Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[DGuller]

Hopefully this Finlandization will not go the same way it went for Finland, which lost quite a few important pieces of land in the process.

[The Minsky Moment]

That reads like a satire, like an Onion article for Foreign Affairs readers.  Finlandization? FFS.

[Josquius]

Ukraine offering to become a Finland was a valid idea before the invasion. But it's time has likely gone unless Ukraine gets crazy concessions that Russia just won't be accepting

[HVC]

Nato yes, EU no. Postponing NATO membership is basically acknowledging that Russia will attack again sometime in rge future and you don't want to deal with it.

[Zanza]

Seems a completely unrealistic proposal considering Russian aggression. In the status quo before 2014 it was maybe an option. Now I don't see it. It is wishful thinking by these unnamed government sources as it would mean the topic goes away without Germany doing much...

Anyway, Olaf Scholz' government and he himself will not be around anymore the latest by September 2025, possibly earlier as it looks like the German government coalition will dissolve soon.

[Admiral Yi]

Finlandization suddenly looks a lot more palatable. 

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Finlandization suddenly looks a lot more palatable. 

Putin will not stop until he has it all. The only finlandization that will happen is of the rest of Europe before it is removed from the table altogether.
Olaf is a bit spineless. At least he's not alone given how the former West handled this.

[Tamas]

Putin would agree to finlandisation but never honour it. He and his successors won't be able to accept the risk of a west-leaning Ukraine succeeding and prospering, it'd serve as proof that Russia doesn't have to be a feudal hellhole to function.

[Admiral Yi]

Putin will not stop until he has it all. The only finlandization that will happen is of the rest of Europe before it is removed from the table altogether.
Olaf is a bit spineless. At least he's not alone given how the former West handled this.

I didn't say it was good.  But if the choices are finlandization or fighting on without US weapons and money, it might not look as terrible.

[Solmyr]

This would be a good time for Biden to call Ukraine and say they are allowed to use US weapons to blow up Moscow.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Maybe Europe will start stepping up to defend themselves
...

  They'll be dancing to Putin's tune within 4 years.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Maybe Europe will start stepping up to defend themselves
...

  They'll be dancing to Putin's tune within 4 years.

You're optimistic. 2 at most

[Sheilbh]

Biden went to Berlin before the election for what was framed as a meeting about security with Macron, Scholz and Starmer. It attracted a lot of critical attention here that Tusk wasn't invited. Which seems weird given that Poland is doubling their defence budget, on the "front-line" and massively investing in defence infrastructure (including manufacturing) to re-arm.

I see it again today with concern around Trump obviously so, inevitably, the German Defence Minister is travelling to Paris to meet his French counter-part. I think on a European level it would make sense to invite the UK minister, but even just on an EU level it seems mad to not be inviting Poland as a core member of any talks about European security. I'm not sure if it's just the sinews of the Franco-German engine (which hasn't been the engine of Europe for some time now) still being primary in both countries, or a bit of "new Europe" dismissiveness. It seems really weird. I kind of get it when PiS were in charge (but not really), but definitely not now.

Also I basically agree with Ben Wallace that what we don't need is a round of talk about European sovereignty, or a new alliance structure, or thinking about a new "common security, foreign and defence policy". Instead we just need everyone to do as the Poles and boost their defence spending to about 3% of GDP for our existing commmitments to our European and NATO allies - if we spend the money, recruit the service personnel and have the material (and manufacturing base) the rest can follow and be worked on later - if we don't it'll just be meaningless anyway.

[Barrister]

Finlandization suddenly looks a lot more palatable. 

Depends what you mean by Findlandization.

Post WWII the Soviets demanded that Finland more-or-less align it's foreign policy with theirs, but were otherwise unconcerned with how Finland ran it's domestic affairs.  Which allowed the Finns to build a thriving market economy and functioning democracy.

Putin though is very much concerned about Ukraine's internal affairs.  He can not have a majority-russian-speaking country right on his border that has a functioning democracy and rule of law - because it only demonstrates to Russians what they don't have.

Putin would however probably be fine with rump Ukraine becoming another Georgia or Hungary, with sham elections and pro-Russian oligarchs running the show.

[CountDeMoney]

Looks like Germany's not going to wait for this movie to hit theaters in January--

German Cabinet Passes Revamped Military Service Model
By AFP - Agence France Presse
November 6, 2024

The German cabinet on Wednesday signed off plans for a new military service model as Berlin looks to revamp its depleted armed forces in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.barrons.com/news/german-cabinet-passes-revamped-military-service-model-d7353baf

Good luck out there, Europe.  It was fun.