Iran War?

[Valmy]

I find it kind of crazy that our country has degenerated to the point that Israel can ethnically cleanse hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians from their property and the most the United States government will do is meekly suggest they not be too evil to the Christians.

Human rights? Property rights? Not real things, just privileges this evil empire I live in will give you if it likes you.

One of the largest ethnic cleansing campaigns in history. "Shrug" goes the USA.

[Legbiter]

Israel is off the chain, the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. For the moment at least.

[The Minsky Moment]

Witkoff and Kushner are talking to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament. I somehow doubt that he has control over the Republican Guard. We will see.

The smartest thing to do would be to demand sanction relief but offer to put Jared Kushner or someone Trump trusted onto the board of the new Hormuz toll booth (you get 10%). 

The problem with negotiating with a pliable insider in such a large country and given the Shia underpinnings of the state is he would face an immediate Brutus problem. As in liable to get killed by outraged members of the regime (no nuclear or ballistic program, no pet militias in the ME, etc).

Guys you have to stop taking the Trump Reality Show plots seriously.

In terms of substantive reality, these negotiations are somewhere between the 2020 DNC-Chavez Stolen Election Plot and Trump's claims to have prevented wars in fictitious countries.

[Jacob]

Once the 11th and 31st MEU arrive in theatre, what sort of forces does the US have for a boots on the ground scenario? My preliminary search indicates it's about 50 000 troops, but I'm unclear on what kind of roles they're suited for and what kind of hardware they have.

I'm no expert, but that number seems insufficient for anything other than planting your boots firmly in the quagmire. IIRC Gulf War I saw about 500 000 American troops deployed at first.

Which leads me to my second question - how long would it take for the US to marshal that sort of forces? And what sort of signs should we look for that would indicate that the US is committing to an actual invasion? I'd expect we'd see stop-loss orders being issued, but anything else? I'd imagine we'd see significant force repositioning, for example? Though I'd expect they'd have to be marshaled outside the GCC bases as those are withing range of Iranian attacks.
 
(as an aside, I was just once more reminded how asinine AI is. I was googling the MEU a few times, and got "they're expected to arrive in late May" as well as "they'll arrive within the week")

[The Brain]

Planning isn't a thing in the US, so who the fuck knows?

[Syt]

It really feels like the meme.

1. Bomb Iran.
2. ???
3. Profit!

[Zoupa]

Once the 11th and 31st MEU arrive in theatre, what sort of forces does the US have for a boots on the ground scenario? My preliminary search indicates it's about 50 000 troops, but I'm unclear on what kind of roles they're suited for and what kind of hardware they have.

I'm no expert, but that number seems insufficient for anything other than planting your boots firmly in the quagmire. IIRC Gulf War I saw about 500 000 American troops deployed at first.

Which leads me to my second question - how long would it take for the US to marshal that sort of forces? And what sort of signs should we look for that would indicate that the US is committing to an actual invasion? I'd expect we'd see stop-loss orders being issued, but anything else? I'd imagine we'd see significant force repositioning, for example? Though I'd expect they'd have to be marshaled outside the GCC bases as those are withing range of Iranian attacks.
 
(as an aside, I was just once more reminded how asinine AI is. I was googling the MEU a few times, and got "they're expected to arrive in late May" as well as "they'll arrive within the week")

You'd be looking at 8 months to a year to move enough forces to the area. I'm not sure how you would even get them in country. It would have to be the biggest amphibious operation since D-Day.

I don't think it's a real possibility. The costs would be astronomical.

[grumbler]

Once the 11th and 31st MEU arrive in theatre, what sort of forces does the US have for a boots on the ground scenario? My preliminary search indicates it's about 50 000 troops, but I'm unclear on what kind of roles they're suited for and what kind of hardware they have.

I'm no expert, but that number seems insufficient for anything other than planting your boots firmly in the quagmire. IIRC Gulf War I saw about 500 000 American troops deployed at first.

Which leads me to my second question - how long would it take for the US to marshal that sort of forces? And what sort of signs should we look for that would indicate that the US is committing to an actual invasion? I'd expect we'd see stop-loss orders being issued, but anything else? I'd imagine we'd see significant force repositioning, for example? Though I'd expect they'd have to be marshaled outside the GCC bases as those are withing range of Iranian attacks.
 
(as an aside, I was just once more reminded how asinine AI is. I was googling the MEU a few times, and got "they're expected to arrive in late May" as well as "they'll arrive within the week")

A MEU is a reinforced battalion, about 2200 men. The 50,000 man figure you may have seen is the total number of Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marines in region. Ground troops would be a small fraction of that.

The US could not generate Gulf War levels of forces in less than years. The US Army has about 150,000 combat troops (infantry, artillery, armor, SpecOps), the National Guard about an equal number. And all of those would not be available for deployment.

[crazy canuck]

To add to the point that the US is nowhere near ready to deploy the necessary number of ground troops, the NYTimes reported the US was just starting to consider whether airborne units could be used to take Karghal island, and up to 5000 troops were being considered.

The US thought this would be a quick air war. These are not serious people.  Jacob, my advice is to stop assuming the Trumpists have strategic thinking that does not involve grift.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I had sort of mentioned this months ago before Trump attacked Iran--if you go back to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the U.S. had moved around 150,000 troops to the theater (largely using Kuwait as a staging ground) for the invasion. This took months and if you recall, this goes back to September 2002.

Congress passed the AUMF in October of 2002, and Bush spent the intervening months between then and the March 2003 invasion both staging troops and engaging in a campaign to a) get allies on board (this worked somewhat, while some big allies explicitly rejected it, our most significant military ally under Tony Blair joined the invasion), b) get the U.S. public on board--people like to try to pretend otherwise, but this worked exceptionally well. Something like 75% of Americans polled favored the war in the immediate run up to it, the people who were against it "all along" forming a relatively small minority.

I've found people often try to retcon the idea the war was unpopular right away, it wasn't--it only truly became unpopular after Tet-style moments like the insurgent battle of Fallujah, which killed dozens of Marines and showed that the situation was quickly going sideways.

I had noted--there was no similar military build up around Iran, which is why I was initially very skeptical ground troops were even being considered.

However, I underestimated the degree to which Trump would be stupid--something I usually don't underestimate, but sometimes even he can surprise me by showing previous low bars were not, in fact, the floor.

My new suspicion is we could see a small scale ground incursion, likely staged as a tactical maneuver with limited goals. I then think what will happen is that ground incursion could cause further bad events--a mass casualty event for U.S. troops for example, which will then create political support sufficient to fund a bigger war, and you'll see a steady increase of ground troops to the conflict. This somewhat has parallels in how we got in to Vietnam--it started as advisors, then was a limited scope deployment of a small number of forces, then the President needed more boots on the ground...then more...and then more etc, suddenly it's a major war with hundreds of thousands of U.S. troops in Southeast Asia.

In terms of actually invading Iran--I don't think it would be done amphibiously, I think if there's a  large scale invasion it would likely go through Iraq. (I have no idea if Iraq would "allow it", but I don't think they would be able to physically stop it nor would they seriously try.)

Something I did say back before Trump attacked though--a true invasion cannot be done on the Pentagon's existing budget, the money isn't there. So for one to happen, Trump will need supplemental funding from Congress. That's something that can't happen covertly, so you'll know that's happening when and if it does occur.

[viper37]

However, I underestimated the degree to which Trump would be stupid--something I usually don't underestimate, but sometimes even he can surprise me by showing previous low bars were not, in fact, the floor.

Don't count yourself short.

This thread if filled with comments by you underestimating Trump's stupidity.  His whole admin is you underestimating his and his Congress followers stupidity.

[Grey Fox]

If the USS Tripoli group didn't slow down the past week, they are arriving today.

[OttoVonBismarck]

However, I underestimated the degree to which Trump would be stupid--something I usually don't underestimate, but sometimes even he can surprise me by showing previous low bars were not, in fact, the floor.

Don't count yourself short.

This thread if filled with comments by you underestimating Trump's stupidity.  His whole admin is you underestimating his and his Congress followers stupidity.

You should always assume the best of people in life.

[jimmy olsen]

WTF
https://x.com/elaifresh/status/2036217479295541392?s=20

holy moly Trump has been a Kharg Island Crank for FORTY YEARS

[Richard Hakluyt]

Trump is so brave when it comes to putting other people's lives at risk. He would "go in", yeah right