Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Legbiter]

Andrey Badalov, the vice-president of Transneft fell out of a window and died.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Wang Yi apparently stated to Von Der Leyen that china can't afford a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

If true we're basically at war, if undeclared and only via proxy. But this isn't going to get any better anytime soon.

And a Ukrainian defeat is thus not unlikely either.

[Duque de Bragança]

Andrey Badalov, the vice-president of Transneft fell out of a window and died.

He lived in the 10th floor yet fell to his death from the 17th.  Telegram source

https://t.me/bazabazon/38885

Official Russian media such as TASS say suicide.

https://t.me/tass_agency/323767

[crazy canuck]

Those pesky unsafe Russian windows again eh

[Josquius]

Wang Yi apparently stated to Von Der Leyen that china can't afford a Russian defeat in Ukraine.

If true we're basically at war, if undeclared and only via proxy. But this isn't going to get any better anytime soon.

And a Ukrainian defeat is thus not unlikely either.

I wonder what they mean by defeat.

Would a return to pre invasion status quo peace apply?
Or are we talking full Russian collapse and regime change?

[Jacob]

So it's a proxy war between China and the EU, with the US potentially sitting out?

That kind if sucks, but I guess it's good to know what's happening.

Makes me think that China had a hand in securing North Korean men and materiel for Putin.

[Jacob]

.. it is also a clear statement that China is an enemy of Europe.

[HVC]

Why would china care in this case? Whats the fallout if Russia loses?

[Sheilbh]

Do you have an article about it? Not seen anything about it and even in the age of Wolf Warrior diplomacy it sounds unusual.

[Jacob]

Do you have an article about it? Not seen anything about it and even in the age of Wolf Warrior diplomacy it sounds unusual.

First hit for me is a Telegraph headline: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/07/04/russia-ukraine-china-wang-yi-donald-trump-eu-europe/

[Jacob]

Though - apparently the stated rationale is that China fears if Russia loses, then the US will shift its entire focus towards conflict with China.

Which, to me, sounds like a good reason for China to step up support for Iran and other opponents of Israel given the direction the US is moving currently.

[Bauer]

Putin needs to save face somehow to get peace then, but it seems like he's not willing to accept anything but victory.

[Sheilbh]

Though - apparently the stated rationale is that China fears if Russia loses, then the US will shift its entire focus towards conflict with China.

Which, to me, sounds like a good reason for China to step up support for Iran and other opponents of Israel given the direction the US is moving currently.

Yeah - I think it's sourced from SCMP, which is a great paper. And this is the story - but it's not quite how that comment appears:

Exclusive | China tells EU it does not want to see Russia lose its war in Ukraine: sources
Wang Yi speaks of concern that US could shift whole focus in China's direction in talks with top EU diplomat Beijing
Published: 1:53am, 4 Jul 2025

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union's top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing does not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it fears the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.

The comment, to the EU's Kaja Kallas, would confirm what many in Brussels believe to be Beijing's position but jar with China's public utterances. The foreign minstry regularly says China is "not a party" to the war. Some EU officials involved were surprised by the frankness of Wang's remarks.

Wang is said to have rejected, however, the accusation that China was materially supporting Russia's war effort, financially or militarily, insisting that if it was doing so, the conflict would have ended long ago.

During a marathon four-hour debate on a wide range of geopolitical and commercial grievances, Wang was said to have given Kallas – the former Estonian prime minister who only late last year took up her role as the bloc's de facto foreign affairs chief – several "history lessons and lectures".

Some EU officials felt he was giving her a lesson in realpolitik, part of which focused on Beijing's belief that Washington will soon turn its full attention eastward, two officials said.

The wider talks - ahead of the big EU trip to China in a few weeks (I think to mark the 50th anniversary of formal EU-Chinese relations) - seem more standard. Slightly tougher statement from Kallas than VdL or Costa, but EU raising their "long-standing concerns, including economic and trade imbalances and China's responsibility to contribute to a just and lasting peace in Ukraine" but both sides should work together to strengthen the "international rules-based order and the multilateral system", on climate change, agreed on nuclear non-proliferation and welcomed de-escalation in the Middle East.

Broadly similar from China but emphasising that, in Wang's statement, China views Europe as "an important pole in a multipolar world" and that China "always supports Europe in promoting integration and is happy to see the EU strengthen its strategic autonomy and play a greater role on the international stage" - and called out "unliateralism and bullying".

[crazy canuck]

Not an unjustified fear - who knows what the US will do under this President.

[Tonitrus]

Putin needs to save face somehow to get peace then, but it seems like he's not willing to accept anything but victory.

Probably because he thinks he can get away with it.  And it appears that he will.