Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Jacob]

Sheilbh, your stats end in 2020. The article (from the Economist) deals with changes since 2023. The question, of course, is whether the short term change is just a blip or the beginning of a longer trend.

My guess is - given the tenor of the debate in the relevant countries - that it's the beginning of a trend.

Here's the article:

Politicians slashed migration. Now they face the consequences
Across the West the number of new arrivals is plummeting

LAST YEAR net migration to Britain halved. In the final quarter of 2024, 60,000 people, net, moved to Canada, down from 420,000 in mid-2023. In April net migration to America slowed to an annualised pace of 600,000, a huge drop from 4m in 2023. And in March net migration to New Zealand was down by 80% from its peak in late 2023.

Almost wherever you look, you see the same pattern. After an enormous, indeed unprecedented, rise in 2022-23, migration to the rich world is plummeting (see chart 1).



What will this mean for Western economies? Some of the decline was inevitable. The surge in part reflected "catch up" after a drop in migration during the covid-19 pandemic, when governments closed borders. Labour shortages in the post-covid economy have largely disappeared. The humanitarian crisis in Ukraine has passed its acute phase.

Yet new policies are also playing a big role. The most radical are in America, where President Donald Trump has increased surveillance of the border with Mexico, through which millions of people have passed in recent years. Now almost no one makes the journey. The Trump administration has made it harder for foreigners to obtain visas. And the number of deportation flights is currently 25% higher than a year ago, suggest data compiled by Thomas Cartwright, an independent researcher. Would-be migrants will also be deterred by high-profile raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.

America is not the only place ramping up deportations. In the final quarter of last year governments across the EU expelled 30,000 third-country nationals, some 30% more than in the previous year. In Hungary deportations have tripled; in Ireland they rose from just 80 in the last quarter of 2023 to 465 in early 2025. Policy changes elsewhere are less extreme, but still significant. Britain is introducing restrictions on would-be migrants, including stronger language requirements. Mark Carney, Canada's new prime minister, is imposing a cap on numbers.

Many politicians, and some economists, argue that high immigration drags down living standards. It depresses wages, the argument goes, and raises the cost of housing. If true, then today's declining migration should be starting to boost living standards.

The early evidence shows little sign of that, however. Having won elections promising to cut migration, politicians across the rich world will now have to deal with the consequences of actually doing so.

Consider the labour market first. Overall wage growth is declining across advanced economies, rather than rising as anti-migration types had expected (see chart 2). The unemployment rate is also inching up. In Canada it has jumped by two percentage points from its recent low, one of the worst performances of any rich country. This is not consistent with the idea that immigrants steal jobs from their hosts. Indeed, it is more plausible that some of the leaving immigrants had previously employed native workers.



We have examined American wage data, focusing on occupations where there is a high share of foreign-born workers. Such jobs include drywall installers and janitors. Even as migration has calmed, and competition for these jobs in theory declined, wage growth has weakened.

Developments in the housing market tell a similar story. It is true that across the rich world from 2022 to 2024 housing markets went bananas. Rents soared and sale prices were steady, even in the face of high interest rates. Research suggests that high immigration probably contributed to this state of affairs. A meta-analysis by William Cochrane and Jacques Poot, both of the University of Waikato, finds that a 1% increase in the migrant population of a city leads to a 0.5-1% rise in rents. J.D. Vance, America's vice-president, has drawn attention to this link.

Yet falling migration is so far not delivering cheaper housing. Rental inflation is still high, at 5% year on year in the rich world, and in recent months has fallen more slowly than overall inflation. In many of the countries where migration is falling fastest, including America and Britain, house prices are nonetheless rising quickly. The housing market's robust performance is consistent with another idea from the academic literature: though migrants may raise the cost of housing, other factors matter a lot more.

Could the benefits of more measured migration be delayed? Perhaps. But then again migrants do not just impose costs—they also raise living standards. They demand their own goods and services, lifting employment. They tend to take jobs natives do not want, allowing their hosts to move into more lucrative professions. And they are a source of labour in construction, which enables homes to be built. Having promised to toughen borders, and raise living standards, Western politicians may find themselves struggling to deliver on the second part of their vows.

[HVC]

I hate stacked graphs. Also, my NA mind always wants to split South Asia from East Asia.

[Valmy]

I assume the birth rate is screwed regardless of any incentives they can provide since the one child thing was only ended a decade ago. Not enough women.

They've changed the incentives to encourage more children, but it doesn't seem to be helping.

One thing we have learned from how the world is going is that once people get used to the concept they don't have to have big families it is very hard to convince them to do it again.

I have three kids. Yes I started late so I have less energy than some 17 year old, but doing so really stretches my emotional, mental, and physical energy as well as financial resources. But I do it because I want to, but not everybody wants this or is able to do this.

[Valmy]

Having no migrants around to build the houses can't be good for housing prices, at least for renovations and new builds 

[HVC]

Kids are also a lot more expensive in a developed economy.

[Valmy]

Kids are also a lot more expensive in a developed economy.

And produce few economic benefits for their parents 

At least not for awhile. I feel like currently I am providing some value. But it took me about 44 years.

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh, your stats end in 2020. The article (from the Economist) deals with changes since 2023. The question, of course, is whether the short term change is just a blip or the beginning of a longer trend.

My guess is - given the tenor of the debate in the relevant countries - that it's the beginning of a trend.

Ah - interesting. Maybe - I think there's definitely been some one off factors in recent years with covid, Ukraine, for the UK also Hong Kong scheme which have had a big impact. The numbers are falling now because there's fewer of those migrants and the previous government tightened the criteria for lawful migration (which the current government is going to tighten further - basically reverting to where we were pre-Johnson's big liberalisation in 2021). Like Carney's cap I think countries are tightening lawful migration (which is the vast majority of it).

I think for the tone of a debate in a destination country to have an impact I think the push factors driving migration would need to be pretty low and I'm not sure that's the case and I think it'd also take a lot to outweigh the pull factors. As a random example despite the tenor of the debate in the UK - the French government estimate that one third of all migrants entering the EU are trying to travel to the UK. I think the pull factors - language, existing diasporas, relatively open economy (and the counterpart - an available grey economy) etc. I think a lot of that probably also goes for many countries in the West. The US and Canada for everywhere, Britain and France particularly for former colonies.

A couple of caveats - on one off factors, I think we're in a structurally unstable age. I think there is more likely to be more conflict and displaced people because of it, there will be climate stress and migration caused by that, and I think the risk of global pandemics are still there. So to an extent I think those one off events might be the new normal?

Also I wonder how much of this is the spread of smartphones and internet globally. One part is that countries have points schemes - I imagine once upon a time it used to be probably a bit difficult and costly for someone from a second tier city in India, say, to go for that route if there weren't established links. Those schemes are all (as they should be) open and transparent and online and it is possibly vastly easier or anyone who is qualifying wherever they are to apply than it was 10-20 years ago.

But also on the more unlawful side I listened to a podcast a while ago with a WSJ reporter and, I think a European Politico reporter, both talking about increased unlawful Chinese migration into the US and EU. In both cases basically the route was go to neighbouring country with visa free travel (Ecuador and Serbia respectively) and then cross the border into the US/Schengen. The American route is far more common. What I found really interesting was that while it's still small numbers in the scheme of things - the route is basically really well documented on Chinese social media with TikTok guides.

Similarly I saw a thing in the Economist on how the British state is having to pay a lot more for things people are entitled to because the internet is making people far more savvy and aware of what they're entitled to. This even includes asylum claims where, again, there are TikToks on the sort of things that work at immigration tribunals.

[mongers]

But also on the more unlawful side I listened to a podcast a while ago with a WSJ reporter and, I think a European Politico reporter, both talking about increased unlawful Chinese migration into the US and EU. In both cases basically the route was go to neighbouring country with visa free travel (Ecuador and Serbia respectively) and then cross the border into the US/Schengen. The American route is far more common. What I found really interesting was that while it's still small numbers in the scheme of things - the route is basically really well documented on Chinese social media with TikTok guides.

Guillermo Galdos has done some excellent Latin/Central American reports that cover the immigration routes and a couple of times have featured Chinese immigrants and their 'odd journeys'

This one is excellent and feature one of them from 7m30s and again close to the end:
https://www.channel4.com/news/darien-gap-why-this-deadly-migrant-route-is-hell-on-earth-dubbed

Otherwise here's the rest of his Americas reports:

Guillermo Galdos Reports

[Jacob]

Vaguely apropos but not really: about 10 years ago, my wife and I met an ethnically Chinese woman who had the broadest Irish accent. She was in her late 20s/ early 30s and had to come to Vancouver from Ireland like so many other Irish people, for a working holiday.

Her story was that her parents, before she was born, had paid someone to smuggle them from China (I think Hong Kong, not sure though) to New York. Instead the boat deposited them in Dublin. They didn't tell the parents that though, instead smugglers told the parents "you're in New York now, good luck!"

So her parents had been wandering around thinking they were illegally in New York for a bit, until at some point they realized they'd been tricked. They ended up staying there and putting down roots.

[mongers]

Vaguely apropos but not really: about 10 years ago, my wife and I met an ethnically Chinese woman who had the broadest Irish accent. She was in her late 20s/ early 30s and had to come to Vancouver from Ireland like so many other Irish people, for a working holiday.

Her story was that her parents, before she was born, had paid someone to smuggle them from China (I think Hong Kong, not sure though) to New York. Instead the boat deposited them in Dublin. They didn't tell the parents that though, instead smugglers told the parents "you're in New York now, good luck!"

So her parents had been wandering around thinking they were illegally in New York for a bit, until at some point they realized they'd been tricked. They ended up staying there and putting down roots.

 

Nice story, thanks Jacob.

[Bauer]

Kids are also a lot more expensive in a developed economy.

Multiple different factors for sure.  I've seen various articles about Chinese women (but could apply to men too) not wanting children either due to working on their career or not seeing a welcoming lifestyle / cost of living ahead of them.  Ie the same as most other developed / developing countries.

I know personally with two kids I feel it's a lot of life strain.  Constantly racing to leave work on time to make it to afterschool pickup, laundry etc. My wife loves to complain about laundry, dishes, not having Nannies since she grew up in Africa and everyone decently well off can afford such things.

Eventually only robo Nannie's will be able to solve this fundamental problem.

[Syt]

Had 30+ days the whole week, reaching peak of almost 38° in Vienna today. Tomorrow it cools off with thunderstorms to "only" 29, but going over 30 again in the following days, hopefully going to low 20s later next week. The city has opened its "cooling zones" where elderly and vulnerable can come to cool off for a bit for a few hours a day.

Temperature curve of past week in the inner city:

[Josquius]

Vaguely apropos but not really: about 10 years ago, my wife and I met an ethnically Chinese woman who had the broadest Irish accent. She was in her late 20s/ early 30s and had to come to Vancouver from Ireland like so many other Irish people, for a working holiday.

Her story was that her parents, before she was born, had paid someone to smuggle them from China (I think Hong Kong, not sure though) to New York. Instead the boat deposited them in Dublin. They didn't tell the parents that though, instead smugglers told the parents "you're in New York now, good luck!"

So her parents had been wandering around thinking they were illegally in New York for a bit, until at some point they realized they'd been tricked. They ended up staying there and putting down roots.

..

This strikes me as a very very Irish story of illegal immigration.
It could be a Irish film.

[Legbiter]

Had 30+ days the whole week, reaching peak of almost 38° in Vienna today. Tomorrow it cools off with thunderstorms to "only" 29, but going over 30 again in the following days, hopefully going to low 20s later next week. The city has opened its "cooling zones" where elderly and vulnerable can come to cool off for a bit for a few hours a day.

Temperature curve of past week in the inner city:

Yeah definitely should use AC in Central Europe in commonly occupied living spaces (schools, hospitals, elderly care homes, large work places, etc) This is what regular summers will be like for the next centuries until a massive eruption in Iceland blots out agriculture for 2 years in the Northern Hemisphere.

I detest this bovine curd-chewing. Just fucking try to even show a little adaptability?

[Duque de Bragança]

Problem with A/C in non-wet and windy Europe  is that it kills humidity and gives lots of sore throats. Not good for hospitals and the rest.
(Better) insulation and blinds persianas in Castilian and Portuguese, opened in the morning and at night and closed during the day would be a good start, Southern Europe has been doing that for a long time.