2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Barrister]

1984 is kind of funny when you think about it though.  Yes, inflation had been tamed by 1984 - but only after going through a really tough recession from 1980-1982 with really high interest rates, which you're normally think would be a killer for incumbents.

Going through a similar economic environment in Canada we threw the bums out in 1984, not re-electing them (although the Liberals had also ruled through the 1970s).

[frunk]

She asked me about the election and what I was thinking, and I told her I was a near-lifelong Democrat (been a registered Democrat my entire life) who hadn't voted Republican since 2000.  I explained why I liked Harris and Walz, what I didn't like about Trump, etc.  She listened thoughtfully and then replied, "Well, all's I know is prices just keep going up and if that doesn't stop I don't know how I can keep paying for this lease."  With that, I knew she'd be voting for Trump even though she didn't say so, and I suspect millions of Americans had a similar internal dialogue and made the same decision, too.

If the logic stops at "price are going up, I have to change to the other guy" there is no way to win that voter by appealing to working class issues.  The mind has already been made up.  In NC I was bombarded for two months with Harris campaign ads saying Trump was going to make the economy worse and that Harris was going to cut taxes and make it easier for people.  What ads targeted at the working class do you think would get through?

[garbon]

She asked me about the election and what I was thinking, and I told her I was a near-lifelong Democrat (been a registered Democrat my entire life) who hadn't voted Republican since 2000.  I explained why I liked Harris and Walz, what I didn't like about Trump, etc.  She listened thoughtfully and then replied, "Well, all's I know is prices just keep going up and if that doesn't stop I don't know how I can keep paying for this lease."  With that, I knew she'd be voting for Trump even though she didn't say so, and I suspect millions of Americans had a similar internal dialogue and made the same decision, too.

If the logic stops at "price are going up, I have to change to the other guy" there is no way to win that voter by appealing to working class issues.  The mind has already been made up.  In NC I was bombarded for two months with Harris campaign ads saying Trump was going to make the economy worse and that Harris was going to cut taxes and make it easier for people.  What ads targeted at the working class do you think would get through?

Yeah all I get from Cal's anecdote is it will be nearly impossible to get some people's votes when your party is the incumbent.

[Barrister]

If the logic stops at "price are going up, I have to change to the other guy" there is no way to win that voter by appealing to working class issues.  The mind has already been made up.  In NC I was bombarded for two months with Harris campaign ads saying Trump was going to make the economy worse and that Harris was going to cut taxes and make it easier for people.  What ads targeted at the working class do you think would get through?

You can make the argument that Harris actually out-performed in swing states precisely because of those kinds of ads - it just wasn't good enough.  In states where she didn't compete there was more of a swing to Trump.

[crazy canuck]

As things stand the Dems have no hope of winning in 28.  The Dems have become the party of the educated elite- and only part of that group.  And the Republicans have become the voice of the wage labourer.

The Dems cannot win if they don't change that.

As things stand the Republicans have no hope in winning in 1968.  The Republican have become of the educated elite- and only part of that group.  And the Democrats have become the voice of the wage labourer.

As things stand the Democrats have no hope in winning in 1976.  The Democrats have become of the educated elite- and only part of that group.  And the Republicans have become the voice of the wage labourer.

I could go on and on. Things never stand.  Life happens, events occur, perceptions change. Americans are fickle and have the attention span of a 2 year old.

The Republicans under Trump are not the voice of the wage laborer, they have temporarily succeeded in attracting that vote in 2024 as they did to some extent in 2016 and failed to do in 2020.  The people funding and backing Trump and the GOP consist of a foreign born media mogul who is the richest man in the world, a series of multi-billionaire private equity fund titans, big oil and gas company executives, the owners of the NYSE, fellow real estate moguls, etc. The policy agenda is to gut worker regulation, gut worker bargaining power, gut antitrust enforcement.  It's the most aggressive antiworker agenda we've seen in decades.

You can keep telling yourself that but the election results. Tell a very different story.  If working-class Americans didn't vote for Trump, he would not have won this election.

If you and other Democrats keep telling yourself that the voters just got it wrong and you don't need to change you're going to keep losing elections.

I don't think he said voters are wrong but fickle. So this doesn't represent some massive realignment but more in this cycle the Republican messaging appealed to them.

Fickle is a wiggle word used to avoid grappling with what has happened.  Trump won the popular vote.  Trump!  He won despite being Trump because the Dems lost the thread.

[DGuller]

It's challenging talking to people who are clearly not thinking things through deeply.  I imagine it is particularly challenging for highly educated professionals, because it's just super hard for us to get into the minds where there isn't much going on, when we constantly deal with people who can operate at a much higher level.  Maybe we need an influx of politicians who aren't that, who can lead people to the right conclusions even through awful logic, because they can better identify with how such people think.

[crazy canuck]

...when we constantly deal with people who can operate at a much higher level.

Your post is representative of the conceit that has cost the Dems support.

[grumbler]

As things stand the Dems have no hope of winning in 28.  The Dems have become the party of the educated elite- and only part of that group.  And the Republicans have become the voice of the wage labourer.

The Dems cannot win if they don't change that.

I'm not sure that the wage laborers like the Republicans so much as they don't like the current status quo and wanted very much to re-roll the dice.

More than half the Trump voters disapproved of Trump, from the exit polls I have seen.

Unless the Trump admin actually makes their situation better, we could see labor wanting to re-roll again in 2028.

[The Minsky Moment]

1984 is kind of funny when you think about it though.  Yes, inflation had been tamed by 1984 - but only after going through a really tough recession from 1980-1982 with really high interest rates, which you're normally think would be a killer for incumbents.

If Reagan had to fight election in 1982, things might have turned out very differently.  In the 82 midterms the GOP was massacred in the House.  Reagan executed a big course correction and there was a cull of the more controversial cabinet members like Watt and Gorsuch.   But what really saved him was that the Volcker medicine did break inflation and the Fed eased up on rates.

That points to the key fact that pundits always ignore because their stock in trade is Monday morning quarterbacking strategy.  The most important attribute any candidate can have is not good campaign tactics.  It's timing. 

[The Minsky Moment]

She asked me about the election and what I was thinking, and I told her I was a near-lifelong Democrat (been a registered Democrat my entire life) who hadn't voted Republican since 2000.  I explained why I liked Harris and Walz, what I didn't like about Trump, etc.  She listened thoughtfully and then replied, "Well, all's I know is prices just keep going up and if that doesn't stop I don't know how I can keep paying for this lease."  With that, I knew she'd be voting for Trump even though she didn't say so, and I suspect millions of Americans had a similar internal dialogue and made the same decision, too.

 Cal your anecdote contradicts your point.

tatoo girl wasn't voting Trump because she thought the Democrats were "elistist" or weren't trying to appeal to the working class, or woke or for any reason having to do with their messaging.  She voted Trump because prices went up.  Which means no message could elect Harris, other than giving her a time machine, Roman dictatorial power to control the economy and a giant price sticker gun.

[crazy canuck]

As things stand the Dems have no hope of winning in 28.  The Dems have become the party of the educated elite- and only part of that group.  And the Republicans have become the voice of the wage labourer.

The Dems cannot win if they don't change that.

I'm not sure that the wage laborers like the Republicans so much as they don't like the current status quo and wanted very much to re-roll the dice.

More than half the Trump voters disapproved of Trump, from the exit polls I have seen.

Unless the Trump admin actually makes their situation better, we could see labor wanting to re-roll again in 2028.

Yes, I agree.  And that the concerning thing. The fact that they voted for Trump even though they disapprove of him shows how far off the mark the Dems were with their policies/messaging/optics.

I fear the Dems are opening the door wide open for Vance.  His rhetoric is all about concerns for the working class and he won't be Trump.

[Caliga]

tatoo girl wasn't voting Trump because she thought the Democrats were "elistist" or weren't trying to appeal to the working class, or woke or for any reason having to do with their messaging.  She voted Trump because prices went up.  Which means no message could elect Harris, other than giving her a time machine, Roman dictatorial power to control the economy and a giant price sticker gun.

I didn't intend to say I thought she was thinking the Democrats were elitist, or anything negative at all about them.  I agree she voted Trump because prices went up.  I guess what I'm questioning is, why when people vote for 'x' when prices go up, they're now voting for Republicans whereas I don't think that was always true.  How can the Democrats recapture that vote?  Maybe the incumbent party just can't hope to?

[Tamas]

Hasn't it been the overwhelming norm for the incumbent President to win a second term?

[Caliga]

Hasn't it been the overwhelming norm for the incumbent President to win a second term?

In recent years, when they don't win a second term, it has been due to economic problems (Carter, Bush I, Trump).

[HVC]

tatoo girl wasn't voting Trump because she thought the Democrats were "elistist" or weren't trying to appeal to the working class, or woke or for any reason having to do with their messaging.  She voted Trump because prices went up.  Which means no message could elect Harris, other than giving her a time machine, Roman dictatorial power to control the economy and a giant price sticker gun.

I didn't intend to say I thought she was thinking the Democrats were elitist, or anything negative at all about them.  I agree she voted Trump because prices went up.  I guess what I'm questioning is, why when people vote for 'x' when prices go up, they're now voting for Republicans whereas I don't think that was always true.  How can the Democrats recapture that vote?  Maybe the incumbent party just can't hope to?

The whole read my lips things led to a democratic win. For presidential elections timing seems to have an over weighed component on the outcome.

Don't know how they (democrats) fucked up congress and e house too though. Riding the wave?