The Population Decline Thread

[Jacob]

I still don't understand why I am supposed to be worried about this when for most of my life I was supposed to be worried about overpopulation. Either the decline forecast is inaccurate because the overpopulation one is still valid, or if the latter is indeed now invalid, then confidence in the population decline one can't be high at all considering how the overpopulation one ended up being bogus.

The overpopulation worries were always "if trends continue as they are now, we'll be on track for [over population]; if we use resources as we do now, some of [these consequences] are likely...." Whether you should have been worried or not is kind of up to you. If you were, it might have been a waste since trends did not continue as they were.

On the flip side, shrinking populations could spell trouble in a number of ways - much less leisure time and longer work lives for the young to support the old or conversely a much lower standard of living for the old as they get less individually from the productivity of the younger population. There are also some economic bits about pension funds, interest, the stock market, and capitalism in general as the conditions for making money are different in shrinking markets and economies than in growing ones.

Should you be worried or not, I don't know. But I find it interesting to try to understand what might happen.

[Norgy]

Last time I bothered to check, Italy is rock bottom at 0.7 or something and marry late.
Norway's sort of saved by immigrants having more children. The population has risen by a cool million since I was in middle-school. Granted, that was just after the Black Death.

[Legbiter]

But I did my part.

Yeah same. My 3 sisters and me have 10 children in total between us.

Yeah depopulation is a concern and in Europe it's not going to be solved by non-Western migroids because they are in large part unemployable low-human capital and just further burden social services. Maybe the state should melt you into biofuel if you reach 65 years of age without having had at least 3 children.

[crazy canuck]

Parents have never had so much leisure time ...

Leisure choice, sure. Time, no way.

Back when I was a kid only a minority of women worked. What one member of the family once did, now has to be split between both parents, on top of their jobs plus commute.
Letting the kids roam the streets is no longer acceptable, either. Which is how my dad was raised even as part of the upper-middle class in the 60s.

There is no doubt that many women worked in the home, but I think the point you were missing is that those women really did work in the home. They actually did all the cooking. They actually did all the cleaning etc etc etc.  And here's the key point they actually did all of those things without any of the conveniences that create leisure time now.

Just the day-to-day tasks of doing the dishes, laundry, and cooking are so much easier and less time consuming now.

If there is a person who stays home now, they have so much more free time than their counterpart. I've only 30 or 40 years ago.

The argument that it's harder to have children now to my ears simply ridiculous when I remember how hard my parents and grandparents had it.


As her children going out and playing on their own, yes, I made that point here many times.  And one of the reasons we did that is because our parents were busy doing other things they had no time to see our entertainment.


Parents are not forced to become hover craft around their children.  That is an unfortunate consequence of parents now having far more leisure time.

[Valmy]

Parents are not forced to become hover craft around their children.  That is an unfortunate consequence of parents now having far more leisure time.

Well there is also a ton of social pressure and expectations that you hover craft around your kids these days.

[Jacob]

If it's not more difficult to have children, why are birthrates dropping then? Because people have it too good?

[Norgy]

There have been studies showing sperm quality decline in many men.

Anyway, I am past 50, I am not going to contribute.
Coaching my little girl's soccer team at 65? Don't think so.

[HVC]

There have been studies showing sperm quality decline in many men.

Anyway, I am past 50, I am not going to contribute.
Coaching my little girl's soccer team at 65? Don't think so.

If thats the cause then that assumes an epidemic of people trying to have kids that can't. At least in my peer group those that want kids do, but most only want one.

[crazy canuck]

If it's not more difficult to have children, why are birthrates dropping then? Because people have it too good?

Not people in general - but it is well documented that as women become more successful in the business and professional worlds, they tend to put pregnancy off until later.  That alone explains the drop in fertility rates.

And btw, that is exactly why the MAGA proponents are all about women giving up their careers - to have babies.

There are other factors too of course.  But the piece you posted doesn't explore them.

[Valmy]

If it's not more difficult to have children, why are birthrates dropping then? Because people have it too good?

Not people in general - but it is well documented that as women become more successful in the business and professional worlds, they tend to put pregnancy off until later.  That alone explains the drop in fertility rates.

And btw, that is exactly why the MAGA proponents are all about women giving up their careers - to have babies.

There are other factors too of course.  But the piece you posted doesn't explore them.

This is just not true. Birth rates among the poorly educated are also rapidly dropping.

[crazy canuck]

Its not true that the birth rate has dropped as women have become more affluent and better educated.

I would certainly like to see that stats that back up your argument.

[Sheilbh]

If it's not more difficult to have children, why are birthrates dropping then? Because people have it too good?

Yeah I think there's different things going on in different places that are playing out in the same way which makes it tough to work out. I think the access to property/a family home is a huge issue for some rich countries like the UK or Canada with very high property prices. I think there's other shifts in Europe and the straightforward childcare/pro-natalist policies that would be a nice explanation don't really seem to work when we look at Europe.

But I think globally the single biggest factor is increased control for women through growth in female literacy and access to birth control.

My understanding is that it's one of the biggest indicators (I think the single biggest indicator is female literacy) in average family size in a country. I think it's also self-reinforcing so improved literacy and control over fertility allows women more options, while reducing class sizes and improving education for the generation coming up.

Similarly there's a very clear correlation between prevalence of contraception and birthrate - and the ability to access birth control is massively increased with women's literacy.

I also think improvements in child mortality has an impact. As recently as the 80s the child mortality rate in low in come countries was over 20% and in lower middle-income countries over 15%. Those figures are now down to about 6% and 4% respectively which is a fantastic achievement - but there are still areas with higher infant mortality rates and higher birth rates accompany it.

[Valmy]

Its not true that the birth rate has dropped as women have become more affluent and better educated.

I would certainly like to see that stats that back up your argument.

What is not true is this:

Not people in general - but it is well documented that as women become more successful in the business and professional worlds, they tend to put pregnancy off until later.  That alone explains the drop in fertility rates.

That certainly might explain a drop in fertility rates in certain countries. But one all the way around the world? And up and down the economic ladder? And the extent they are dropping? No. It does not explain the drop in fertility rates.

[crazy canuck]

Its not true that the birth rate has dropped as women have become more affluent and better educated.

I would certainly like to see that stats that back up your argument.

What is not true is this:

Not people in general - but it is well documented that as women become more successful in the business and professional worlds, they tend to put pregnancy off until later.  That alone explains the drop in fertility rates.

That certainly might explain a drop in fertility rates in certain countries. But one all the way around the world? And up and down the economic ladder? And the extent they are dropping? No. It does not explain the drop in fertility rates.

We are not talking about segments of the population; we are talking about fertility rates generally.  And it is accurate to say that fertility rates have declined for the reason I stated.

[Valmy]

We are not talking about segments of the population; we are talking about fertility rates generally.  And it is accurate to say that fertility rates have declined for the reason I stated.

You said that alone explains the drop in fertility rates. That is one factor, but I don't think it alone explains the entire phenomenon. I do not think that is accurate.