Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Tamas]

On China, the thought just occurred to me: do we know if China is loaning money to Russia? I am thinking (dreading) a scenario similar to what the USA faced in WW1 - having the Entente lose the war would had meant a lot of money lost due to all the loans given out to Allied countries.

[Sheilbh]

Russia deficit and national debt is very low. They built up a lot of reserves pre-war which help on that front, but fundamentally they export oil and gas and there are still willing buyers (even if it has to be laundered through third countries which increases costs and has a take).

But so far Russia has built a war economy without full mobilisation (where there'd be more unrpedictable economic, social and political consequences for the regime). I don't think it's comparable to the British or French in WW1 (who had, in turn, both been providing loans to the Russians).

[Bauer]

That's very much dire circumstances if Russias war economy is sustainable.  They have a weapon democracies can never match:  not giving a damn about their own citizens prosperity.

[Sheilbh]

Sustainable-ish.

It's seriously distorting their economy and there are reasons to think that 2026 will be a year when it becomes a lot more difficult on various fronts, including economically. But there are very competent technocrats in the Russian state, like Nabiulina, who have adapted the state to the war.

[Bauer]

Have there ever been any details leaked  about demands in peace negotiations?  I'm curious what Ukraine is willing to give up, I mean nobody wants it to happen but the best thing for their people is to give up land and be able to rebuild an economy/defense integrated with the west.

But probably no matter what they concede, Putin would just interpret as weakness.  Doesn't seem to be any end in sight of this madness.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The demands of rusdia are still the same: complete surrender and nato retreats to 1991 borders

[Tamas]

Putin Just talked about cutting military spending in the coming years. It's either complete BS he felt he had to say to placate worrying people at home, or going ahead of future criticism when he is forced to cut back because of a failing economy.

It took 4 years of naval blockade combined with a war much bigger in scale to bring Imperial Germany to its knees. Give it time.

[Legbiter]

Putin Just talked about cutting military spending in the coming years. It's either complete BS he felt he had to say to placate worrying people at home, or going ahead of future criticism when he is forced to cut back because of a failing economy.

It took 4 years of naval blockade combined with a war much bigger in scale to bring Imperial Germany to its knees. Give it time.

My prediction is 2 more years of conventional warfare. Then the pool of marginal males outside of Petersburg and Moscow willing to go eat a drone for the bonus will finally have been tapped. Then Putin has to decide on whether or not to conduct a general mobilization. 

The Russian summer offensive looks DOA, massive casualties for 3 villages of 20 people. The much more worrying thing is the stepped up city-buster strategy. Apparently both America and Europe can only produce artisanal quantities of Patriot interceptors.

[Sheilbh]

Have there ever been any details leaked  about demands in peace negotiations?  I'm curious what Ukraine is willing to give up, I mean nobody wants it to happen but the best thing for their people is to give up land and be able to rebuild an economy/defense integrated with the west.

Not that I'm aware of from Ukraine - and it is the sort of honest, candid conversation that Ukraine's friends (like France, the UK, maybe Germany under Merz etc - not the more ambiguous ones like the US) should quietly behaving with Ukraine on what a settlement may look like and how support for Ukraine fits into it in more detailed, operational ways than the rather airy declarations we've had so far.

But probably no matter what they concede, Putin would just interpret as weakness.  Doesn't seem to be any end in sight of this madness.

I think the key point on this is that I think Putin really deeply, in his bones, does not believe Ukraine exists. He does not believe they're a nation with an identity, or a country capable of agency. It is all Western money, arms, guidance, propaganda. Ironically Ukraine's ability to defend itself is actually further proof of why the war is necessary as it demonstrates how powerful Western influence has become so close to Russia.

[Josquius]

Putin Just talked about cutting military spending in the coming years. It's either complete BS he felt he had to say to placate worrying people at home, or going ahead of future criticism when he is forced to cut back because of a failing economy.

It took 4 years of naval blockade combined with a war much bigger in scale to bring Imperial Germany to its knees. Give it time.

My prediction is 2 more years of conventional warfare. Then the pool of marginal males outside of Petersburg and Moscow willing to go eat a drone for the bonus will finally have been tapped. Then Putin has to decide on whether or not to conduct a general mobilization. 

The Russian summer offensive looks DOA, massive casualties for 3 villages of 20 people. The much more worrying thing is the stepped up city-buster strategy. Apparently both America and Europe can only produce artisanal quantities of Patriot interceptors.

There is a lot of work going into cheaper AA. The ridiculous cost of patriot has long been a problem with it that makes it non viable in a serious war.
Really sucks for now in Ukraine but I have fingers crossed we get some big breakthroughs in this space. I've heard a lot of small scale developments.

[Legbiter]

There is a lot of work going into cheaper AA. The ridiculous cost of patriot has long been a problem with it that makes it non viable in a serious war.
Really sucks for now in Ukraine but I have fingers crossed we get some big breakthroughs in this space. I've heard a lot of small scale developments.

Yeah the boutique nature of Western arms plus the drone revolution are major obstacles to clear if NATO wants to credibly deter russia from any article 5 testing.

Also the Chinese will always prop the russian state because they are a very useful distraction.