Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[The Minsky Moment]

If true, Exhibit 10,001 in why US aid to Ukraine is one the best investments made in the history of the US military-related spending.

[DGuller]

I just hope that among the countries not involved in the war, the good one are learning more from the sidelines than the bad ones.  I'd hate to go to war with China that combines its inherent economic and political strengths with the military experience of Russia.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

no cargo container will be trusted again in Russia. Who knows how many of these containers are still about.

[Legbiter]

The online zetnik rage and seethe is absolutely Biblical. 

[Zoupa]

At this point I think NATO members should be asking for security guarantees from Ukraine, not the other way around.

[Jacob]

Well done Ukraine 

[HVC]

Guess Putin now knows how Nicholas felt when he lost his pacific fleet

[Tamas]

The cynicism of Russians really is something else:

Russia offered Ukraine partial '2-3 day' ceasefire, Moscow's top negotiator says
We reported in an earlier post that Ukraine said that during the talks this afternoon Russia rejected its offer of an unconditional ceasefire, as Moscow has done in the past.

Moscow's top negotiator Vladimir Medinsky has now said that Russia proposed a partial ceasefire of "two to three days" at the talks in Istanbul.

"We have proposed a specific ceasefire for two to three days in certain areas of the front line," Medinsky said, "so that commanders can collect the bodies of their soldiers". We have not heard what the Ukrainian position on this specific, short ceasefire is yet.

"We are willing to agree to a ceasefire at sections of the front we want to redeploy troops from to support our summer offensive. You are welcome"

[Jacob]

I wonder how much this attack changes things like basing and security strategies. It certainly seems like the threat landscape is changing.

What are the risks of remote controlled scenarios, as this technology gets more available? I've been more wondering about it in the context of terrorist attacks and assassinations rather than military action, but the principles are the same, I think. Something like self-driving (or parked) cybertruck opening its hatch, to reveal some mortars or grenade armed drones to attack a specific person or location seems within reach of motivated small groups.

What are the main things that stops that type of attack in the future? Perhaps the logistical cost is high enough that it's outside the scope of non-state actors, but I do wonder.

[DGuller]

I've been thinking about it myself.  It seems like the future of war may be a mass assassination campaign, rather than a game of artillery RNG.  Sooner or later we're going to have AI drawing up a list of targets sorted by priority, and dispatching a drone to dispatch it, or at least that's how I imagine it.

[Josquius]

I think there's a small window with these kinds of attacks. Drone counter measures will come and improve. I've seen stuff about lasers for instance or AI controlled anti drone drones.

Though that will only cover limited areas. If someone decides to take a shot at a random football stadium on matchday for instance....

Are we looking at drones patrolling the entire country looking out for hostile drones?
Will drone defences be a standard part of any city?

Short term it all bodes well for Taiwan remaining independent... But less well for the state of the country if china tries anything.

[Tonitrus]

I've been thinking about it myself.  It seems like the future of war may be a mass assassination campaign, rather than a game of artillery RNG.  Sooner or later we're going to have AI drawing up a list of targets sorted by priority, and dispatching a drone to dispatch it, or at least that's how I imagine it.

[Bauer]

I've been thinking about it myself.  It seems like the future of war may be a mass assassination campaign, rather than a game of artillery RNG.  Sooner or later we're going to have AI drawing up a list of targets sorted by priority, and dispatching a drone to dispatch it, or at least that's how I imagine it.

Heil Hydra

[Bauer]

I think there's a small window with these kinds of attacks. Drone counter measures will come and improve. I've seen stuff about lasers for instance or AI controlled anti drone drones.

Though that will only cover limited areas. If someone decides to take a shot at a random football stadium on matchday for instance....

Are we looking at drones patrolling the entire country looking out for hostile drones?
Will drone defences be a standard part of any city?

Short term it all bodes well for Taiwan remaining independent... But less well for the state of the country if china tries anything.

I'm no military expert but I imagine the cost of countering these drones will always vastly exceed the drones themselves.  At the very least you'd need radar to detect all these little buggers to be deployed in a huge area.  I understand the whole war has featured constant changes in jamming and jamming resistance on both sides.  Having a machine gun that can auto detect and shoot them down seems logical but it's still stationary.

What's interesting is that the combat power of the drone divisions should remain relatively constant since the operators are remote, and production is easy and cheap to constantly replace them.

[Darth Wagtaros]

Some kind of wide area jamming technology that leaves your own forces cut off but if they are manned at least able to operate independently?