Quo Vadis, Democrats?

[Josquius]

Lest we forget too, turnout rather sucked last election.

It was the second-highest turnout of the last half-century.

I said it sucked, not that it was low :p

It was down on last time, especially amongst key groups.

[DGuller]

I think the fatal problem for Democrats is that it doesn't seem like they can afford to either stand for something or stand for nothing.  When they stand for something, such as socialism, identity politics, or "anti-Zionism", they alienate people even in their ranks, but standing for nothing is not a viable strategy in the current environment. 

They haven't yet found something to stand for that is good politics and good governance.  The problem is compounded by the fact that on a local level, Democrats sometimes go much farther than on a federal level, and the ones that can go the farthest can govern the least.  That poisons their brand even if Democrats on a federal level don't align with that.

I wish I knew what the solution would be, but I'm not seeing it.

[DGuller]

Lest we forget too, turnout rather sucked last election.

It was the second-highest turnout of the last half-century.

I said it sucked, not that it was low :p

It was down on last time, especially amongst key groups.

So much bad analysis of 2024 elections hinges on comparing to 2020.  It's bad analysis because 2020 was an outlier for many once-in-a-generation reasons.  If the turnout in 2024 was the highest except for one incredibly exception year, than insufficient turnout wasn't the reason.  If anything, the turnout was probably too high for those who didn't want to see Trump get elected, it seems like the marginal voters were more likely to go for Trump.

[viper37]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/politics/democratic-party-voter-registration-crisis.html?unlocked_article_code=1.f08.H1tk.J1QvbeOB_aff&smid=url-share

Here is a gifted link to the NYTimes article that is source of the information in Viper's link

Much better.  Thank you!

[The Minsky Moment]

If polling data was accurate Trump would not have been elected.

The problem isn't the accuracy of polling data, it's the accuracy of interpretations of the data.
Pre-election, the polling data indicated it could either way. The gallup data shows a sharp drop of "independent" support for the Democrats in the month preceding election day.

[Sheilbh]

I also think, and not for the first time, people slightly memed themselves into believing an outcome was nailed on while the evidence was that it was very tight. And there was a clear shift in momentum from the start of Harris campaign to the end.

On the registration numbers - I'd add fundraising. But I think this is why I slightly bang on about it in this thread but at this point I think the Democrats priority needs to be acknowledging how bad their position is and making sure they have party builders in the key positions. I'm not sure they're doing either.

[crazy canuck]

If polling data was accurate Trump would not have been elected.

The problem isn't the accuracy of polling data, it's the accuracy of interpretations of the data.
Pre-election, the polling data indicated it could either way. The gallup data shows a sharp drop of "independent" support for the Democrats in the month preceding election day.

Ok, if the interpretation of the polling data had proven correct, Trump would not have won either time 

The point being that data about the falling registration of Dem voters is highly problematic, and staking your hopes on independents voting for Dem candidates seems a bad, or at least a risky proposition.

[The Minsky Moment]

The numbers are the numbers.  My hopes have nothing to do with it.

[celedhring]

Polling data for Democrats just before the election wasn't good at all. It was even predicting Trump's popular vote win, which many (including myself) felt it was wrong.

So the polling data was fine.

[crazy canuck]

The numbers are the numbers.  My hopes have nothing to do with it.

Exactly, and the cold hard numbers show that registered dem voters are becoming an endangered species.  Best not try to hand wave it away.

[Valmy]

The numbers are the numbers.  My hopes have nothing to do with it.

Exactly, and the cold hard numbers show that registered dem voters are becoming an endangered species.  Best not try to hand wave it away.

It can't be hand waived away. The constant anti-Democrat propaganda (and a combination of timidness, incompetence, and just bad luck) of the past several decades is hard to overcome. And recently the increasing unpopularity of Israel I think is also a weight around the Dems necks.

Fortunately in the short term, the opposition is so shitty it won't matter: https://news.gallup.com/poll/692978/democrats-regain-advantage-party-affiliation.aspx

...but it needs to be addressed for any long term success. The script is really predictable now: The Democrats will win big and then the country will turn against them and put the fascists back in power. It is so inevitable it feels like it already happened.

Which is why I think the Democrats need to change and offer bold solutions, instead of timidly flailing about trying to align themselves with whatever is popular, that is clearly not working at actually making them popular. The people want hope for a better tomorrow, promising more of the same and trying to convince them their current shitty circumstances are good is not going to work,

[Valmy]

Polling data for Democrats just before the election wasn't good at all. It was even predicting Trump's popular vote win, which many (including myself) felt it was wrong.

So the polling data was fine.

Yep. The polls were spot on. I realized this a few weeks before the election and spent those weeks coping hard, hoping wishful thinking would manifest something. But despite what the book The Secret promised, it didn't manifest shit 

[Razgovory]

I knew Trump was going to win when that bullet failed to kill him.  It's clear someone is up there is looking out for him

[Valmy]

Holy shit that is amazing Raz

I agree that failed assassination attempt was bad bad news for the United States 

[Josquius]

Given the shooter was a Republican, it is ripe for conspiracies. A sort of anti-Kennedy.