Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-26

[The Brain]

Doesn't the UK have rows and rows of battleships at Scapa anymore?

[Syt]

Doesn't the UK have rows and rows of battleships at Scapa anymore?

We haven't had a decent naval race in a while. Makes me want to fire up (and learn ) Rule the Waves 3.



There was a reason why all bridges across the Nord-Ostsee-Kanal (previously Kaiser-Wilhelm-Kanal) had to be built extra high.

[The Brain]

[The Minsky Moment]

blockads brought down Napoleon and the Kaiser.

The extent to which both Napoleonic France and Imperial Germany depended on internet advertising revenues to maintain military spending has indeed been severely under-rated in the academic literature.

[The Brain]

[HisMajestyBOB]

[viper37]

And this is the country whose blockads brought down Napoleon and the Kaiser. How the mighty have fallen. 

I was about to point out that geographically Germany is pretty easy to blockade...but geographically Russia is even easier so...

Not totally sure.

From the  North Sea, the UK could easily blockade them.  In the Mediteranean/Black Sea, it would have to be France.  So, there, it's a lack of political will.

The Pacific coast remain problematic.  It's still 15-20% of their exports.

We can't count on the US for anything.  Russia does have a lot of O&G export and is building more in this area.

And of course, if there's a significant western/NATO presence near China to block Asian exports, it's likely they won't be too happy.

[Legbiter]

Swedish SOF seized another russian shitbucket in the Baltic. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Swedish SOF seized another russian shitbucket in the Baltic. 

good.

[Sheilbh]

Not totally sure.

From the  North Sea, the UK could easily blockade them.  In the Mediteranean/Black Sea, it would have to be France.  So, there, it's a lack of political will.

We're in a "frigate gap" and don't really have many if any deployable ships. The First Sea Lord has been waving a red flag around this for some time but we are effectively not currently in a position to contest the North Atlantic. So I don't think it's a lack of political will so much as chickens come home to roost after decades of underinvestment (the situation should improve after 2030 - so it would be greatly appreciated if the world could just stop for the next four years).

I'd add that from the reporting here when we can take action each proposed intervention against the shadow fleet is going to the "top" for legal review regarding international law and then needs to be individually signed off. Needless to say that apparently does add a fair bit of friction and delay. I'd read that as the Attorney General (who is blamed by a lot of the cabinet for a lot of problems in government) reviewing them all closely. And in fairness - on this I do sort of see his point (a bit like the expropriation of Russian sanctioned assets in Europe, which is opposed very strongly by more than just the usual suspects and the ECB) - these are very serious precedents we're setting for enforcing sanctions only endorsed by Western states at a point when Western states are unlikely to be setting the agenda for much longer. It sort of goes to the international law point in the other thread.

[Richard Hakluyt]

There is also some sort of modernisation programme going on; a tilt towards unmanned vessels, drones etc etc. I'm mainly aware of this from a speech by the head of the RN https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news/2025/september/11/20250911-first-sea-lord-outlines-future-of-the-royal-navy-at-dsei , it sounds promising, but part of his job is to maintain morale in the service of course.

[viper37]

Not totally sure.

From the  North Sea, the UK could easily blockade them.  In the Mediteranean/Black Sea, it would have to be France.  So, there, it's a lack of political will.

We're in a "frigate gap" and don't really have many if any deployable ships. The First Sea Lord has been waving a red flag around this for some time but we are effectively not currently in a position to contest the North Atlantic. So I don't think it's a lack of political will so much as chickens come home to roost after decades of underinvestment (the situation should improve after 2030 - so it would be greatly appreciated if the world could just stop for the next four years).

I'd add that from the reporting here when we can take action each proposed intervention against the shadow fleet is going to the "top" for legal review regarding international law and then needs to be individually signed off. Needless to say that apparently does add a fair bit of friction and delay. I'd read that as the Attorney General (who is blamed by a lot of the cabinet for a lot of problems in government) reviewing them all closely. And in fairness - on this I do sort of see his point (a bit like the expropriation of Russian sanctioned assets in Europe, which is opposed very strongly by more than just the usual suspects and the ECB) - these are very serious precedents we're setting for enforcing sanctions only endorsed by Western states at a point when Western states are unlikely to be setting the agenda for much longer. It sort of goes to the international law point in the other thread.

I see.

Legalities aside, it should be a NATO operation. But for that, NATO should be at war with Russia.  We're just itching for Russia to seriously attack one member country.  Which they'll do as soon as the US pulls out.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And its likely to be at Narva, as the ruskies have already launched their people's republic nonsense play for the area

[Sheilbh]

There is also some sort of modernisation programme going on; a tilt towards unmanned vessels, drones etc etc. I'm mainly aware of this from a speech by the head of the RN https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news/2025/september/11/20250911-first-sea-lord-outlines-future-of-the-royal-navy-at-dsei , it sounds promising, but part of his job is to maintain morale in the service of course.

I agree - and the frigate gap will end in a few years when the new ships are finally commissioned.

But I think this is sort of indicative of my urgency on European defence and spending. This isn't Starmer's fault or even the last few governments' faults. It goes back to Strategic Defence Reviews in the 2000s and Brown basically forcing the MoD to fund either Iraq and Afghanistan or what they said they needed in the SDR, so cutting the number of ships they "required" in half. The coalition further salami slice it, but do commit to the new frigaates - but it's pushed back (I suspect to move capital expenditure out of a budget cycle for the purpose of Treasury rules).

The ships, proposed in the 2000s, finally committed to 15 years ago won't be ready for another four years. And that story of underinvestment, salami slicing, delaying commitments is endemic in European defence and it will take time to recover even when the spending is there.

I see.

Yeah I wish it was just political will. But I think right now the Royal Navy consists of under 20 ships (aside from support vessels), of which somewhere around or more than 15 are undergoing maintenance or re-fits. There is a very real constraint as well as political will and a legalist attitude

[Legbiter]

Intense russian video from the Hostomel air assault attempt at the beginning of the war in Ukraine. The intrepid documentarian and every paratrooper you see in the video was KIA.

https://x.com/dim0kq/status/2040827543008247821