Iran War?

[OttoVonBismarck]

Hegseth is claiming 16 Iranian minelaying vessels destroyed before entering the Strait, no mines deployed.

Obviously anything he said is worth less than the 30 pack of Busch Light he pounded last weekend, so we'll see what some reputable sources say.

[Tamas]

I assume there are no meaningful US naval assets in the Persian Gulf, right? Being stuck behind a minefield and all

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think most are in the Indian Ocean.

Also—ISW which has been doing high quality daily reports stated today their satellite data partner at DOD request will now delay all satellite imagery by 14 days, so ISW will no longer be able to confirm aerial strikes in its daily maps.

[Tonitrus]

Trump has shown he cares little for allies. If he can get his mission accomplished photo op on a boat and some slaps on the back he'll be ecstatic. Maybe throw in a few peace prizes for bringing peace to the middle east. Then it'll all start over once epstein is in the news again. What people should worry about is who he'll attack next after Cuba to get ahead of the news cycle.

My meaning was not so much about the alliances themselves, but about a belligerent and dangerous Iran keeping Hormuz closed indefinitely after Trump bows out. 

They will be much more incentivized and likely to threaten and blackmail the other gulf states.  Probably even for reparations to rebuild destroyed oil infrastructure on the "if we can't do it, neither will you" idea.

[crazy canuck]

Trump has shown he cares little for allies. If he can get his mission accomplished photo op on a boat and some slaps on the back he'll be ecstatic. Maybe throw in a few peace prizes for bringing peace to the middle east. Then it'll all start over once epstein is in the news again. What people should worry about is who he'll attack next after Cuba to get ahead of the news cycle.

My meaning was not so much about the alliances themselves, but about a belligerent and dangerous Iran keeping Hormuz closed indefinitely after Trump bows out. 

They will be much more incentivized and likely to threaten and blackmail the other gulf states.  Probably even for reparations to rebuild destroyed oil infrastructure on the "if we can't do it, neither will you" idea.

I think it would be a bit more nuanced, and frankly reasonable, to say "Hey you guys were the ones who let the US into this region, now take some responsibility for cleaning up the mess you helped create."

[mongers]

Trump has shown he cares little for allies. If he can get his mission accomplished photo op on a boat and some slaps on the back he'll be ecstatic. Maybe throw in a few peace prizes for bringing peace to the middle east. Then it'll all start over once epstein is in the news again. What people should worry about is who he'll attack next after Cuba to get ahead of the news cycle.

My meaning was not so much about the alliances themselves, but about a belligerent and dangerous Iran keeping Hormuz closed indefinitely after Trump bows out. 

They will be much more incentivized and likely to threaten and blackmail the other gulf states.  Probably even for reparations to rebuild destroyed oil infrastructure on the "if we can't do it, neither will you" idea.

Well trump famously judged Zelensky of having not cards, now the Iranians had very few cards, which trump might have seen as weakness and gone along with Israel's attack, hoping to destroy the whole Iranian hand, so to speak.

But it turns out Iran has one card left, closing the straits, a trump card to trump trump if you will.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I think most are in the Indian Ocean.

Also—ISW which has been doing high quality daily reports stated today their satellite data partner at DOD request will now delay all satellite imagery by 14 days, so ISW will no longer be able to confirm aerial strikes in its daily maps.

how 'delightfully' authoritarian. Next they'll tell us Paulus is still holding out in Volgograd

[Legbiter]

This shitshow war continues. The Iranians have started mining the Hormuz Strait. This is now a covid-tier global economic shock.

[Sheilbh]

And I suspect the next phase is likely to be to escalate beyond the Gulf, I still think at some point Iran will involve the Houthis trying to close the Red Sea.

Edit: And on ther other hand Iran issuing fairly threatening comments about any protesters (basically saying they'll be treated as enemies and the security forces will shoot) and reports of checkpoints in Tehran and on major roads.

[Legbiter]

NEW — Korean media published an image from today, showing the US dismantling its THAAD and Patriot systems from S-Korea, to send to the Middle East.

They're trying to plug the gap in coverage since Iran took out several such systems. The US made twelve (12) THAAD interceptors last year. The russians or the Chinese will spot these immediately and given Tehran the coordinates.