What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Admiral Yi]

Oh yeah.  Independent fed.

[Tamas]

Oh yeah.  Independent fed.

Early days

[Admiral Yi]

Looks like only the Federal Open Market Committee can auction and buy bonds.  Powell's term runs to 2026.

[Norgy]

I am not going to make jokes or try and downplay what worries me about Trump's new term.

It is the NATO. I am not sure Rutte is such a sweet-talker as Stoltenberg was.
I have a very real concern that maybe we'll just have to fend for ourselves in Europe. I know some military "analysts" think that Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway together in NATO is some potential military power of consequence. But we hardly even manage to supply ammunition to our own forces, let alone the Ukraine. I think Putin has no less desire for an ice free naval base in the Atlantic than old Soviet doctrinaires did.

Norway has increased military spending in a pace not seen since 1945, Sweden and Finland as neutrals always had large (in comparision to population) military spending and forces. Denmark has some special forces I would definitely not want to mess with.

But we, the Nordic countries, would still need the US forces, particularly the naval forces. And probably whatever is left of the Royal Navy.

Biden was by no means a great president, I think we all can agree on that, and I would suppose domestic concerns is why Trump won so overwhelmingly. So. I am worried. As worried as I was when I by unfortunate accident watched "The Day After" some time around 1983.

[The Minsky Moment]

Re Yi guardrails:

2/3 Senate impeachment effectively makes impeachment impossible given current political realities. That makes it an anti-guardrail, because it means executive officers can act with impunity without fear of removal.

The Fed's independence can be eliminated at a stroke by a simple act of Congress. 50+1 in Senate, majority in the House.  Bye bye Federal Reserve Act. Done and gone.

The Fed's independence can be undermined by the President announcing his intention to replace all current governors as vacancies open and appointing a "shadow chair" to signal markets the administration's view and intentions.  Because markets are forward looking, that would undermine the Fed's signalling process.  That could done by the President at any time without any support or action from Congress.

[The Minsky Moment]

am not sure Rutte is such a sweet-talker as Stoltenberg was.

IIRC Rutte got on very well with Trump as PM.  Was much remarked on at the time.

[Norgy]

am not sure Rutte is such a sweet-talker as Stoltenberg was.

IIRC Rutte got on very well with Trump as PM.  Was much remarked on at the time.

I hope you're right.

[Norgy]

I have a source that says Stoltenberg's at best stilted English and accent is very much intended to make himself look less smart. Being the smartest kid in the classroom is not always a good thing. Stoltenberg always was. His father's former foreign minister Thorvald Stoltenberg, one of several to fail at getting a peace agreement in the former Yugoslavia.

[Syt]

Showing my age, but whenever I read "Stoltenberg" I think of the German politician: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Stoltenberg

[Barrister]

The Fed's independence can be eliminated at a stroke by a simple act of Congress. 50+1 in Senate, majority in the House.  Bye bye Federal Reserve Act. Done and gone.

Speaking of guardrails...

GOP has a 3 seat majority in the Senate, and just elected John Thune as majority leader.  They need to bring almost everyone along on any crazy votes.

House will be even tighter - looks to be a majority in the single digits - and thats before they lose people like Gaetz.

I'm much more worried about Trump trying to do things through executive orders than I am him passing much of a legislative agenda.

[Norgy]

Showing my age, but whenever I read "Stoltenberg" I think of the German politician: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerhard_Stoltenberg

The far, well, very far right in Norway call the Stoltenbergs "jews". Anti-semitic language is well and alive in Norway.
We've also managed to import that "deep state" idea from United States. Hooray for the Internet!

As a PS I should add that the Norwegian state is one of the most transparent in Europe. Well. Apart from that cellar where the Labour Party plans how to displace white people with Muslim immigrants, of course. That is off-limits.

[crazy canuck]

The Fed's independence can be eliminated at a stroke by a simple act of Congress. 50+1 in Senate, majority in the House.  Bye bye Federal Reserve Act. Done and gone.

Speaking of guardrails...

GOP has a 3 seat majority in the Senate, and just elected John Thune as majority leader.  They need to bring almost everyone along on any crazy votes.

House will be even tighter - looks to be a majority in the single digits - and thats before they lose people like Gaetz.

I'm much more worried about Trump trying to do things through executive orders than I am him passing much of a legislative agenda.

The reason these ridiculous appointments have been announced early is to ensure any Republican Senator hinting that they may vote against confirmation can be sent strong messages that they will be knee capped both politically and literally.

[Sheilbh]

So, how much of the checks & balances, and the guardrails of the constitution and its institutions remain at this point?

As a political constitution kind of person my general view is that guardrails, legal constitutional protections and institutions are the opium of the ruling classes.

An awful lot of them are nothing more than gentleman's agreements and the unspoken rules or norms (of the type that we all rely on in our daily lives because they also govern how to behave in a society). If people stop following them, there's not much you can do to enforce them, they're difficult to recover and it's quite alarming. Even the legal ones are only as effective as the belief and buy-in to the system they represent and the political will to uphold them. If that goes then there's nothing the most beautifully crafted, legally elegant constitution (i.e. the Italian constitution) can do.

So I think people are right to point out Trump's margins which are very narrow. All it requires to cause issues is for a few, strong-willed anti-Trump Republicans who are willing to take a position and stick to it...

More generally - the right's position on the courts is stronger than in 2016 and since 2020 an awful lot of thought has gone on in the right-wing think-tank world of how to staff a Trump administration more effectively than the last one and how to use the levers of power they'll have. That didn't exist in 2016 because at that point, very few of them had worked with or were keen on Trump (because they thought he'd lose) - I think there's a far better idea of the what, how and who of power now.

(Although again I kind of suspect Gaetz is such an outrageous appointment as to roll the pitch for someone really awful but comparatively far better.)

And having said all that, it's why I think the most effective institutional opposition to Trump in 2016-20 came from states and cities and local governments (not least through democratic processes) because America isn't just national politics. There are deep wells of democracy and power. I could be wrong but I suspect the same will happen again - people will be disappointed waiting for heroic Republicans in Congress, Congress more generally or the courts but all the various lawyers of government will be capable of responding (and "resisting") in many different ways.

[viper37]

Elon Musk, one of Trump's biggest backers and the world's richest person, said earlier this year that killing the subsidy might slightly hurt Tesla sales but would devastate its U.S. EV competitors, which include legacy automakers such as General Motors.

Good way to make policy.
It might hurt me, but it'll hurt the other more, so it's sound policy.

[PJL]

It make sense for Tesla while they still have some sort of first mover / innovator advantage over the rest, at least domestically. Tariffs on Chinese goods will do the rest.