Hungarian Politics

[HVC]

I think that is a good point; Putin is spending his money elsewhere.
While I do not think this is the end of FSB's trolls and election interference, as I think Putin already has new candidates like the good KGB boi he is, I think Russia's internal problems are outgrowing the ability to project clandestine power very quickly.

They just have to find a new pawn in Europe. Get one coalition party or a PM in any of the 26 EU countries to fuck coordination on things like Ukraine. There's a Liberum Veto kinda weakness inherent in the EU machinery.

Is the Czech PM still pro Putin?

[Legbiter]

I think that is a good point; Putin is spending his money elsewhere.
While I do not think this is the end of FSB's trolls and election interference, as I think Putin already has new candidates like the good KGB boi he is, I think Russia's internal problems are outgrowing the ability to project clandestine power very quickly.

They just have to find a new pawn in Europe. Get one coalition party or a PM in any of the 26 EU countries to fuck coordination on things like Ukraine. There's a Liberum Veto kinda weakness inherent in the EU machinery.

Is the Czech PM still pro Putin?

Yes. Plus the Slovak one. And the biggest party in the upcoming Bulgarian elections is pro-russian.

[Sheilbh]

I still find it weird that the countries the Soviets literally invaded within living memory keep electing pro-Russians.

[HVC]

I still find it weird that the countries the Soviets literally invaded within living memory keep electing pro-Russians.

It's tied to people missing the "good old days" that never really existed. When you're in a country that was commie you're kind of stuck pining for Russia. Nostalgia is often felt without actual consideration to truth.

[Tamas]

Anecdotal evidence from someone I know: one former Orbán voter said that while he supports Fidesz politics, the corruption was too much, causing him to switch votes for the first time. Tamas, any idea how much that reflects other right-wing voters?

It had grown to ridiculous levels lately (zebras and such at Orbán's family castle) but it was going on an industrial scale from pretty much 2011.

The decisive national-level switch was the fucked up economy, I am pretty sure. It made the corruption more in your face and annoying.

[Sheilbh]

It had grown to ridiculous levels lately (zebras and such at Orbán's family castle) but it was going on an industrial scale from pretty much 2011.

The decisive national-level switch was the fucked up economy, I am pretty sure. It made the corruption more in your face and annoying.

FWIW - as I say I think part of the lesson from this is that there isn't necessarily a lesson or a single rulebook on defeating illiberal/authoritarian democrats.

But I think anti-corruption is a really, really powerful weapon if it can be harnessed. Even in the least democratic of those regimes - there's a reason Navalny is where he is. It's also where I think we need to be really careful not to just negatively polarise. So Orban etc are populists, therefore populism bad and we must do the opposite of populism - because to me it seems like part of what you need to be saying is that they're crooks and they're out to con you and it is a conspiracy against the public. Because it's effective, because it's true.

That does mean you need to be in a position to do that. So I've said in relation to the US there's lots of analogies to the Gilded Age - the political reaction to the Gilded Age was populism. And I think oppostion to Trump should channel that: no billionaires in the White House, no insider trading in public office etc. But that means you need to clean house a bit on your own side around billionaires and suspiciously wealthy members of Congress. Otherwise the possibly less true, cynical populism of "they're all at it" wins.

[crazy canuck]

I don't see any evidence that corruption of politicians moves the needle at all. As Tamas pointed out, what does move the needle is things that effect people personally. The cost of living, jobs and whether their kids will be ok. No Maga supporters were disillusioned when the corruption of the Trump administration became blatant. His popularity took a big hit when gas prices went up.

[HVC]

Looks like your new health minister was a club kid

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DXEj0Bcgocb

[Syt]

Is part of Orbán being so quiet that he's trusting that his control of media, courts, universities etc. will keep him clear (or at least hinder the new government significantly)? It's kind of what's happening in Poland (though PiS didn't manage to cement itself quite as much, I think).

[Syt]

[Norgy]

 

[Tamas]

 

[Tamas]

Is part of Orbán being so quiet that he's trusting that his control of media, courts, universities etc. will keep him clear (or at least hinder the new government significantly)? It's kind of what's happening in Poland (though PiS didn't manage to cement itself quite as much, I think).

The silence is a bit puzzling but then again the defeat has been historic in scale, I can easily imagine escalatory plans made for a narrow defeat were scrapped in light of the devastating collapse in their support.

With Magyar having a constitutional majority, the many Orban cronies in position can definitely slow things down but they cannot stop things.

For example, the president of Hungary is a despicable sock puppet with many shady dealings from his lawyer days. He won't resign on his own and while in power can just refuse to sign bills into law.

To force him out you need 2/3rd of the Constitutional Court judges to vote for it. All of them are Orban stooges so they won't do that.

But Magyar and his government can rewrite laws and the constitution as they wish or do what Orban has been doing since 2020 and rule by decree. So they can dismantle the above but it's some major changes to the foundations of the state.

[crazy canuck]

Right wing populists are rarely dedicated ideologues, and this is good case in point. As in the United States, they are grifters. Once the jig is up, they move away as quickly as they can, carrying as much of their ill-gotten gains as they can. And with a constitutional majority, the jig is definitely up.

Just watch how quickly Republicans will turn on Trump when it becomes clear that there will be no pardons, and no cover for them. They will recall how they were all never Trumpers and were acting behind the scenes to oust him from power.

[Legbiter]

Incredible. 

https://x.com/ThomasVLinge/status/2044370633006731401