Iran War

[crazy canuck]

I think possibly worse for Israel - ultimately America's a distant imperial power. The Israelis live there.

See how it turns out but if Iran have stuck to their demand that any ceasefire also covers Lebanon, plus a new revenue stream (assuming sanctions won't be lifted) and a nuclear program that hasn't been destroyed (assuming we don't believe Trump's claims from eight months ago...), plus effective deterrence and - I suspect - a lot of American allies mid-rapprochement with Israel looking at the region again. I think that's pretty much worst case scenario for Israel.

We'll see on how things shake out with Lebanon. At the moment, Israel was able to invade Lebanon and demand the evacuation of the population in the areas they control, do some damage to Iran on both a logistical and hierarchy level, and still have their dupe the US willing to follow their lead. Longer term? Yeah. It will probably bear some pretty terrible fruit for Israel, but at the moment, they look like they came out a heck of a lot better than the US.

Israel is kind of like the kid who was a bully because his big brother was at the school and everybody feared his big brother. But when the big brother left the school, the bully figured out it probably would've been better not to be a bully.

[Sophie Scholl]

...and Israel is still fighting Iran. Awesome. 

[Valmy]

Seems like an overall win for Iran?

If they get to keep enriching Uranium then yes they will have won the war.

If they get those ten points then yes. They won. Rather decisively.

But this is all bullshit. I have no idea what is going on in reality.

[frunk]

The Israeli strategy for many years has been to get short term security in exchange for long term instability.  It works at the local level, mostly, but if you try to scale it up like they are doing now it will only reduce the security window and increase the instability to unpredictably chaotic degrees.

[crazy canuck]

...and Israel is still fighting Iran. Awesome. 

The Israelis need the cease-fire to fail and for the United States to come back into this war.

Trump declaring victory and trying to leave is as predictable as Israel doing everything it can to stop that from happening.

[Tonitrus]

A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they've had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We'll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just "hangin' around" in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP

More threats. 

[Syt]

Ok, so last time there were negotiations, Iran was about to make big concessions and then bombing starts.

Now Iran comes back with a maximalist 10 points (surprised dissolution of Israel isn't on there) and it's a good basis for discussion?

Meanwhile, I assume Bibi is already looking for ways out of the ceasefire. Not to mention that it seems having dicussions with the US is not worth anything because they keep reneging and changing their minds (see above).

[Tamas]

I have jusy realised that Trump is going to start bombing Cuba in the next two weeks so that he won't have to restart bombing Iran after the ceasefire.

[garbon]

Ok, so last time there were negotiations, Iran was about to make big concessions and then bombing starts.

Now Iran comes back with a maximalist 10 points (surprised dissolution of Israel isn't on there) and it's a good basis for discussion?

I feel like we may be overreading into what 'good basis for discussion' means. I don't think that means that Iran will necessarily get most of what is on its list.

BBC also had this analysis:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c5yw4g3z7qgt?post=asset%3A25a64be9-e86b-4846-8052-e5e49ae736df#post

Negotiations are going to be very difficult

There's a deficit of trust between the US and Iran with another round of talks set to begin.

Iran and the US have negotiated twice in the past year. Both times in the middle of negotiations a war has started.

No matter how victorious Iran portrays themselves in state media, it is in a very weak position.

Its army has been heavily battered, its economy is in shambles, and the regime has unfinished business with the opposition and the people.

In the past few days, the government has started executing some of those people who were arrested during the protests in January

The regime has to harden its grip on power inside the country. It's in a bad situation, but at the same time its demands are difficult for the Americans to address.

The US says it has accepted the ceasefire under the condition that there will be free flow of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran is mentioning that it wants to have control over maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz because of its geographic location - that's its number one priority.

There is going to be difficult negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme.

Iranian state media are saying that the US has agreed to uranium enrichment in Iran.

The US has said it wants no enrichment being done in Iran.

It's going to be a very hard two weeks.

[Tamas]

Yeah except I am pretty sure Trump has no desire to resume hostilities.

[jimmy olsen]

        

Pardon my language, but...no fucking way, right?

[Josephus]

Trump will spin this as a win of course.

Now he needs a nice place to vacation, and Havana is calling.

[mongers]

Trump will spin this as a win of course.

Now he needs a nice place to vacation, and Havana is calling.

Yes, unfortunately.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Seems like we're still not getting clear details on what agreement governs the ceasefire--with the unreliable parties, meaning Iran and Trump, both saying pretty conflicting things. I suspect we'll find out more definitively in the next few days.

One thing that seems certain because it has been publicly stated by the Israeli government--Lebanon doesn't appear to be covered by the ceasefire at all.

[HVC]

Trump will spin this as a win of course.

Now he needs a nice place to vacation, and Havana is calling.

Cubas in a for a rough time, but I don't think for a bit. Whether it goes bad or good Iran will take up news space for a while, and that's what Trump wants.