Hungarian Politics

[crazy canuck]

Watching the crowds celebrate on the banks of the Danube and in the city centre after the election brought me back to when I was in Budapest in 1989. Same vibe of jubilance and hope for the future.  I really really hope it works out.

[Legbiter]

I have arrived at the Sándor Palace to meet the President of Hungary.

Dr TamasSulyok is unworthy of representing the unity of the Hungarian nation. He is unfit to serve as the guardian of legality. He is not fit to serve as a moral authority or a role model.

Following the formation of the new government, Tamás Sulyok must leave office immediately.

Now you have to start digging out the ticks.

[Tamas]

He also gave an interview to the state TV then said that after his government forms, state TV will be shut down until it is reorganised.

I am hoping Magyar's arrogance will serve a good purpose - he was hounded and attacked by the whole regime (that he served for years) relentlessly. I hope he takes revenge.

[Valmy]

Man...This is very encouraging. We needed a ruthless house cleaining in 2021 and didn't get one.

[Tamas]

Listening to Magyar's state TV interview from this morning. Quite hostile interviewer lady but he handled it very well. When talking about Orban's human wallet (I think by this time well above being a billionaire in euros), Lorinc Meszaros, he said "somebody who can barely write, or talk, I know I met him [how can amass such a wealth]" 

[Sheilbh]

Man...This is very encouraging. We needed a ruthless house cleaining in 2021 and didn't get one.

Well also Magyar won 55% of the vote to Fidesz's 38% and a two-thirds majority. The US didn't get the ruthless house clearing because there wasn't the overwhelming democratic repudiation/rejection - hopefully it'll come.

[crazy canuck]

The United States political system is not set up for house cleaning of any sort.  Their elections are staggered. There is no way to throw all the bums out at once.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. I suppose there's a few sides to it. On the institutional level - you're right. Their system has lots of checks and balances like that designed to constrain democracy. Although I think with the US because they have vastly more political appointees than any European country - you don't necessarily need to throw out all the bums, just enough to quickly approve a lot of those appointees and get them acting (and I think the Democrats were incredibly slow in filling appointments under Biden). While in situations like Hungary it's been the corruption and compromise of non-appointed state bodies and I think for that sort of institutional root and branch fight you do need a bit more of clearing the decks. Or perhaps a higher risk tolerance, see Donald Tusk's clever but tricky use of corporate law to dissolve the state broadcaster which was based on his willingness to have a constitutional confrontation in the top courts. And I think implicit within that is a risk the other side win in the future and you've left a lot of tools around the place.

On a purely political level you might not need to kick all the bums out if there's a bit enough wave (including at state level) to cause the party to shift direction politically. If it's really clear Trump and Trump backers are losers then that would change the politics (but might take one or two election cycles).

In the US you didn't really have either of them.

[Sheilbh]

Fascinating interview with Ivan Krastev (co-author of the very good The Light That Failed which is about the rise of populism/crisis of liberalism looking at CEE as the cutting edge) in Equator, which is always worth reading:
https://www.equator.org/articles/the-mittel-man?preview=true

[DGuller]

Man...This is very encouraging. We needed a ruthless house cleaining in 2021 and didn't get one.

Well also Magyar won 55% of the vote to Fidesz's 38% and a two-thirds majority. The US didn't get the ruthless house clearing because there wasn't the overwhelming democratic repudiation/rejection - hopefully it'll come.

We came close structurally.  Democrats were on the verge of filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, and with that a lot more things could've been done.  Democrats just had incredibly awful luck in this millenium, starting with the 2000 election, where all the close calls went the GOP way.

[Tamas]

Magyar, when talking about the nazi party constantly making demands with their 5-6 MPs said "they have what, 5 or 6 MPs? Point is they have fewer MPs than Snowhite has dwarves so they cannot launch committees on their own"

Same presser he turns to the journos to open for question he says "i see here is [rabidly pro-orban news tv channel] they haven't closed down yet"

 

He is kind of mixing pro-western moderate Right policies including very pro-democracy (in rhetoric at least) that are quite vanilla and classic with sometimes almost Trumpian levels of arrogance and bluntness.

It's amusing so far and it's the right attitude to allow hope for actually seeing some consequences for Fidesz cronies, but it is easy to imagine him drifting into becoming just the next Orban in time.

[Legbiter]

Yeah he's a skilled politician. He's not trumpian, it's that every other European politician/leader except a handful of exceptions just has this aura of a mildly petulant gerbil.

[Tamas]

Yeah he's a skilled politician. He's not trumpian, it's that every other European politician/leader except a handful of exceptions just has this aura of a mildly petulant gerbil.

Yeah that was a problem on the left in Hungary. You listened to the party leaders and they were so fucking cringe there was no way to pretend they mean anything of what they say

[Norgy]

Yeah he's a skilled politician. He's not trumpian, it's that every other European politician/leader except a handful of exceptions just has this aura of a mildly petulant gerbil.

Stub seems quite genuine. Støre is genuine. Mette Fredriksen is genuine. Kristersson is typical Swedish upper class.
Merz is a cunt, Macron is an empty suit, Sanchez is cool as hell. The less said about Starmer, the better.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah that was a problem on the left in Hungary. You listened to the party leaders and they were so fucking cringe there was no way to pretend they mean anything of what they say

Yeah I think there's interesting possible reasons for it (I think Ruling the Void flags a lot of them in a Euro-context - which I think is possible even more extreme in CEE). I think in a lot of European politics finding a politician who is able to speak clearly and directly is like dropping a grey wolf into a petting zoo.

I also think this might partly just reflect the shift in style caused by new communication technologies too. I've mentioned it before but in the UK New Labour and Tony Blair were, in part, so effective becaue the really closely studied Bill Clinton and worked with his team (and Bill Clinton in turn had done this to the Democrats). I think it's part of the challenge Labour still have is that it still looks to me that their cadres have basically done 90s media training. What was ground-breaking then became untrustworthy and technology's changed the style of communication so it now just looks a bit like someone from the newsreel age declaiming at the camera in the age of TV (I think this is true of a lot of Democrats too).

In the UK context I'm really struck at the differene Polanski has made to the Greens just by (1) wanting to do media appearances and (2) being a competent communicator (and political entrepreneur - I think the best since Farage). I think Polanski's very good social media clips, good enough in interviews and hosting his own podcast to talk about politics is really smart and reflects modern communications. I saw that Reform are now launching a podcast of their own and I think that's the first time I can remember Reform/Farage nicking someone else's idea on how to campaign in a very long time.

I think in part it reflects that need for "authenticity" - especially the podcast piece. Which is basically the idea that we want leaders who can hang and are able to do an hour or two of unstructured chat. I'm not sure this is good for democracy as we've known it in Europe - I think it's very personalist and borderline parasocial which I don't think are healthy in a democratic society. But while I don't want to go full Adorno (Radio? Fascist. TV? Fascist. Movies? Fascist. Telephone? Surprisingly, democratic) I do think the modes communication produce new requirements in leaders and how they communicate and the main parties are still stuck in the mid-90s.

Stub seems quite genuine. Støre is genuine. Mette Fredriksen is genuine. Kristersson is typical Swedish upper class.
Merz is a cunt, Macron is an empty suit, Sanchez is cool as hell. The less said about Starmer, the better.

I like Stubb but I think he's the only Nordic leader I have a real opinion on. I saw a thing with Starmer recently where he said as you'd expect that world leaders have WhatsApp groups together (I think this is a bad idea on so many levels but it's the world we live in). The interviewer asked who was the most prolific WhatsApper and with zero hesitation he said it was Stubb

I think defence is the most important thing in Europe right now. On that front I don't really care about Merz's personality or other policies - the increase in spending on defence and infrastructure is essential and very very good. I think Jake posted a video about increases in European defence spending that's many hundreds of billions of Euros which is very good. But if you break it down it's basically Germany and Poland, plus some smaller North European countries.

There's a lot I like about Sanchez but I have some issues. I like Tusk - I've always quite liked Tusk including as EuCo President (whereas I can't stand Juncker).

I am still fascinated by Macron. I think he's the only European leader possibly in the time I've been conscious of politics who has an analysis and vision of Europe that even comes close to meeting the moment. He hasn't been able to deliver it for a variety of reasons, including himself.

Agree on Starmer. And I know I bang on about it and generally everyone is relaxed about her, but I still think Meloni is very dangerous.