What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[mongers]

 

Though I'm leaning toward naming it the 'Fidel Castro memorial boating lake'

[Syt]

https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2

The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that government spending could be separated from gross domestic product reports, in response to questions about whether the spending cuts pushed by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency could possibly cause an economic downturn.

"You know that governments historically have messed with GDP," Lutnick said on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures." "They count government spending as part of GDP. So I'm going to separate those two and make it transparent."

Doing so could potentially complicate or distort a fundamental measure of the U.S. economy's health. Government spending is traditionally included in the GDP because changes in taxes, spending, deficits and regulations by the government can impact the path of overall growth. GDP reports already include extensive details on government spending, offering a level of transparency for economists.

Musk's efforts to downsize federal agencies could result in the layoffs of tens of thousands of federal workers, whose lost income could potentially reduce their spending, affecting businesses and the economy at large.

The commerce secretary's remarks echoed Musk's arguments made Friday on X that government spending doesn't create value for the economy.

"A more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending," Musk wrote on his social media platform. "Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don't make people's lives better."


The argument as articulated so far by Trump administration officials appears to play down the economic benefits created by some forms of government spending that can shape an economy's trajectory.

"If the government buys a tank, that's GDP," Lutnick said Sunday. "But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That is wasted inefficiency, wasted money. And cutting that, while it shows in GDP, we're going to get rid of that."

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis published its most recent GDP report on Thursday, showing that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in the final three months of last year.

The report makes it possible to measure the forces driving the economy, showing that the gains at the end of last year were largely driven by greater consumer spending and an upward revision to federal government spending related to defense. Still, the federal government's component of the GDP report for all of 2024 increased at 2.6%, slightly lower than overall economic growth last year of 2.8%.

In the GDP report, government spending accounts for almost one-fifth of people's personal income, which totaled more than $24.6 trillion last year. This includes Social Security payments, benefits for military veterans, Medicare and Medicaid and other programs. But the report also measures the amount of people's personal incomes that are paid in taxes to the government.

The government is not always a contributor to GDP growth and can subtract from it, which is what happened in 2022 as pandemic-related aid expired.

Lutnick said that the Trump administration would balance the federal budget with spending cuts, saying that would help growth and reduce the interest rates paid by consumers.

"When we balance the budget of the United States of America, interest rates are going to come smashing down," Lutnick said. "This is going to be the best economy anybody's ever seen. And to bet against it is foolish."

I had 2.5 years of macroeconomics in school, but granted that was 30 years ago, so I've forgotten most of it and much of what we learned (I think our semester on history of economic theory came up to Galbraith) would not be up to date anymore. But even so:

[Solmyr]

As part of its effort to root out dissent, the US Dept of Education wants to know if your school teach divisive ideologies:
enddei.ed.gov

I'm sure soon enough Putin will give tips on how to define dissidents as foreign agents and pass laws against "discrediting the army/government".

[viper37]

RFK Jr wants people to get vaccinated, Trumps wants to slap Canada with tariffs because of the trade imbalance while at the same time he wants to revive the Keystone XL pipeline to import more oil AND import cheap eggs from Canada to lower the price of US ones.

All is going according to plan...

[HisMajestyBOB]

https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2

The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that government spending could be separated from gross domestic product reports, in response to questions about whether the spending cuts pushed by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency could possibly cause an economic downturn.

"You know that governments historically have messed with GDP," Lutnick said on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures." "They count government spending as part of GDP. So I'm going to separate those two and make it transparent."

Doing so could potentially complicate or distort a fundamental measure of the U.S. economy's health. Government spending is traditionally included in the GDP because changes in taxes, spending, deficits and regulations by the government can impact the path of overall growth. GDP reports already include extensive details on government spending, offering a level of transparency for economists.

Musk's efforts to downsize federal agencies could result in the layoffs of tens of thousands of federal workers, whose lost income could potentially reduce their spending, affecting businesses and the economy at large.

The commerce secretary's remarks echoed Musk's arguments made Friday on X that government spending doesn't create value for the economy.

"A more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending," Musk wrote on his social media platform. "Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don't make people's lives better."


The argument as articulated so far by Trump administration officials appears to play down the economic benefits created by some forms of government spending that can shape an economy's trajectory.

"If the government buys a tank, that's GDP," Lutnick said Sunday. "But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That is wasted inefficiency, wasted money. And cutting that, while it shows in GDP, we're going to get rid of that."

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis published its most recent GDP report on Thursday, showing that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in the final three months of last year.

The report makes it possible to measure the forces driving the economy, showing that the gains at the end of last year were largely driven by greater consumer spending and an upward revision to federal government spending related to defense. Still, the federal government's component of the GDP report for all of 2024 increased at 2.6%, slightly lower than overall economic growth last year of 2.8%.

In the GDP report, government spending accounts for almost one-fifth of people's personal income, which totaled more than $24.6 trillion last year. This includes Social Security payments, benefits for military veterans, Medicare and Medicaid and other programs. But the report also measures the amount of people's personal incomes that are paid in taxes to the government.

The government is not always a contributor to GDP growth and can subtract from it, which is what happened in 2022 as pandemic-related aid expired.

Lutnick said that the Trump administration would balance the federal budget with spending cuts, saying that would help growth and reduce the interest rates paid by consumers.

"When we balance the budget of the United States of America, interest rates are going to come smashing down," Lutnick said. "This is going to be the best economy anybody's ever seen. And to bet against it is foolish."

I had 2.5 years of macroeconomics in school, but granted that was 30 years ago, so I've forgotten most of it and much of what we learned (I think our semester on history of economic theory came up to Galbraith) would not be up to date anymore. But even so:

Oh, just wait until the unemployment and inflation numbers come in.

[Josquius]

Okay, if say the science, people who did good scientifically valid work that follows the scientific method, said tomorrow that Transgender people are natural threats to all living people and should be culled, would you be okay with that?

There we're going into mad theoreticals.
But more or less. If reputable scientists were to discover and then be validated repeatedly such that there was no possible doubt that against all logic and reason as we know it that transgender people, all people named Kevin, everyone who hates marmite, insert whatever group you like here,  are not just normal people but rather part of some devious alien plot to destroy all life on earth then I would support putting a stop to them.
Maybe not straight to the killing. But then in this theoretically we're assuming its absolutely proven...but then that never happens in science... but then its a mad theoretical like would you rather have eggs for eyes or a sausage for a mouth.

I had 2.5 years of macroeconomics in school, but granted that was 30 years ago, so I've forgotten most of it and much of what we learned (I think our semester on history of economic theory came up to Galbraith) would not be up to date anymore. But even so:

Oh, just wait until the unemployment and inflation numbers come in.
[/quote]

You should know enough of how these regimes work.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-gdp-economy-government-spending-lutnick-7414ba1bd441bd4bf64620bfd66923b2

The Trump administration may exclude government spending from GDP, obscuring the impact of DOGE cuts
WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) — Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that government spending could be separated from gross domestic product reports, in response to questions about whether the spending cuts pushed by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency could possibly cause an economic downturn.

"You know that governments historically have messed with GDP," Lutnick said on Fox News Channel's "Sunday Morning Futures." "They count government spending as part of GDP. So I'm going to separate those two and make it transparent."

Doing so could potentially complicate or distort a fundamental measure of the U.S. economy's health. Government spending is traditionally included in the GDP because changes in taxes, spending, deficits and regulations by the government can impact the path of overall growth. GDP reports already include extensive details on government spending, offering a level of transparency for economists.


Musk's efforts to downsize federal agencies could result in the layoffs of tens of thousands of federal workers, whose lost income could potentially reduce their spending, affecting businesses and the economy at large.
The commerce secretary's remarks echoed Musk's arguments made Friday on X that government spending doesn't create value for the economy.

"A more accurate measure of GDP would exclude government spending," Musk wrote on his social media platform. "Otherwise, you can scale GDP artificially high by spending money on things that don't make people's lives better."


The argument as articulated so far by Trump administration officials appears to play down the economic benefits created by some forms of government spending that can shape an economy's trajectory.

"If the government buys a tank, that's GDP," Lutnick said Sunday. "But paying 1,000 people to think about buying a tank is not GDP. That is wasted inefficiency, wasted money. And cutting that, while it shows in GDP, we're going to get rid of that."

Advertisement

The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis published its most recent GDP report on Thursday, showing that the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in the final three months of last year.

The report makes it possible to measure the forces driving the economy, showing that the gains at the end of last year were largely driven by greater consumer spending and an upward revision to federal government spending related to defense. Still, the federal government's component of the GDP report for all of 2024 increased at 2.6%, slightly lower than overall economic growth last year of 2.8%.

In the GDP report, government spending accounts for almost one-fifth of people's personal income, which totaled more than $24.6 trillion last year. This includes Social Security payments, benefits for military veterans, Medicare and Medicaid and other programs. But the report also measures the amount of people's personal incomes that are paid in taxes to the government.

The government is not always a contributor to GDP growth and can subtract from it, which is what happened in 2022 as pandemic-related aid expired.

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Lutnick said that the Trump administration would balance the federal budget with spending cuts, saying that would help growth and reduce the interest rates paid by consumers.

"When we balance the budget of the United States of America, interest rates are going to come smashing down," Lutnick said. "This is going to be the best economy anybody's ever seen. And to bet against it is foolish."

[The Minsky Moment]

Yeah cooking the books is another standard move out of the authoritarian playbook; the ChiComs still do it all the time.

The idea that GDP is about counting things "that make people's lives better" is absurd.  It's never been about that; it's one of the first things students learn about GDP accounting.  Producing deadly chemicals and then immediately dumping them into a reservoir increases GDP. Building munitions and then using them on your own city in a civil conflict increases GDP. Running a toxic social media platform that transmits foreign propaganda to undermine the country increases GDP. 

[grumbler]

Why am I not surprised that the US has a commerce secretary willing to pretend that he doesn't know what GDP means?

[The Minsky Moment]

The existing GDP releases already clearly break out the impact of government spending, as well as the other components.

https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/gdp4q24-2nd.pdf

In any event, this policy won't last long.  Once there is an epidemic, or a really bad hurricane, or a financial crisis, they will quietly shove G back into the numbers and pretend like this never happened.

[viper37]

Mexicans warned not to travel to Texas over measles


Maybe that was the plan to solve illegal immigration?

[viper37]

GDP forecasts: -2.8%.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow


I'd laugh if it wasn't bringing us along with it.


At least, the price of eggs is down... oh wait.

[Oexmelin]

Social Security has never missed a payment. DOGE actions threaten 'interruption of benefits,' ex-agency head says

Social Security has never missed a benefit payment since the program first began sending individuals monthly benefits more than eight decades ago.

But the recent actions at the U.S. Social Security Administration by Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency are putting monthly benefit checks for more than 72.5 million Americans at risk, former commissioner and former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley told CNBC.com.

"Ultimately, you're going to see the system collapse and an interruption of benefits," O'Malley said. "I believe you will see that within the next 30 to 90 days."

Ahead of any interruption in benefits, "people should start saving now," O'Malley said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/01/doge-actions-may-cause-social-security-benefit-interruption-ex-agency-head.html

[Richard Hakluyt]

Many of those people will be living hand to mouth of course 

[Zoupa]

Dying of hunger but owning the libs.

[crazy canuck]

GDP forecasts: -2.8%.

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow


I'd laugh if it wasn't bringing us along with it.


At least, the price of eggs is down... oh wait.

I weep for them, and it has not yet dragged us along.