The Population Decline Thread

[crazy canuck]

We are not talking about segments of the population; we are talking about fertility rates generally.  And it is accurate to say that fertility rates have declined for the reason I stated.

You said that alone explains the drop in fertility rates. That is one factor, but I don't think it alone explains the entire phenomenon. I do not think that is accurate.

That alone can explain why ferality rates have dropped.  And as I said in my post that you objected to, there are also other explanations that are not covered in the article.  I am not sure what you are arguing about.

One of other main factors is the one Sheilbh has already identified, and that is the drop in infant mortality.  You may have noticed that I covered that in my original post when I said children had never been more healthy.

I really don't know why you are arguing with me.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

We have these "Great replacement" people

Yeah. But there is not going to be a replacement. Birth rates are tanking everywhere.

ongoing mass migration and lack of assimilation makes your statement moot.
And no, I don't think it's a conspiracy. Our politicians are too dumb and cowardly for that.
It's age old and usually not beneficial for the receiving population, regardless of era. It won't be this time either.

[Valmy]

We have these "Great replacement" people

Yeah. But there is not going to be a replacement. Birth rates are tanking everywhere.

ongoing mass migration and lack of assimilation makes your statement moot.
And no, I don't think it's a conspiracy. Our politicians are too dumb and cowardly for that.
It's age old and usually not beneficial for the receiving population, regardless of era. It won't be this time either.

Well as those countries empty out and are filled with 60 year olds that will not be a problem for long.

Like the United State is terrified of Mexicans overrunning us. Mexico. With a birthrate of 1.6. LOL. They are barely going to fill Mexico for long. All those cheap immigrant workers we exploit? Won't be here in a generation or two, no matter how pro immigrant our politicians are.

[Josquius]

Yeah this is an annoying thing the far right just don't get.
You saw it all the time around brexit. This insistence 500 million foreigners were going to move to Britain any second....
They seem to have trouble thinking of other countries as places in their own right with their own ups and downs. The homeland is the only actual PC in their view.

[Norgy]

Norway, quite honestly, would not be the affluent society it is without immigrants. While certain groups, like Somalis, have proven a burden, most others have not.

I looked back in the archives of my newspaper.
"First negro in Gjøvik". Now there is a headline that would sit well today.

Before the Yugoslavian civil war, we only had three waves of immigration. All helpful, I would say. Hungarians in 1956, Pakistani "guest workers" in the 70s, and Swedes when shit hit the fan after the "Moderaterna" took over.
There's always been some inter-Nordic emigration and immigration.

I took one of these gene tests on MyHeritage.

The colossal amount of -once-removed in the US, South Africa, Sweden, Australia and Canada amazed me. I tracked down my mum's line mostly. One was a GOP representative in Florida. I decided it was time to get out of the rabbit hole.

I have one prediction, and that is that climate change will alter this. People will be standing in line to come to our rainy, cold, icy and sometimes shitty countries.

In the EU games, Norway always lacks manpower. We still do.

[crazy canuck]

I think it is the other way around, climate change will further slow the warm current that keeps your country habitable.

The North West bit of North America is the sweet spot you are looking for

[Valmy]

I have one prediction, and that is that climate change will alter this. People will be standing in line to come to our rainy, cold, icy and sometimes shitty countries.

The polar vortex will be disrupted along with the gulf stream. I think Europe will freeze under global warming, especially the northern part.

[Jacob]

I think it is the other way around, climate change will further slow the warm current that keeps your country habitable.

The North West bit of North America is the sweet spot you are looking for

Yeah. Saw a piece recently in Danish media that the (whatever it's called) Atlantic current that keeps Denmark (and other bits of Europe) warm is much closer to collapse than previous research indicated.

[Valmy]

I think it is the other way around, climate change will further slow the warm current that keeps your country habitable.

The North West bit of North America is the sweet spot you are looking for

Yeah. Saw a piece recently in Danish media that the (whatever it's called) Atlantic current that keeps Denmark (and other bits of Europe) is much closer to collapse than previous research indicated.

The Gulf Stream. We even made a ridiculous movie about this called the Day After Tomorrow. The one where UK aircraft fall out of the sky because their fuel freezes mid flight.

[Jacob]

The Gulf Stream. We even made a ridiculous movie about this called the Day After Tomorrow. The one where UK aircraft fall out of the sky because their fuel freezes mid flight.

No, not the Gulf Stream, but (apparently, I just looked it up) the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (also known as AMOC). It's connected to the Gulf Stream, but is distinct - or maybe AMOC is the name for the larger system that includes the Gulf Stream? I don't know. My main point is that it's AMOC I couldn't remember, not the Gulf Stream.

I think this image shows the connection:

[Jacob]

Yeah, to follow up - the Gulf Stream is a component part of AMOC: https://www.whoi.edu/ocean-learning-hub/ocean-topics/how-the-ocean-works/ocean-circulation/amoc/

[Grey Fox]

You can also see why Eastern North America is so cold.

[crazy canuck]

I think it is the other way around, climate change will further slow the warm current that keeps your country habitable.

The North West bit of North America is the sweet spot you are looking for

Yeah. Saw a piece recently in Danish media that the (whatever it's called) Atlantic current that keeps Denmark (and other bits of Europe) is much closer to collapse than previous research indicated.

The Gulf Stream. We even made a ridiculous movie about this called the Day After Tomorrow. The one where UK aircraft fall out of the sky because their fuel freezes mid flight.

The difference is that back then the slowing of the current was a hypothetical that might happen one day.

A recently published paper has concluded it has been slowing for some time and will continue to slow as a result of climate change.  As a result the cold water zone South of Greenland will likely grow.

Here is the paper if you would like to read it

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02403-0

[Valmy]

Just to clarify even back in 2004 I did not doubt the temperate north could freeze under global warming, what was ridiculous was the disaster movie nature of it.

[Jacob]

You can also see why Eastern North America is so cold.

Yeah.

I did a quick search for equivalent studies of potential impacts on Pacific current systems, but didn't find anything. Everything I came across was focused on rising water levels and soil erosion, which seems less intense than drastic changes in average temperatures and precipitation.

I wonder what the outlook is here out West?