2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Razgovory]

And it's not as if the Arab-American vote would have made up the difference either.

Still what dumbfucks. Their "protest" is going to gain them anything.

Edit: forgot the word not

They wouldn't be the first Arabs to destroy themselves because of Israel.

[Sheilbh]

What's really interesting are the tables below the map.  There were 180,000 fewer votes cast across the five counties this year versus 2020.  Basically all those missing votes look to have come out of Harris's total (vice Biden).  Trump was basically flat (he got 2% more votes this time, but there were 3% more registered voters).  The numbers make it seem like Democratic apathy swung this, rather than any Trump appeal.

One thought (I am - can't emphasise this enough - not a data person) is that it'd be interesting to track it against 2016 and previous recent elections. Because in the same way as Biden was an outlier, I think 2020 had a huge turnout compared to other recent American elections while I think this year is more normal.

I wonder if it is a return to the mean - so it'd be interesting maybe to track Democrat and Republican votes against that?

[DGuller]

I agree that I don't think it's helpful to compare against 2020, because it was an outlier year.  I also think the assumption that Trump voters from 2020 turned out at the same rate, but only Biden voters turned out less, is completely unsupported.  Theoretically both parties could've lost the same share voters in the turnout, but Trump just converted some that did turn out.

[Josquius]

A thought. Which is a potential positive out of all this.
So many people saying it's the economy that was their main concern.
I think this is bs for many but not all. Just lack of awareness.

Then there's those who's say they hate trunp but petrol is more expensive than it used to be (isn't it always?)

This is really something for all those woke zealots gloating and spraying their nonsense. People aren't into fascism. They just weirdly believe trump will be better for the economy. Which is hopeful.

There's still the concern though that the Biden recovery continues and really starts hitting normal people. Absolutely a good thing to hope for.... But at the same time likely to be credited to trump if so.

[Grey Fox]

Once the Fascist(s) hold(s) power, they don't let go.

[crazy canuck]

Jos, I am pretty sure people were well aware of what was concerning them when they said the economy was there main concern.

It obviously would not have been for you, but that does not make your priorities better, nor diminish theirs.

That is how democracy works.

[Caliga]

Then there's those who's say they hate trunp but petrol is more expensive than it used to be (isn't it always?)

I don't think there are that many Americans saying "petrol is more expensive".

[The Minsky Moment]

Then there's those who's say they hate trunp but petrol is more expensive than it used to be (isn't it always?)

I don't think there are that many Americans saying "petrol is more expensive".

Price is lower when you buy by the litre.

[Caliga]

I'll try to remember that the next time I go to the garage to fill up and put air in my tyres.

[Barrister]

Once the Fascist(s) hold(s) power, they don't let go.

So, like, yes and no.

I don't think a 2028 election will be as free and fair as 2024.  Trump is going to try to bring the big media outlets to heel.  We've already seen Bezos/WaPo crumble.  Mind you now that Trump won the majority popular vote they may not be as invested in trying to "steal" the election through other shenanigans.

But on the other hand - the Constitution will still apply.  An election will be held.  I mean even Putin knows he needs the fig leaf of legitimacy that an election gives him.  And Trump has far less control over the levers of power than Putin does.

[PJL]

I fear Vance will be to Maduro as Trump was/is to Chavez. Not as charismatic, but still able to rig things in his favour regardless.

[Barrister]

I fear Vance will be to Maduro as Trump was/is to Chavez. Not as charismatic, but still able to rig things in his favour regardless.

Vance is such a cypher though.

First of all the 2028 primaries are likely to be competitive, and being VP doesn't guarantee anyone a spot at the top of the ticket (Just ask Mike Pence, or Dan Quayle).

But if he was top of the ticket... he has never struck me as being a MAGA "true believer".  He just has no internal compass so he'll go from being a marine, to a Yale-educated lawyer, to being the "Hillbillies in the mist" author, to being a Trumpist.  So it's  possible he doesn't try to even be a Maduro-like figure, even if he gets the nod to be the nominee.

[Zoupa]

Vance is amoral and unethical. Not exactly an improvement on the orange fatso.

[Tamas]

He has grown to prominence in the post-Trump GOP. He has to be dangerous.

[Zoupa]

You guys are digging and digging. Maybe the answer is that a majority of your countrymen are just stupid.

Apparently Harris got less than Biden in terms of percentage of the female vote. 45 % of women voted Trump. There's only so much you can explain and decipher. Maybe y'all are just morons.

I'm listening to Republican strategist Sarah Longwell on NPR talking about public opinion of Trump's tyrannical posture and she just said:

"When I ask voters in focus groups if they think Donald Trump is an authoritarian, the #1 response by far is, 'what's an authoritarian?'"