Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Sheilbh]

Yep

Said it before but I think it's plausible but the nightmare scenario for a British government to have Trump in the White House, Le Pen in the Elysee and a not insignificant number of Russia-sympathisers in the Bundestag. And if it's bad for us I can't even imagine for the Poles or Baltic states.

[Razgovory]

My sister lives in Waukesha county.  I'm pretty sure she voted for Harris.

[Admiral Yi]

Don't worry Shelf, I'm sure Spain, Italy, and Belgium will pick up the slack.

[Sheilbh]

(Italy might - increasing spending, very pro-Ukraine and also traditionally have an admirably cynical, pragmatic view of world politics - very little gnashing of teeth about the "liberal rules based order" in Rome.)

[HVC]

You can always rely on your oldest ally

[PJL]

I wonder if Sunak had held the election after the US one, whether Reform UK would have got more seats? Probably one of the reasons Sunak went when he did.

[The Minsky Moment]

I wouldn't worry too much. The last time the Baltic States and Poland lost their independence, everything worked out just fine.

[HVC]

I wouldn't worry too much. The last time the Baltic States and Poland lost their independence, everything worked out just fine.

I mean sure, they last time was bad, but the first few times it was ok.

[Josquius]

I don't follow German politics at all, but heard today that the guy favoured to be the next leader, head of the CDU, actually has a pretty great policy on Ukraine and will present Putin with an ultimatum of GTFO in 24 hours or Ukraine can start shooting taurus missiles wherever it wants.
I suspect a smidge of hopium.
But...fingers crossed its even semi true.

[Norgy]

I wouldn't worry too much. The last time the Baltic States and Poland lost their independence, everything worked out just fine.

They have statues of Waffen-SS freedom fighters in the Baltics. Yeah. It went really well. If you're Hortlund.

On a more serious note, it is hard, really hard, to get any exact numbers of casualties. However, and take this with a medium-sized saltwork along the Baltic shore, the Russians are really losing a lot of men. I have some Ukrainian refugee friends I talk to at times. They are doing no better. I think the last semi-official report I managed to get my sweaty paws on suggested that artillery ammunition was lacking on 4-1 scale in Russia's favour.

A war of attrition in Europe. Who'd have thunk?

At least it will be over after Trump makes a phone call.

[Grey Fox]

The fact that after 2016-20, with all that's happened, European leaders decided we could, once again, pin our entire security architecture on the voters of crucial Waukesha County is not great.

Lots of voters seemed to think the current social contract of Democracy is not worth saving.

[Admiral Yi]

I wouldn't worry too much. The last time the Baltic States and Poland lost their independence, everything worked out just fine.

I mean sure, they last time was bad, but the first few times it was ok.

 

[Zoupa]

Yep

Said it before but I think it's plausible but the nightmare scenario for a British government to have Trump in the White House, Le Pen in the Elysee and a not insignificant number of Russia-sympathisers in the Bundestag. And if it's bad for us I can't even imagine for the Poles or Baltic states.

Hopefully Le Pen will be in jail by then. The case looks pretty solid.

[celedhring]

Yep

Said it before but I think it's plausible but the nightmare scenario for a British government to have Trump in the White House, Le Pen in the Elysee and a not insignificant number of Russia-sympathisers in the Bundestag. And if it's bad for us I can't even imagine for the Poles or Baltic states.

Hopefully Le Pen will be in jail by then. The case looks pretty solid.

I suspect that will fire up her base and they can always elect a surrogate. It's not like criminal convictions seem to matter anymore.

But throw the book at her for sure. The case seems pretty blatant.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah I suspect it'll be very counterproductive.

Also bluntly I'd be willing to bet most MEPs have had similar things of using those funds for party work - I certainly know the Greens and Sinn Fein have. My instinct is that it may not be a rock you want to lift.