send all their nuclear scientists on a vacation to Israel. 

[Admiral Yi]

what possible steps could Iran take that are not reversible, and thus acceptable (and specifically acceptable to you)?

Take a sledgehammer to their centrifuges and their heavy water reactor.

[CountDeMoney]

I think we tend to overstate the relative importance of educated, urban, long haired booze guzzling Iranians and their hot sisters.

They've been overstated for years now.  Iran's not going to change from within.  Iranians worth a shit go abroad and don't come back, and the established elites at home are too busy enjoying the comfortable and unspoken agreement they have with the HMIC to know enough not to rock the boat. 

But no, we get the same argument from the same suckers every couple years, 155% of Iranians are under the age of 23, the information highway will free the youth of the clutches of the clerics, blah, blah, blah. Been hearing that bullshit for 20 years now.

[CountDeMoney]

At least they'll never see those 4 Spruance destroyers they ordered.

Which were turned into Kidd class destroyers, served in the US Navy for their lifespans, decommissioned, and then refurbished for the Taiwanese Navy. 

Poor Generalissimo Chiang is long dead, and they're still getting shitty hand-me-downs.   

[garbon]

I think we tend to overstate the relative importance of educated, urban, long haired booze guzzling Iranians and their hot sisters.

They've been overstated for years now.  Iran's not going to change from within.  Iranians worth a shit go abroad and don't come back, and the established elites at home are too busy enjoying the comfortable and unspoken agreement they have with the HMIC to know enough not to rock the boat. 

But no, we get the same argument from the same suckers every couple years, 155% of Iranians are under the age of 23, the information highway will free the youth of the clutches of the clerics, blah, blah, blah. Been hearing that bullshit for 20 years now.

Maybe this time, we'll be lucky.