The Israel-Iran War ?

[jimmy olsen]

Imagine getting owned this hard by Tucker Carlson
https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3lrttmjbhj22e

Wait, are the Magots trying to push the idea that Iran is trying to have Trump assassinated?

Cruz: "No, you don't know anything about the country. You're the one who claims they are not trying to murder Donald Trump."

Bibi threw it ouy there, probably because he knew a good slice of Trump's base wouldn't be on board.

[Grey Fox]

Didn't Biden had to warn them to stop trying to assassinnate Trump before the 2024 election?

[Razgovory]

We charged a guy in the assassination plot last year.

[Bauer]

China sends mystery transport planes to Iran

[Valmy]

Well I guess we should have thought about flying stuff to Iran.

[Admiral Yi]

Israel is running out of interceptors.

[Josephus]

Israel is running out of interceptors.

Iran may have missiles but Israel is taking out its launchers which explains why each successive Iranian attack has had less missiles

[Legbiter]

I can see B2 bombings of the key nuclear site forcing the Iranians playing their one last card, attempting to 'close' the Strait of Hormuz, which is bound to drag the US into attacking any Iranian naval/missile assets in the Gulf.

The US is now a net energy exporter so closing the strait seems to mostly hurt China. The Iranians might go for it if Israel blows up Khark island oil terminal which handles about 98% of their crude exports...

Maybe trump will attack first, saying they're pre-empting any Iranian attacks?

lol Trump sounded today like a hype man for a WWE fight on whether he'd bomb Iran. Probably he will.

[crazy canuck]

The US still imports a lot of oil.  That is the reason there is a trade imbalance between the US and Canada.  I am not sure how much the Americans source from the Middle East now though.

[Sheilbh]

The US is now a net energy exporter so closing the strait seems to mostly hurt China. The Iranians might go for it if Israel blows up Khark island oil terminal which handles about 98% of their crude exports...

Maybe.

You're right China buys about 80-90% of Iranian energy exports - but China's energy policy is deliberately designed to avoid reliance on oil and gas (which they don't have). I think largely to avoid dependency but I think also to avoid having to become a security guarantor/ordering nation in the Middle East.

So China's share of energy from oil is just under 20% - that's one of the lowest in the world, European countries are somewhere between 30-50% for example. Similarly gas is less than 10% - almost every European country is at least double that. Gas is tough, but my understanding is Iran isn't a major gas exporter (I think they're below the UK and our very dwindling North Sea reserves - and oil is fungible globally. In addition, as with food, China's built up a strategic oil reserve of crude (and my understanding is they've been stockpiling at record rates in the last few months). There'd definitely be a hit but I'm not sure how significant it would be for China. I think it'd be a bit of turbulence rather than a big issue.

Closing the strait and hiting Iranian energy infrastructure would, I think, mainly hurt Europe and I think other Asian countries. Pakistan and Japan import a lot of LNG, with Qatar a big supplier, and India uses a LOT of oil in its energy mix - so China moving from cheap sanctioned suppliers into the global market for a smaller share of their supply would, I think, have a big impact there. I believe there are Qatari tankers of LNG headed for Europe that are currently bottled up because of the risk - and that's before a strike. I think the combination of no Russian gas, plus the Persian Gulf not being able to export, plus Suez routes no longer being necessarily secure would be a big challenge for Europe.

[Legbiter]

I think the combination of no Russian gas, plus the Persian Gulf not being able to export, plus Suez routes no longer being necessarily secure would be a big challenge for Europe

Yeah.

Reality is brutal.

[Legbiter]

I'm going to open up a Scotch and pour me a large one. Feels like I've seen a variation of this before in Iraq, Libya and Syria.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

The US still imports a lot of oil.  That is the reason there is a trade imbalance between the US and Canada.  I am not sure how much the Americans source from the Middle East now though.

We do still import a lot of oil, but it is increasingly by choice.  The US almost produces enough oil to fill its own needs.  Though Legbiter said "energy", we have been a next exporter of oil specifically since 2020, and have been close to producing enough for ourselves since 2019, per the EIA.  That's not to say the US doesn't have significant interest in ensuring the continued flow of Gulf oil, but the concerts there are really about our allies and world economic stability, not our own direct needs.

[Jacob]

We do still import a lot of oil, but it is increasingly by choice.  The US almost produces enough oil to fill its own needs.  Though Legbiter said "energy", we have been a next exporter of oil specifically since 2020, and have been close to producing enough for ourselves since 2019, per the EIA.  That's not to say the US doesn't have significant interest in ensuring the continued flow of Gulf oil, but the concerts there are really about our allies and world economic stability, not our own direct needs.

Sounds like the US under the current administration does not, in fact, have an interest there.

[The Minsky Moment]

There is no point trying to discern a grand strategy because the two key actors are entirely consumed by domestic politics.

You can look in vain for any strategic reason for the timing of Israel's attack.  The only relevant, recent regional event of interest happened a few days later when Netanyahu suffered a blow to his coalition's viability as two coalition deputies broke ranks to vote against him on a confidence vote. Bibi knows two things: once he falls he is facing jail time for corruption and that maintaining high intensity military conflict is his best play to stay on as PM.  The math is simple and crude, but it adds up.

As for Trump, this crisis has badly exposed the abject weakness he attempts to disguise with juvenile bluster and boastfulness. Given advance notice of Israel's intentions, he made clear through public statements his desire to pursue diplomatic talks and his opposition to an Israeli strike.  Israel ignored him and struck anyways and has been fabulously rewarded for the insult with unconditional approval from Trump, some of it backdated.  After seeing Israel make things go boom, Trump quickly sacrificed his publicly announced "policy" and his credibility to jump on the bandwagon of the breathless 24 hour cycle of conflict news porn.  Of course, in part this reflects the emptiness of the policy.  At some level, Trump presumably knows he has no clue how to negotiate with Iran; his stated policy for talks flows from his reflexive preference to portray himself as DEAL-maker, not from any carefully thought out diplomatic initiative. But he is always ready to take on the Apprentice-like role of "tough guy," proven by avoiding any actual toughness in favor of recycling tough guy dialogue from B-movies.