US - Greenland Crisis Thread

[crazy canuck]

Is that the time Trump said people only defend what they own, so the US needs to own Greenland because it should be defended?

[Jacob]

Yeah I think that's the same thing.

[Admiral Yi]

Surreal. Not helping credibility of our states.

They're not there to defeat an invasion militarily. They're there to raise the stakes of a PR stunt by Trump. They're a youtube tripwire.

[The Brain]

I'd hope you're right, but absent NATO what's the difference between the baltics states and Ukraine? This is nowhere my area of expertise so there are probably key differences I just don't personally know what they are

I'm not sure what you mean by "absent NATO". I think what's under consideration is Baltics + local allies, where I think they have a pretty good chance. The Baltics on their own will likely be hooped if facing off against Russia by themselves.

But I expect enough European allies will take their NATO and EU defense commitments serious enough that that's not going to be the case, even if the US bails.

The whole thing was about NATO being dead. That NATO will be absent if it's dead seems reasonable.

[The Brain]

FWIW I think going to war with the US over Greenland is unlikely to be wise. I think rump NATO should focus on defense against Russia. It's surrender if you will, but Denmark surrendered to Germany in 1940 and I think that was the wise thing to do. In the face of overwhelming military aggression by countries like the US and Nazi Germany there are no easy choices.

Hopefully the US won't invade Greenland, but with countries like Russia and the US you have to assume the worst.

[Jacob]

When you mean "go to war", where do you draw the line?

Is leaving a tripwire force there and instructing them to fight back until they are forced to surrender "going to war" and thus unwise in your view?

[Zoupa]

It depends what you mean by leverage, since Trump is kind of a sociopath and doesn't respond to normal social cues and pressure.

Generic leverage.  Something that  would cause him to alter what he would otherwise do.

I think Minnesotans have leverage since a pretty big majority of the state's citizens disagree with ICE's methods. Strikes, civil disobedience, protests, violence are all potential options to confront Trump's agenda and make him back down.

I think Greenland/Denmark/EU partners have leverage in terms of economic retaliation, military escalation and US public opinion to confront Trump's agenda and make him back down.

Of course as I mentioned I think your president is unhinged, suffering from dementia and is a narcissistic sociopath so who knows if he views any of this as leverage.

[The Brain]

When you mean "go to war", where do you draw the line?

Is leaving a tripwire force there and instructing them to fight back until they are forced to surrender "going to war" and thus unwise in your view?

Publicly say that a state of war exists, sending reinforcements to Greenland to fight back, taking US military personnel in Denmark prisoner, that type of thing.

[Legbiter]

The indications from France and Sweden are that the contingents they are sending right now are just advance teams to coordinate with the Danes and prep for the arrival of additional forces.  I assume it's similar for others.

Yeah those are liaison and logistics officers who will scout out locations and based on their recommendations a force package will be put together. It's not about cramming 50.000 Canadian and European arctic troops into Nuuk by next week. The number of different countries is meant to be symbolic though, to show that Denmark is not alone in repelling any hostile aggression by...China and russia. These will be followed by land, sea and air assets. Some kind of rotating system among the allies for all domains will be set up. Greenland will have anti-ship missiles, aircraft, sub patrols and land forces. Hell, bring in a dedicated Ukrainian drone team or two and have them train in that enviornment.

[Sheilbh]

It feels like Trump's government has become a revolving series of "let's manufacture a crisis to take attention away from the last crisis we manufactured"

I think this is maybe a bit too political and it might be true of the political parts of Trump's administration.

But I think for Trump it's entertainment. It's reality TV and ratings. I always think of that line in the Zelensky meeting: "this is going to be great television". I don't think it's manufacture a crisis to take attention away. I think for Trump, the job as President in the entertainment-political complex is to keep storylines going, kill the ones that don't work, create new ones to score good ratings and make great TV.

(In part I think this is why Vance and someone like DeSantis struggle - because they're political debate team nerds who want to win the arguments - while a significant part of what Trump's offering isn't a political product but an entertainment one.)

Though I guess the Minnesota thing is about swinging the scales for the midterms - whether it's to gin up his supporters (look we're repressing the people who need repressing), to justify election interference, or to move the Overton window on using violence against political opponents.

Yeah I think flood blue cities with ICE and federal coercive forces, provoking a response from blue cities to justify the flooding of them with the coercive wing of the state absolutely plays into this and into a voter suppression strategy.

I think Trump will probably lose the mid-terms quite badly because the Trump-ish GOP lose elections when Trump isn't on the ballot. But I think there is also a playbook here forwider voter suppression.

[Legbiter]

FWIW I think going to war with the US over Greenland is unlikely to be wise.

Just showing you're not a low-hanging fruit that an adversary can pluck by a planeload of SOF for 1 weekend of jingoistic sugar rush social media cycle is very worthwhile.

I think rump NATO should focus on defense against Russia. It's surrender if you will, but Denmark surrendered to Germany in 1940 and I think that was the wise thing to do.

The quick 1940 surrender was made inevitable in my view by the absolutely retarded Danish defense policies of the 1930's where it was consciously decided that by declaring neutrality and being as powerless as possible that it would make a potential adversary decide you were no threat and hence you'd be left alone. All it did was make the Danes look like easy pickings. No, the Nordics should go to the Finnish model plus a Swedish nuclear deterrent in a military Kalmar Union coalition in my opinion. 

[Maladict]

Hopefully the US won't invade Greenland, but with countries like Russia and the US you have to assume the worst.

It seems to be unusually unpopular across the board with politicians and the general public alike. At this point some things may still be beyond the pale.

[The Brain]

FWIW I think going to war with the US over Greenland is unlikely to be wise.

Just showing you're not a low-hanging fruit that an adversary can pluck by a planeload of SOF for 1 weekend of jingoistic sugar rush social media cycle is very worthwhile.

I think rump NATO should focus on defense against Russia. It's surrender if you will, but Denmark surrendered to Germany in 1940 and I think that was the wise thing to do.

The quick 1940 surrender was made inevitable in my view by the absolutely retarded Danish defense policies of the 1930's where it was consciously decided that by declaring neutrality and being as powerless as possible would make a potential adversary decide you were no threat and hence you'd be left alone. All it did was make the Danes look like easy pickings. No, the Nordics should go to the Finnish model plus a Swedish nuclear deterrent in a military Kalmar Union coalition in my opinion. 

I agree that military strength is vital and needs to be greatly improved, but I don't think there will be time for that. And since we've had stupid defense policies in the non-Finnish Nordics for decades, we might be in the same inevitability.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

Greenland will have anti-ship missiles

Saab is ready.

[The Brain]

It says "Don't push here". What if the enemy cunningly does just that?