The Israel-Iran War ?

[Razgovory]

So much for reflection.  The people who claim much of Languish is Yi are right after all.

Have you thought about doing some reflection?  Like why is it a crime when Israel does it but not when Iran does it?

What is Iran doing that has your panties in a twist?  Firing rockets at Israel? That might, indeed, be a war crime, but it depends on what the Iranians are targeting.  e know that, in the Israeli case in Gaza that they are attempting to make it impossible for the Gazans to stay. Their more honest fascists in the government have said so.

From all accounts, the Israeli strikes in Iran are on legitimate targets.  Some of them seem like they could be ignoring collateral damage (like dropping an entire apartment building in the hopes of killing a specific person) but there isn't enough info to conclude anything yet.

And the Iranians frequently make statements about irradicating Israel (as do the fascists in Gaza, if you believe a Gazan can be fascist), so their attacks can also be understood as making it impossible for for the Israelis to stay.  With that in mind I'm sure the UN will begin proceeding against the Iranian leadership, as they will against the leaders in Saudi Arabia for the famine that cost the lives of tens of thousands of children.  Unless charges of war crimes and genocide are not legal actions but politics.

[Admiral Yi]

Raz, consider the possibility that the war crime accusations leveled against Israel concern acts other than the simple killing of civilians.

[Tamas]

I would imagine Putin and Bibi are both egging Trump on to join in against Iran. Gulf oil deliveries being severely hindered sounds like excellent for Russia, not to mention American commitment to a war frowned upon by China.

[frunk]

I'm not convinced Russia is so willing to throw over an ally like Iran without getting something more substantial in return.

[Jacob]

I'm not convinced Russia is so willing to throw over an ally like Iran without getting something more substantial in return.

Yeah. While Russia would benefit from higher oil prices, throwing out long term alliances for perceived short term gain seems more of a Trump play.

[Legbiter]

Israeli loitering drones are just cruising unopposed over Tehran. Incredible.

Also Trump just posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" on his socials so it's regime change at this point it seems. 

A lot of MAGA types on twitter are having trouble processing this change...

[Jacob]

So Trump says a lot of things that often are only tenuously connected to what's actually happening.

But a US + Israel war on Iran to affect regime change would be... I don't know... a tall mountain to climb, IMO. Taking the premise at face value for the moment, my disparate thoughts are:

• Leaving aside the moral elements altogether for a moment, I feel like this has potential to be a US repeat of Putin's invasion of Ukraine. There's a real risk to get stuck in a quagmire that drains US money, materiel, and lives for a long time.
• Is the idea that Iran is going to unconditionally surrender without US (or Israeli?) boots on the ground, purely from a bombing campaign? I would be surprised if that works.
• If the US is serious in affecting regime change in Iran, it'll likely need to position more forces in theatre than it has now. This will likely take some time.
• While Trump and Hegseth are very "America #1, everyone else sucks", I assume they'd still like some support from others (if for no other reason than to feel like a hegemon ordering lesser countries around)... but who would support the US here? Saudi Arabia?
• Domestically, I expect there'll be some opposition to the war but Trump might also be hoping for a "rallying around the flag during wartime" effect.

I don't know... I still think this typical Trumpian bluster that will be followed up with very firm and pompous statements all over the map, and relatively minimal action.

Separate from that, it'll be interesting to see what China and Russia does - to what degree will they be interested in  and able to prop up Iran?

The likelihood of a major war is not decreasing, IMO.

[HVC]

China could flood Iran with aid if only to test their equipment against Americas in a relatively risk free scenario. IIRC their equipment in Pakistan did well against the western weapons of India.

[Razgovory]

Raz, consider the possibility that the war crime accusations leveled against Israel concern acts other than the simple killing of civilians.

I do.  Genocide accusations were made before the bombing started in Gaza.  The Genocide is Israel existing.  That is the crime.  Genocide is now widely considered the worst crime possible, it is the ultimate evil.  Jews as Genocidal neatly replaces Jews as Satanic for a more secular age.  Israel is considered Hostis Humani generis, just like Jews were in the Middle Ages.

[Valmy]

Domestically, I expect there'll be some opposition to the war but Trump might also be hoping for a "rallying around the flag during wartime" effect.

He hasn't prepped us for that. Bush did an all out propaganda effort for months and still his war was very divisive.

[The Brain]

The prospect of Liberal tears is enough for Republicans.

[Admiral Yi]

I do.  Genocide accusations were made before the bombing started in Gaza.  The Genocide is Israel existing.  That is the crime.  Genocide is now widely considered the worst crime possible, it is the ultimate evil.  Jews as Genocidal neatly replaces Jews as Satanic for a more secular age.  Israel is considered Hostis Humani generis, just like Jews were in the Middle Ages.

OK, you've thought about when the genocide accusations started.  Now think about when the war crime accusations started.

[Jacob]

He hasn't prepped us for that. Bush did an all out propaganda effort for months and still his war was very divisive.

Yeah.

I don't know, I guess the tenor of US media (social & classic) will be indicative of the intention. Are we going to see them go into build up for war mode? Or are they going to stay in "we might fire some missiles and provide intelligence support for Israeli actions" mode?

I still lean towards the US not taking much action (in part because Trump typically is afraid of taking action), but I also didn't think Putin would actually launch his invasion until very close to the actual launch date.

[Razgovory]

I do.  Genocide accusations were made before the bombing started in Gaza.  The Genocide is Israel existing.  That is the crime.  Genocide is now widely considered the worst crime possible, it is the ultimate evil.  Jews as Genocidal neatly replaces Jews as Satanic for a more secular age.  Israel is considered Hostis Humani generis, just like Jews were in the Middle Ages.

OK, you've thought about when the genocide accusations started.  Now think about when the war crime accusations started.

Same time.  The accusations don't have much to do with what is going on.  People are fine with people of other ethnicities  engaging in similar behavior.  It is just leveraging international law in the service of racial hatred.  The issue is not that Palestinian are getting killed, it is that the wrong type of people are killing them.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Israeli loitering drones are just cruising unopposed over Tehran. Incredible.

Also Trump just posted "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" on his socials so it's regime change at this point it seems. 

A lot of MAGA types on twitter are having trouble processing this change...

or he's talking about himself. He is a TACO after all