The Israel-Iran War ?

[Razgovory]

Raz, if you want to discuss Gaza do it it in the thread devoted to that purpose.

I am just noting that for some people famine is acceptable for some populations but not others.  The idea that some ethnic groups are more worthy of life than others.  It seems to be a fairly popular view point.  There is probably a word for that in French or Danish.  I dunno.

[Zoupa]

I still believe the Morgenthau plan would have been better. 

No Mercy for Fascists!*

*Arabs are incapable of fascism.

What?

You wouldn't suggest a Morgenthau plan for Gaza...

Get help dude.

[HVC]

B2s have taken off from US base and are headed across the pacific. Where they stop nobody knows

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/21/world/iran-israel-trump?unlocked_article_code=1.Qk8.fIly.LcrO3yUA_yQ0&smid=nytcore-android-share

[DGuller]

Looks like we know now.

[Bauer]

So now the question is how far is this going to go?

[HVC]

He says no boots. But he says a lot of things. Some bombs going off in America or something and that probably changes quickly.

[Jacob]

So now the question is how far is this going to go?

My guess is: quite a bit farther.

Open questions in my mind:

• Absent a strong Iranian response, how far is Israel going to go?
• Absent a strong Iranian response, how far is the US going to go?
• How easy is it for Iran to strike at American military bases?

I suppose it's possible the Iranian regime will totter and fall in response to this bombing campaign, but personally I wouldn't bet on it.

This leaves me thinking that Iran will feel the need to retaliate at least semi-proportionally. If they are powerless to do so now - and it seems like they may be - it only means they'll bide their time.

My guess is we'll see Iranian-sponsored attempts at major terrorist attacks against US and Israeli targets in the not too distant future. I expect they'll have an easier time against US targets.

[Jacob]

He says no boots. But he says a lot of things. Some bombs going off in America or something and that probably changes quickly.

Yeah, the question is how willing Iran is to poke the US.

A third country registered container ship getting close to the US and launching a whole bunch of drones at targets on the American coast (say if there are any nuclear plants) seems reasonably doable in a timeframe of a few months for a country like Iran, I'd expect. The question is whether they'd be willing to provoke that kind of response.

Maybe that's not what Iran will do (or maybe it's not possible for them), but I think it'd be uncharacteristic for Iran to not try to retaliate one way or the other.

Hmmm... I wonder if they'd want to make it personal. How vulnerable are various Trump properties, family members, and interests across the globe?

[Bauer]

Another thought on my mind, what if this action actually does prove decisive and neuters Iran or even leads to regime change.  That would give Trump a massive win and could accelerate the move towards maga authoritarianism in the US...

Or if it becomes a quagmire maybe that leads to maga civil war and disintegration of the movement.

[Grey Fox]

It'd be really great to get both the end of a Theocracy and the implosion/explosion of the MAGA movement.

[Razgovory]

I still believe the Morgenthau plan would have been better. 

No Mercy for Fascists!*

*Arabs are incapable of fascism.

What?

You wouldn't suggest a Morgenthau plan for Gaza...

Get help dude.

I'm asking for help!  Why are is famine acceptable for one ethnicity and not another!  I don't understand!

[Jacob]

One more off topic post from you in this thread Raz and you're getting a ban.

[Razgovory]

So now the question is how far is this going to go?

My guess is: quite a bit farther.

Open questions in my mind:

• Absent a strong Iranian response, how far is Israel going to go?
• Absent a strong Iranian response, how far is the US going to go?
• How easy is it for Iran to strike at American military bases?

I suppose it's possible the Iranian regime will totter and fall in response to this bombing campaign, but personally I wouldn't bet on it.

This leaves me thinking that Iran will feel the need to retaliate at least semi-proportionally. If they are powerless to do so now - and it seems like they may be - it only means they'll bide their time.

My guess is we'll see Iranian-sponsored attempts at major terrorist attacks against US and Israeli targets in the not too distant future. I expect they'll have an easier time against US targets.

I think the Iranians have to respond with as much power as they can.  Failure to respond with sufficient strength left them open to attack from Israel last time.  If they don't fight back they probably won't be able to do so in the future.  For one thing their ability to strike back is being serious degraded right now.  Second, a good part of their legitimacy is based on opposing the US and Israel.  They can't just let this go on without losing their legitimacy.  I imagine they will hit US bases in the Gulf, but beyond that who knows?  We've pushed them into a corner, they are running out of things to lose.

The Iranians hallmark is terrorism, but setting up truck bombs in third countries could provoke a violent response.  Still, I wouldn't want to be in Trump tower Istanbul anytime soon.  One possibility is send commandos to attack to kill patrons of his golf club in Dubai.  Brutal, but it sends a message.

[HVC]

I don't know, hit squad seems bit more of a petulant response then one I assume they'd want to make. show of force it doesn't scream. That being said I wouldn't be on an American flight for a while. A Middle East base attack or a drone swarm like Jacob said would make more sense. Assuming they have the capability to do either. If not then I guess terrorism make more sense.

[HisMajestyBOB]

I'm actually thinking that's about it for US involvement. Trump blew some stuff up, Iran will shoot a few missiles at our bases, both sides will claim victory. Trump doesn't want to get pulled into a war, and Iran doesn't want the US to get pulled in either.

But maybe I'm just being optimistic.