The Israel-Iran War ?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

With Medvedev and Trump having a twitter feud over nukes, I remembered that Threads' pre-nuclesr strike scenes have in the background news reports of a gradually escalating American-Russian conflict in Iran.

battlefront 3 was also US-Iran veering into US-Russia, with Paris getting nuked

[Tamas]

The very good boardgame The Third World War also used an Iranian civil war in the 80s engulfing first the region then both superpowers.

[Tamas]

Iran gave advance notice of their Qatar strike and Trump spilled it thay they did. I guess that was the last time Iran played ball like that, the regime's humiliation is now complete.

[crazy canuck]

Iran gave advance notice of their Qatar strike and Trump spilled it thay they did. I guess that was the last time Iran played ball like that, the regime's humiliation is now complete.

The Iranians told the world that they gave advance notice to the Americans.  They were not trying to kill Americans. They were attacking the military installation.  It's a clever move sending the message that they did more than the Americans to preserve lifes.

It's also a good deescalation move. 

[Legbiter]

Ceasefire. Oil price almost back to normal. Iran bottled up in the mountains. Israel the undisputed regional power.

[HVC]

Iran or Israel say anything yet, or still only trump? Will he get his much coveted peace prize now?

[Bauer]

This is not the ending I expected, if it actually the ending.  Who woulda thunk it would be the Islamic republic showing restraint - unless they are really crippled at this point.

[Jacob]

Yeah I have no idea. I mean, I'm happy if they're not starting WWIII yet.

[crazy canuck]

This is not the ending I expected, if it actually the ending.  Who woulda thunk it would be the Islamic republic showing restraint - unless they are really crippled at this point.

They have shown restraint on a number of occasions.  And it's pretty easy to viewed as the reasonable one when the Americans elect someone named Trump.

[Bauer]

But now I'm back to thinking on my earlier thought, if Trump comes out of this untouched and gets rid of Irans nuclear program you'd think that will be a massive boost to the maga cult.

[crazy canuck]

Getting rid of something that does not yet exist is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence.

[Zoupa]

Iran had a concept of a plan to develop nuclear weapons.

[Razgovory]

Yeah, they built a bomb proof facility full of centrifuges 300 feet underground as a lark.   I understand you don't agree with the bombing, and don't like Trump or Netanyahu, but let's not create a new reality.  

[garbon]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdr3yxgjd6ro

With possible Iran-Israel ceasefire, Trump's high-risk strikes may pay off

US President Donald Trump took a gamble by inserting the US into the worsening conflict between Israel and Iran, but it may have paid off - at least for now.

Trump announced on Monday evening that the two countries had agreed to a ceasefire that he said could lead to a lasting peace.

If the American president has in fact ended what he labelled the "12 Day War", it would make for a significant step back from the brink of a conflict that seemed on the verge of engulfing the region, along with pulling America further in after US airstrikes hit Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday.

"Provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a statement, "we have no intention to continue our response afterwards."

It may not be called a ceasefire, but as the 04:00 deadline arrived in Tehran the Israeli attacks reportedly came to a halt. The two parties appear to be on the verge of turning down the heat.

This development comes after a tumultuous day in the region, when Iran followed through on its promise to retaliate for Saturday's US strike.

According to early reports, all the Iranian missiles directed at the massive US base in Qatar were intercepted and there were no American casualties or damage.

During his address to the nation on Saturday night, President Trump warned that there would be an overwhelming American answer to any Iranian attacks on US interests. He promised that there were more targets that could be struck by American forces if needed.

For more than 24 hours, the world waited to see what Iran would do. Once Iran had acted, attention swung back to the US president and, after a few hours, he had his first say.

"Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered," Trump posted on his social media site.

He said that Iran had gotten it out of their "system" and added that "perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region".

While the damage is reported to limited, Trump seemed inclined to hold his fire in the hope that the Iranians would be willing to negotiate in earnest. And, behind the scenes, the White House says he was talking to Qatari mediators and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to work out the details of the ceasefire.

Trump's weekend attack on Iran was a high-risk manoeuvre, but a scenario in which the pay-offs are already coming into view.

A similar dynamic played itself out in January 2020, when Trump ordered the targeted killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard leader Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.

Iran launched missiles at military bases in Iraq, injuring more than 100 American soldiers, but the US chose not to escalate. Cooler heads ultimately prevailed.

According to US media, in their latest attack on Monday, Iran fired a number of missiles at American bases equal to the total number of bombs US warplanes dropped during its weekend attack.

That, along with the advance notice Iran provided to the Qatari government prior to the launch, for which Trump said he was grateful, suggests the Iranians are seeking proportionality, not escalation.

For most of the day, Trump was more focused on the price of oil, American media coverage and a suggestion by former Russian President Dimitry Medvedev that an outside nation provide Iran with nuclear weapons.

US officials have stated that this president follows through on his threats, in contrast with some of his predecessors.

If Iran were to launch another round of attacks - and there were American deaths or significant damage - pressure would mount for Trump to respond.

For the moment, however, he is seemingly eyeing an off-ramp to more fighting and both countries appear willing to entertain it.

What was the pay off?

[The Minsky Moment]

Was the Iranian fissile material destroyed?  Anyone who has a clue isn't saying.  If it wasn't, then little of value was achieved.  If it was, the Iranian program has been hobbled, unless or until or any one of Russia, China, and/or Pakistan decides they want to help Iran develop weapons, in which case there is pretty much nothing to do.

I don't see the strategic rationale of this.  Apparently, Trump didn't either, because he opposed it until presented with the Israeli fait accompli.