Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Crazy_Ivan80]

China crossed one terawatt of installed photovoltaics now according to it's government. About half of that was built last year. Unbelievable exponential growth there. They installed 93 gigawatt in May. Which is more than half the entire photovoltaic capacity of the United States. 

Makes sense. They don't have a ton of fossil fuel resources. They want energy independence.

I hope all energy importers follow suit. That will ultimately what takes down regimes like Iran, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.

but what will take down regimes like china....

[Valmy]

but what will take down regimes like china....

They will lose the Mandate of Heaven.

[Jacob]

but what will take down regimes like china....

I think the major threats to China are:

• Getting embroiled in total war with the US before they have significant production and technological superiority.
• Getting embroiled in a long term, resource intensive conflict that drains their resources and undermines their economy (though this may not be sufficient, using Russia as an example).
• A massive disruption to their position in the international trade system (i.e. access to required resources for their production, and access to markets for their products).

In terms of inputs that China depends on... there are a number of high-tech products (we've been talking about chips recently), but they're continually moving to get more resilient there. There are resources and food, but I think their importing is pretty diversified there? And, of course, energy where like with high tech components they're moving to become more resilient.

I don't think China is as vulnerable to disruption as the petro-states are.

[Sheilbh]

I think the interesting angle of climate and regime politics in China is the interaction of local and global.

There is an energy security angle here - but that's been present since 2003 and has also involved a lot of engineering work (like belt and road) to re-orient China's dependencies to primarily overland routes it controls v American sea power. As well as its coal production and consumption which is ongoing.

But I think China is also committed to energy transition on its own terms  and for that reason. It's actually very vulnerable to a changing climate (and environmental degradation and regime stability have been recurring themes in Chinese history) - which is part of it.

But also I think part of it (as with transition to EVs) is simple quality of life and environmental standards. I think that was an area of vulnerability for the party and possible public discontent in the 2000s and 2010s. So they've adapted. I think it is a wider dynamic that's also true in most countries that most people have a general view of environmental politics as a global problem caused by carbon emissions, but the motivating factors and things most likely to get people active are the local environment - and these two things can sometimes be in tension.

[Jacob]

Yeah I think the environmental angle is real as well. I especially think so because the narratives they have around the environment all align with their self-interest:

• They are increasing energy resilience, decreasing the reliance on imports.
• They are improving the quality of life for their citizenry by improving the local environment (with many exceptions, but broadly the trend is true).
• They are driving technological innovation and moving up the value chain.
• They are demonstrating their belief in science and their ability to enact long-ranging plans, rather than sacrificing for the short term.
• They are demonstrating to the international community that they're "good global citizens", which matters in international soft power positioning.
• They are doing what they can to genuinely lower the risks from climate change in their country (even if they - like all of use - are still in trouble).

I'm not the biggest fan of the CCP, but this is an example of good policy making IMO.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah and I think there's also a geo-politics/Made in China 2025 element with a central role for China in the supply chain of key products the rest of the world is going to need for energy transition - while disrupting potential rivals.

I totally agree on the rest.

[Jacob]

Yes that as well

[Jacob]

Oh, another potential vulnerability for China is the demographic challenges from a low birthrate and little immigration.

They're obviously not the only place with that challenge, and I don't really have any idea how it'll play out - but it's definitely a point of vulnerability.

[Valmy]

The United States looked over at China and thought, "wow we would like to be vulnerable in a similar way" so we are now working on it.

[Jacob]

The United States looked over at China and thought, "wow we would like to be vulnerable in a similar way" so we are now working on it.

I had an article on immigration I wanted to share (but ran into the no new posts forum issue, and I couldn't figure out what existing thread to post it in)...

... but it's not just the US. Immigration numbers are significantly down all across the West (though only recently, it's an open question how long term it is).

[HVC]

Oh, another potential vulnerability for China is the demographic challenges from a low birthrate and little immigration.

They're obviously not the only place with that challenge, and I don't really have any idea how it'll play out - but it's definitely a point of vulnerability.

I assume the birth rate is screwed regardless of any incentives they can provide since the one child thing was only ended a decade ago. Not enough women.

[Valmy]

Oh, another potential vulnerability for China is the demographic challenges from a low birthrate and little immigration.

They're obviously not the only place with that challenge, and I don't really have any idea how it'll play out - but it's definitely a point of vulnerability.

I assume the birth rate is screwed regardless of any incentives they can provide since the one child thing was only ended a decade ago. Not enough women.

At least for awhile.

Eventually we are going to be artificially growing people or some shit.

[HVC]

Pod people bred specifically for manual labour what could go wrong?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah it'd be interesting to see - because the IOM's stats (which only runs to 2020 - so covid times) in their latest report don't indicate that for Europe:


But possibly tailing off within Northern America:


I think probably a lot of weirdness in the subsequent 5 years with covid disrupting a lot etc.

[Jacob]

I assume the birth rate is screwed regardless of any incentives they can provide since the one child thing was only ended a decade ago. Not enough women.

They've changed the incentives to encourage more children, but it doesn't seem to be helping.