What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[DGuller]

Rumour going around that trump made 400k by betting on Maduro getting kidnapped.

Props to him for making the prediction market more efficient.

[Jacob]

So from your point of view the affordability crisis is not really a thing?

I would need a workable definition of thing before I an answer.

Fair.

What I'm really wondering is what you think drives the current sentiments we hear about the affordability crisis (that there is one and that it's a big deal), if inflation is actually low?

Are there actual economic realities behind it separate from inflation, or is there something else that drives the narrative?

To be transparent - I don't have a strong opinion on the issue and no real understanding of how real or not real the affordability crisis is in the US.

My reddit feed has a semi-steady stream of articles with headlines with "'I Can't Afford This' Trump Voters in Rural America Stunned as Cost of Living Keeps Rising" and I'm wondering how real it is beyond the anecdote.

[Admiral Yi]

Before that is there a situation where you'd agree theres an affordability crisis?

Sure. A case like Canada's housing market (which I haven't heard about in a while  ) where the price to income ratio rises dramatically and stays I would  call a housing affordability crisis.  Or problem and not crisis.  What makes something a crisis?

[HVC]

A problem effects someone else, a crisis effects me


As for the housing crisis, ar least in Toronto, it's still a thing. Mainly for older condos and houses. The new build condo market kind of collapsed,  but thats more because they were (are) being built tiny and shittily for the resale and Airbnb market and that segment fell off a cliff.

[Admiral Yi]

Fair.

What I'm really wondering is what you think drives the current sentiments we hear about the affordability crisis (that there is one and that it's a big deal), if inflation is actually low?

Are there actual economic realities behind it separate from inflation, or is there something else that drives the narrative?

To be transparent - I don't have a strong opinion on the issue and no real understanding of how real or not real the affordability crisis is in the US.

My reddit feed has a semi-steady stream of articles with headlines with "'I Can't Afford This' Trump Voters in Rural America Stunned as Cost of Living Keeps Rising" and I'm wondering how real it is beyond the anecdote.

To be blunt I think it's Democratic fake news. CNN and NPR hunt down some anecdotes, avoid quanitifying it, and call it a thing.

[mongers]

Fair.

What I'm really wondering is what you think drives the current sentiments we hear about the affordability crisis (that there is one and that it's a big deal), if inflation is actually low?

Are there actual economic realities behind it separate from inflation, or is there something else that drives the narrative?

To be transparent - I don't have a strong opinion on the issue and no real understanding of how real or not real the affordability crisis is in the US.

My reddit feed has a semi-steady stream of articles with headlines with "'I Can't Afford This' Trump Voters in Rural America Stunned as Cost of Living Keeps Rising" and I'm wondering how real it is beyond the anecdote.

To be blunt I think it's Democratic fake news. CNN and NPR hunt down some anecdotes, avoid quanitifying it, and call it a thing.

Were you just quoting trump or have you jumped on the 'fake news' intellectual bandwagon?

[Admiral Yi]

Were you just quoting trump or have you jumped on the 'fake news' intellectual bandwagon?

I need a definition of fake news intellectual bandwagon.

[DGuller]

"Fake news" was a concept before Trump adopted it.  In fact, he probably adopted it to neuter the original legitimate meaning, which became popularized when discussing fake content on Facebook and the likes that impacted the 2016 election.

[Tamas]

Were you just quoting trump or have you jumped on the 'fake news' intellectual bandwagon?

I need a definition of fake news intellectual bandwagon.

I need a definition of definition.

[Admiral Yi]

I need a definition of definition.

Why?

[grumbler]

To be blunt I think it's Democratic fake news. CNN and NPR hunt down some anecdotes, avoid quanitifying it, and call it a thing.

Was it Republican fake news when they ran on affordability in the 2024 election?

[Zoupa]

I need a definition of definition.

Why?

Why not?

[DGuller]

One constant in politics we have to be aware of is that half the people believe that unemployment numbers don't measure real unemployment, and inflation figures don't measure real inflation.  Which half depends on who's in power, but I remember it going back to George W. bush times at least.  That doesn't mean that there will never be a time when those beliefs are true, but one has to approach them with critical thinking.

[The Minsky Moment]

I listened to an NPR story about affordability and it seems like nothing more than an attempt to complain about inflation while inflation is low.

You'll need to define what you mean by "low".  CPI has been hovering between 2.7 to 3.0 percent since June.  That is above the Fed target rate of 2%.  Three percent inflation is generally not considered low by 21st century standards.

If by "low" you mean well below historically high rates in a broader sense like the 70s-era inflations, than yes it is low.  It was also low and declining in 2024 by that standard and yet Biden lost the election on that issue.  So "low" doesn't always translate into low in public perception.

Public perception is driven by several decades of historically low inflation rates which set expectations and then the shock of the COVID exit price level increase.  Public perceptions are that "prices are high" and thus moderate levels of continued price increases aren't reassuring.  Trump did himself no favors by overpromising that he would bring prices down, which was not going to be in the cards.

Public perception is likely not impacted by Trump's leaning on the Fed to lower rates, but that is a serious concern which does raise the risk of future inflation.  The US economy is now in a race between what will happen first: inflation driven by loose monetary + fiscal policy + massive private investment boom OR a crash if the AI investment bubble pops.

[The Minsky Moment]

One constant in politics we have to be aware of is that half the people believe that unemployment numbers don't measure real unemployment, and inflation figures don't measure real inflation.  Which half depends on who's in power, but I remember it going back to George W. bush times at least.  That doesn't mean that there will never be a time when those beliefs are true, but one has to approach them with critical thinking.

That's true but part of it is understanding what these things measure and what they don't. Inflation measures the degree of increase in prices over a particular period but not the overall price level.  The impact of a large price level jump can take some time to be absorbed.  If people feel squeezed because of a high price level, they won't necessarily be reassured because prices only went up 2.5% annualized last month.

Unemployment measures the number of actively seeking workers who couldn't get jobs. It doesn't measure demoralized people who stopped looking for work because it seemed hopeless.  It doesn't measure the quality of jobs on offer or whether people are in jobs they think commensurate or appropriate to their skills.  It doesn't measure people who went back to school because they couldn't find work. It doesn't measure a spouse who decided to focus on home making because the jobs on offer were so poor.  It doesn't measure reduced opportunities for promotion, or reduced hours available or worse employment terms.  It doesn't measure lots of things people care about re the job market.