Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Josquius]

On the other hand a reading of the "cabinet reshuffle" is that a further shift to a war economy is planned. Which would indicate the Russian leadership is not nearly as assured of their victory as Western commentators reading their propaganda are.

Surely this would line up with a total victory too?
Ukraine smashed...still need to get things ready for the next conquest. And even if thats not on the horizon tightening control and ramping up the authoritarianism

[Tamas]

On the other hand a reading of the "cabinet reshuffle" is that a further shift to a war economy is planned. Which would indicate the Russian leadership is not nearly as assured of their victory as Western commentators reading their propaganda are.

Surely this would line up with a total victory too?
Ukraine smashed...still need to get things ready for the next conquest. And even if thats not on the horizon tightening control and ramping up the authoritarianism

No. War economy is terrible politically. It's not something you do unless you have to.

[crazy canuck]

Latest story in the NYTimes is not good. No troops, shells or equipment to stabilize.

[Grey Fox]

While true, the NYT is always a couple of days late. Situation seems to have stabilize again a couple of days ago.

[crazy canuck]

Do you have a link, the Guardian is reporting similar information, including a quote from the Ukrainians conceding the Russians are achieving "tactical victories" in the push started last Friday.

[Josquius]

There's so much fog of war. Some saying all is fine. Some all is terrible. There's good reason for the Ukrainians to be spreading both kinds of story.

I do believe the stuff about corruption an poor first line defences but at the same time I have a suspicion Ukraine might be trying to give Russia false optimism.

[Tamas]

Good summary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1q6N4vCNm1I

We just won't know until it is decided. It's interesting (in a terrifying way) to experience how absolutely nothing you can know about the goings of a war from the outside.

[Grey Fox]

Do you have a link, the Guardian is reporting similar information, including a quote from the Ukrainians conceding the Russians are achieving "tactical victories" in the push started last Friday.

Here's Budanov saying the Russian Sumy plan is on hold.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1790338215712337949

And a report with it's telegram source of Ukraine pushing & thwarting Russian incursions.

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1790248365822730685

I am not discrediting what the Time and Guardians are saying, only that they usually are late.

[Tamas]

Sounds like further retreats have been admitted by the Ukrainians and Zelensky has cancelled trips to Spain and Portugal, so it definitely is not looking good at the moment.

[Tamas]

Another good summary, and arguments given for expecting imminent extension of the Russian offensive north of Kharkov: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhsi7RieL-I

[crazy canuck]

Another good piece in the NYTimes today explaining the window that has been presented to the Russians, and the reason to be concerned they might achieve the upper hand in negotiating a resolution on their terms.

The Russians have apparently figured out how to counter the tech advantage the Ukrainian's had and are in a better position to just brute force their way to victory.

Macron may be right, NATO intervention might be required.

[Tamas]

Another good piece in the NYTimes today explaining the window that has been presented to the Russians, and the reason to be concerned they might achieve the upper hand in negotiating a resolution on their terms.

The Russians have apparently figured out how to counter the tech advantage the Ukrainian's had and are in a better position to just brute force their way to victory.

Macron may be right, NATO intervention might be required.

Yeah but I wouldn't jump to such conclusions yet. Sure they are advancing in what was a neglected part of the frontline but there seem to be no breakthrough yet. If they achieve one then we need to see how much capability they have to actually exploit it.

[crazy canuck]

Another good piece in the NYTimes today explaining the window that has been presented to the Russians, and the reason to be concerned they might achieve the upper hand in negotiating a resolution on their terms.

The Russians have apparently figured out how to counter the tech advantage the Ukrainian's had and are in a better position to just brute force their way to victory.

Macron may be right, NATO intervention might be required.

Yeah but I wouldn't jump to such conclusions yet. Sure they are advancing in what was a neglected part of the frontline but there seem to be no breakthrough yet. If they achieve one then we need to see how much capability they have to actually exploit it.

If you can get the article I suggest you read it.  It is an in depth analysis, hardly jumping to conclusions.


Actually I have some gift links left.  Here it is

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/14/us/politics/russia-momentum-ukraine-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.sE0.MCHt.fTpi4n-D2lKH&smid=url-share

[DGuller]

I think in time we'll find that Ukrainians' mean social media game wound up hurting them much more than helping them.  I feel like they used some of their own supply, and for a long time believed themselves to be in a much stronger position than they were.  The last year's counter-offensive with no air power in hindsight was a mistake caused by such hubris, and it depleted their strategic reserves to the point that it left them vulnerable to Moscow Marjorie.

[crazy canuck]

I think in time we'll find that Ukrainians' mean social media game wound up hurting them much more than helping them.  I feel like they used some of their own supply, and for a long time believed themselves to be in a much stronger position than they were.  The last year's counter-offensive with no air power in hindsight was a mistake caused by such hubris, and it depleted their strategic reserves to the point that it left them vulnerable to Moscow Marjorie.

I am not sure how social media matters more than the failure of the West to deliver shells.